LSU 2024 Opponent Preview: Florida

Florida is back for year three under Billy Napier, hoping to finally turn its fortune around after back-to-back losing seasons. With an intriguing 2024 class coming in, there’s hope, but a brutal schedule will challenge Napier’s squad every step of the way. Here’s an in-depth look at the Gators in 2024.

Previous opponent previews: USC, South Carolina, UCLA, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Alabama

Head coach: Billy Napier (3rd season)

Offensive coordinator: Rob Sale (3rd season)

Defensive coordinator: Austin Armstrong (2nd season)

Last year

A 24-11 road loss to Utah set the tone for the season, but Florida bounced back nicely, beating Tennessee and picking up two more non-conference wins in the first month to get back to a respectable 3-1. The Gators even got to 5-2 on the year after beating Vanderbilt and South Carolina, but then reality set in. It came in the form of a brutal five game stretch against Georgia, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, and Florida State. All five were losses and ended the season at 5-7. Napier falls to 11-14 in his first two years on the job and the seat continues to warm.

Offense

For the second consecutive year, Florida was a high-level team on the ground, with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne leading the way, each averaging over 68 yards per game. Even Graham Mertz put up good numbers, finishing with 2,903 yards, 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions on 72.9 completion percentage. Ricky Pearsall totaled 965 yards and four touchdowns on 65 catches. With all of that being said, the Gators still managed to rank just 63rd in offensive EPA, 59th in points per game, and 46th in yards per game. One reason was the poor offensive line play, allowing 3.25 sacks per game, ranking 114th in the country.

Defense

Even with a couple notable playmakers in  Prince Umanmielen and Shemar James, Florida’s defense was one of the worst in the SEC last season. The Gators ended the year 103rd in pass defense EPA, forcing only three interceptions all year, while teams like Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Missouri carved them up. The Gators were also in the bottom third of the country in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 4.84. Needless to say, this defense did not have anyone drafted.

Key departures

Drafted: WR Ricky Pearsall (31st overall)

Transferred out: RB Trevor Etienne, EDGE Princely Umanmielen, LB Mannie Nunnery, IOL Richie Leonard, CB Jalen Kimber, Micah Mazzcua, CB Jaydon Hill, LB Scooby Williams, DL Chris McLellan, IOL Jalen Farmer, S Kamari Wilson.

The Gators lost 25 players to the transfer portal, but losing Etienne and Umanmielen to rival SEC schools is the headline. Florida’s situation is already dire and losing multiple top-end playmakers only makes the uphill climb more challenging.

Important additions

2024 class: QB DJ Lagway, DL LJ McCray, LB Myles Graham, LB Aaron Chiles, TE Amir Jackson, RB KD Daniels, OT Fletcher Westphal, EDGE Brien Taylor (JUCO).

Transfers in: WR Elijah Badger, CB Cormani McClain, IOL Jason Zandamela, S Asa Turner, CB Jameer Grimsley, LB Grayson Howard, WR Chimere Dike, DL Joey Slackman, OT Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson.

Florida’s 2024 class ranked No. 10 nationally and No. 7 in the SEC, showing impressive recruiting chops from Napier and his staff to help get some major players both in the state and from competitive recruiting grounds like Maryland, Georgia, and Texas.Lagway and McCray are two top 10 talents who can instill some confidence in Florida fans that things are on an upwards trajectory. The Gators also only took 14 transfers, prioritizing quality over quantity. Napier added some key defensive talent with Grimsley, McClain, Turner, and Howard.

Going into 2024

Top returners: WR Eugene Wilson, QB Graham Mertz, S Jordan Castell, CB Jason Marshall, LB Shemar James, RB Montrell Johnson, C Jake Slaughter.

Napier has been able to keep most of his top talent from last year and this group will go a long way in exceeding expectations in 2024. Mertz showed last year he’s a capable quarterback that won’t lose you the game, while Johnson and Wilson will be the go-to playmakers. I’m not sure what to make of this defense, but I like James in the heart of it.

Expectations

With one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, Florida could legitimately be a top 30 team in the country this year and still not make a bowl game. The game against Miami in the season-opener at home is absolutely pivotal for Napier to begin the year. Lose that one and you might as well pack it up. Not only is the SEC schedule ridiculous, but the non-conference is Miami, Samford, UCF, and Florida State. Vegas has the Gators win total at 4.5 and it leans over. If Napier gets to 5-7 this year, that should be seen as a solid year. If he gets to 6-6 he should get an extension. 

Early thoughts on LSU vs. Florida

The Gators get LSU in the heart of their brutal stretch to close the season with Georgia, Texas, LSU Ole Miss, and Florida State. Who knows where their mindset will be at this point, while LSU is coming off of the Alabama game. On paper, I don’t think there are enough playmakers on Florida’s defense to really disrupt LSU’s offensive line or Nussmeier at quarterback. Similar to last year, I expect a ton of points and the Gators to find success with their balanced offense. This game being played in The Swamp certainly makes it a more even contest than if it were in Tiger Stadium, but LSU should still be favored and needs this win going into the final weeks of the regular season.