Keys to the game: LSU faces Florida State in SEC/ACC challenge

With already a handful of high-major games under its belt, LSU now get to host Florida State in the SEC/ACC Challenge on Tuesday night in the PMAC at 8:00. McMahon’s team has already built a solid resume with wins over Kansas State and UCF and now gets another chance to add to that list tonight.

Let’s dive into the matchup with my keys to the game, numbers to know, and more.

1. Handling Florida State’s defensive pressure

The Seminoles rank No. 3 in the country in turnover percentage defense, No. 4 in steal percentage and No. 6 in block percentage. They are the third tallest team in the country per Kenpom and have a clear identity as they approach games. They want to create chaos and unsettle opposing guards and protect the rim at a high level.

“This is a great opportunity for us tomorrow night. Florida State is elite defensively. They really guard you and are very disruptive on that end of the floor. They have great size and length at every position. They have interchangeable parts and are able to switch and cause a lot of havoc and when you do beat them off the dribble, their rim protection is among the best in the country, so you have to make great decisions there.”

It will be a major challenge for the Tigers’ guards as LSU ranks 263rd in turnover percentage this year, which would play right into Florida State’s hands and trigger their fast break opportunities. Jordan Sears in particular is someone I’m watching for as he going to have a ton of length defending him throughout the game and he’ll have to be smart while still creating for himself and others. In LSU’s three high major games this year, Sears has 13 turnovers, while Cam Carter has nine.

It should be noted that the Seminoles to this point have only played one team in the top 100 of Kenpom (Florida) and six of their seven wins are against teams outside the top 150, so the defensive numbers will be tested against the Tigers tonight.

2. Get Jalen Reed going

This has been a key for me all year, but it rarely happens. I understand the emphasis to use Reed as a roller and try to not just isolate him, but he’s just not getting enough shot attempts right now for how efficient he is. Reed is in the top 150 of the country and is in the top 70 in free throw rate, yet is well behind Sears, Carter, and Miller in usage percentage. 

Reed has just 18 post ups this year, per Synergy and has scored 24 points on those post ups, putting him in the 94th percentile. He’s a good screener, but in 12 possessions as the roll man, Reed has scored just 11 points, putting him in the 39th percentile per Synergy.

In a game against FSU where I expect the guards to struggle some with their aggression, why not give it to Reed and force defenses to adjust or double and play off him? They need another initiator on offense and it’s obvious it needs to be Reed.

3. Limit transition

Florida State ranks 11th in the country in offensive tempo and a lot of that is because of the steals and blocks they get to trigger those fast break opportunities. LSU is susceptible to turning the ball over, 308th in the country in opponent steal percentage.

It’s especially important to try to slow FSU down because in the halfcourt, their offense is very average. The Seminoles are not an elite offensive rebounding team (191st), not an elite 3-point shooting team (195th), and rely on creating offense with their defense. LSU should be the second best defense they’ve played this year, so the hope is the Tigers experience and discipline will slow them down. The Tigers have struggled to defensive rebound at times this year, which is another key to this game with Florida State’s height.

Jamir Watkins is a high usage wing who has scored double figures in all but one game this year and scored 19 on Florida on 7-of-15 shooting. He is also top 40 in the country in free throw rate and second in fouls drawn, presenting a challenge for LSU’s wings. Expect Dji Bailey to start the game on him.

4. Start strong

Playing at home against an ACC opponent in a top 60 clash this early in the season has to create a different level of play than what we’ve seen the past few weeks in the first half. The Tigers have trailed at halftime in four of their last six games with three of those coming to teams outside the top 230 in Kenpom. Were those just lapses in focus or is that a real concern in big games?

I think there the offenses in this game struggle early, especially with the limited shooting on both sides, but it’ll come down to free throws and transition and that could favor LSU at home, but we’ll have to see which version of the Tigers we get on Tuesday night.

It sets up for an awesome game that could be another resume win for LSU as Matt McMahon’s team continues to build a resume for the NCAA Tournament early in the year.