LSU Opponent Preview 2023: Ole Miss

Last year, LSU marked the end of a seven-game win streak and a top-ten ranking for Ole Miss as the Tigers took down Lane Kiffin’s team with a 45-20 win, thrusting the Tigers into the backhalf of their schedule with ample confidence. Now, Kelly and Kiffin are no longer the fresh faces in the league and have expectations to make the most of their situations. The two will meet Saturday, Sept. 30 in Oxford, Mississippi.

We’re continuing our opponent preview series today with Ole Miss, another SEC West foe with decades of history.

Prior teams: Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas

Head coach: Lane Kiffin

Offensive coordinators: John David Baker (3rd Season), Charlie Weis Jr. (1st Season)

Defensive coordinator: Pete Golding (1st Season)

Last year

After sweeping through their four non-conference games, the Rebels stretched their win streak to seven with wins over Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Auburn to start conference play. Unfortunately for Kiffin’s team, the rest of the schedule was not as easy to navigate, losing four of the last five before also losing to Texas Tech in the TexAct Bowl. ending the season at 8-5.

In the last two years, the Rebels are 18-8 overall and 10-6 in SEC play, but have lost both bowl games. Through three years, Kiffin is the only coach in Ole Miss history to not have a losing record.

Offense

Ending the year in 23rd in the country in yards per play and 8th in yards per game, Ole Miss leaned heavily on the run game behind running back Quinshon Judkins. The Rebels ended the year with the third most rushing yards per game of any team in the country and posted an impressive 5.43 yards per carry. Judkins was one of the best freshmen in the country, posting 1,567 yards and 16 touchdowns on 274 carries, while Sach Evans and quarterback Jaxson Dart combined for over 1,500 yards on the ground

Through the air, Dart was fine, completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, but there were several moments where Dart’s shortcomings limited this offense’s potential. Malik Heath and Jonathan Mingo were excellent receivers, both averaging over 16 yards per reception.

Defense

Ole Miss ranked 90th in EPA per play on defense, 75th in yards allowed per game, 67th in 3rd down defense and 51st in tackles for loss. Even though the numbers don’t support it, it felt like the Rebels’ defense still kept games in reach, only allowing three teams to score over 34 points all year. Most games were played in the 20s. Ole Miss did not have a defensive player on the first or second team all-conference team and just one defensive draft pick. 

Offseason moves

Notable departures

Drafted: WR Jonathan Mingo (39th overall, 2nd round), LB Tavius Robinson (124, 4th round), RB Zach Evans (215 overall, 6th round), G Nick Broeker (230 overall, 7th round)

Transferred: DB Braxton Myers, TE Casey Kelly, CB Davison Igbinosun, S Tysheem Johnson, DL JJ Hawkins, WR Brandon Buckhalter, CB Markevious Brown

Not a bad offseason for transfer portal departures, with just a few starting-caliber players in Johnson, Brown, and Igbinosun in the secondary. Obviously losing Mingo and Broeker in the draft are also players to replace.

Big time additions

2023 Freshmen: LB Sundarine Perkins, WR Ayden Williams, RB Kedrick Reescano, IOL Brycen Sanders

Transfers: QB Walker Howard, QB Spencer Sanders, DB DeShawn Gaddie, TE Caden Prieskon, DL Josh Harris, IOL Victor Curne, LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, LB Monty Montgomery, WR Tre Harris, S John Saunders, EDGE Isaac Ukwu, CB Jadon Canady, CB Justin Hodges, WR Zakhari Franklin.

Kiffin has once again attacked the transfer portal with great success. A ton of high-level talent and four-star portal players according to On3’s college ratings. The receiver haul is especially impressive with Franklin and Harris. Adding the two quarterbacks makes for a crowded room, but there’s a ton of competition for Kiffin to work with. Then, you can see the attempt at rebuilding the secondary through the portal as well.

Going into 2023

Top Returners: RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Jordan Watkins, LB Ashanti Cistrunk, S Ladarius Tennison

Quietly, Ole Miss has a tone of turnover from last year’s roster, with its top four tacklers gone on defense, top two receivers gone, a whole new quarterback room, and a new defensive coordinator. Still, there’s enough talent on this roster for the Rebels to be competitive in the SEC West once again if they can nail down the quarterback position and find a more balanced offensive attack than last year. One of the more interesting teams in the conference with a lot of unknowns and a wildcard head coach who’s always looking to get a step ahead.

Expectations

A somewhat challenging non-conference slate for an SEC team, Kiffin’s team has to go to Tulane week two, then return to Oxford to host a Georgia Tech team that should be better than last year. After that, Ole Miss has the SEC West and Georgia and Vanderbilt from the SEC East. Even if the Rebels are better this year, the schedule is much more challenging, setting up for potentially a 7 or 8 win season. Vegas has the Rebels at 7.5 at the moment, which is on par with where I’m at with this team on paper.

Early LSU vs. Ole Miss game outlook

Last year, Harold Perkins swarmed Jaxon Dart while the Tigers’ defense slowly suffocated the Ole Miss run game and forced Dart to beat them. The Rebels will need a far more reliable passing game from whoever the quarterback is and then we could be looking at more of a shootout.

I have major questions about the Ole Miss defense at this point and really aren’t sure they have the talent to execute what golding schemes up. There’s really promising freshmen and transfer talent coming in, but at the same time, new pieces aren’t always going to pan out. 

This game being in Oxford makes it a bit more challenging, but the Rebels come off of a game at Alabama, while LSU has a home game against Arkansas the week before. Should be a fun matchup, but I trust the Tigers’ defense much more on paper.