LSU 2024 Opponent Preview: USC

LSU faces USC in Week 1 on Sunday night in Las Vegas to kickoff the season. It’s another neutral site non-conference contest where all eyes will be on the Tigers, marking its first opportunity for college football fans across the country to see Garrett Nussmeier, Kyren Lacy, and Brian Kelly’s new-look defense as he enters year three at the helm in Baton Rouge.

We’ll be diving into LSU’s 2024 schedule in the coming week, looking at the top opponents in depth as we approach the month of July. Today, we start with USC, a fascinating squad with a plethora of changes entering 2024.

Head coach: Lincoln Riley (3rd season)

Offensive coordinator: John Henson (2nd season)

Defensive coordinator: D’Anton Lynn (1st season)  / Eric Henderson (1st season)

Last year

The Trojans ended last season 8-5 overall and 5-4 in the final season of the PAC-12, beating Louisville in their bowl game in a game without Caleb Williams.  The highlights of the year include a road win at Colorado followed by a triple OT win over Arizona to get to 6–0 before the wheels fell off in the back half of the season. A blowout loss at Notre Dame kickstarted the avalanche, while Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA all overwhelmed USC’s awful defense. Even the lone win in these final six games was a 50-49 victory over California. 

Offense

Caleb Williams was once again stellar, ending the year with 30 touchdowns to five interceptions with 3,633 yards in 12 games. The eventual No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft constantly got the Trojans out of trouble with his exceptional playmaking ability and led USC to average nearly 42 points per game. Tahj Washington led the team in receiving with 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns on 59 receptions, while Brenden Rice was a clear second option with 791 yards and 12 touchdowns on 45 catches. Both were drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Marshall Lloyd was the lead back, ending with 820 yards and nine touchdowns on 116 carries.

Defense

It was a disastrous season for USC on defense, ending 121st in points allowed per game and 116th in yards allowed per game. USC had defensive back Calen Bullock drafted in the third round and Solomon Byrd taken in the seventh round of the NFL Draft, but the overall talent and playmaking was absent from this Trojan defense outside of those two. USC was 115th in pass defense EPA and 78th in run defense EPA, putting them well outside of the top 100 overall in the country.

Offseason moves

Notable departures

Drafted: QB Caleb Williams (1st overall), DB Calen Bullock (78th overall), RB Marshawn Lloyd (88th overall), OG Jarrett Kingston (215th overall), WR Brenden Rice (225th overall), DE Solomon Byrd (238 overall), WR Tahj Washington (241 overall)

Transfers out: DL Stanley Ta’ufo’ou,S Xamarion Gordon, DL Jamar Sekona, CB Tre’Quon Fegans, EDGE Romello Height, WR Mario Williams, WR Dorian Singer, EDGE Korey Foreman, LB Tackett Curtis, CB Fabian Ross, QB Malachi Nelson, OT Michael Tarquin, WR Micheal Jackson, CB Domani Jackson, WR Raleek Brown, CB Ceyair Wright.

The Trojans had 30 players transfer out this offseason and had seven drafted, meaning they’ll be replacing about 43.5 percent of their 85-man roster from last year. With the defensive coaching changes, losing this many defensive players is not a shock, but the sheer amount of players from California leaving the state is pretty staggering. It’s essentially a clean slate for the Trojans’ staff on both sides.

Important additions (Ranking)

2024 Class: EDGE Kameryn Fountain (No. 63), WR Xavier Jordan (No. 98), LB Elijah Newby (No. 153), CB Marcelles Williams (No. 160), DL Carlon Jones (No. 212), TE Walter Matthews (No. 235)

Transfers in: S Kamari Ramsey, CB John Humphrey, CB Greedy Vance, LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, QB Jayden Maiava, S Akili Arnold, RB Woody Marks, DL Nate Clifton.

The defensive talent is intriguing, especially in the secondary with Ramsey, Humphrey, Arnold, and Vance, All four will be competing for starting jobs this fall. The addition of Maiava helps bring competition and insurance to the quarterback position this fall. We’ll see if any of these freshmen defensive players can break through this year on a defense that will be rebuilding from the ground up.

Going into 2024

Top returners: WR Zachariah Branch, DT Bear Alexander, C Jonah Monheim, WR Duce Robinson, QB Miller Moss, OG Emmanuel Pregnon, LB Eric Gentry

The top-end talent on this team has a lot of question marks. Branch is clearly the most explosive player on the team and someone who will single-handedly change games as both a return man and a receiver in 2024, but after him you have players like Alexander, Moss, and Robinson who have to prove themselves, with a couple of offensive linemen hoping to take a step forward. Moss especially has a lot on his shoulders replacing Caleb Williams. Lincoln Riley has gone from one NFL QB to the next for the better part of the last decade and now he has a question mark with Moss as his QB1. The portal haul is enticing, but if this group does not collectively take a step forward in 2024 it could get shaky in a hurry for the Trojans. 

Expectations

USC’s win total is at 7.5 right now and it’s reasonable to expect some lumps for Riley’s team in year one in the Big 10. With LSU, Utah State, and Notre Dame in the non-conference, there are no cupcakes on the schedule for the Trojans. Then, they get Michigan, Penn State, Washington, and UCLA with three of those on the road. If Riley pulls out eight wins with this schedule his team will end the year comfortably in the top 25 and it will be seen as a win for the program in the midst of a rebuild on both sides. 

Ultimately, with question marks at quarterback and a limited number of playmakers, this does not have the feel of a team that can just outscore teams – especially not in the uber-physical Big 10. Just getting to a bowl game could prove challenging.

Early thoughts on LSU vs. USC

LSU is up to 6.5 point favorites currently and I wouldn’t be shocked if that got to a full touchdown before kickoff. LSU has plenty of questions on its own, and if Caleb Williams was still starting at quarterback for the Trojans I would have serious question marks, but he’s not. LSU should have the advantage at quarterback and offensive line and at least a handful of top-end playmakers on defense in Harold Perkins and some talented edge rushers that can unsettle Moss and the offense some.

The total for this game in Vegas is currently 65.5 which is incredibly high for a week one game, but somehow also feels low since I expect one of these teams to hit 40+. For Brian Kelly, this is a must-win game to show he is capable of getting this LSU program where it needs to go. There will be several much tougher games on the schedule than a neutral against a USC team that doesn’t have its footing. A loss would be catastrophic to the playoff chances. LSU should get the win, though. At least, that’s how I feel two months out from game week.