LSU Opponent Preview: Florida State reloads, eyes ACC title

We are just 40 days away from Aug. 1 and 25 days from SEC media days on July 17, meaning it’s time to start our dive into previewing the 2023 football season. LSU is a consensus top ten team in the country at this point in the summer and with that comes exciting expectations in Baton Rouge to compete for an SEC title and a national championship in Brian Kelly’s second year.

Today we’re starting our opponent preview series, where we preview the 11 FBS teams on LSU’s schedule, looking at everything to know about the teams and an early outlook at the game.

Today, we have LSU’s first opponent, Florida State. The Tigers and Seminoles face off on Sunday, Sept. 3 in Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET in what’s going to be a heavyweight bout to kickoff the year.

Here’s everything to know about the Seminoles in 2023.

Head coach: Mike Norvell (4th season)

Offensive coordinator: Alex Atkins (2nd season)

Defensive coordinator: Adam fuller (4th season)

Last year

A one-point win over LSU and a four-point win over Louisville to start the season catapulted Florida State into its best season since 2016 with a 10-3 record, including a bowl win. In Mike Norvell’s third season, it appears as though Florida State has turned the corner, ending the 2022 season No. 11 in the country after a six-game win streak. 

Offense

The Seminoles were led by the dynamic Jordan Travis at quarterback, Johnny Wilson at receiver, and a trio of dynamic backs carrying the ball. The talent yielded consistent success, ending the year 7th in yards per play, 14th in offensive EPA per play, 10th in yards per game, 14th in passing efficiency, and 8th in yards per rush. The efficiency of the offense also showed in the fact the Seminoles finished fourth in the country in 3rd down conversion percentage at 51.2 percent. 

During the six-game win streak to end the season, Florida State scored at least 35 points in every game and averaged 42.2 points per contest 

Defense

It was a more inconsistent year for Norvell’s defense, but overall, the stats are flattering to Florida State. Ending the year 14th in yards per play allowed and 15 in yards per game allowed and 33rd in EPA per play.

A lot hinged on the success of the pass rush, and subsequently, the pass defense, allowing just 6.16 yards per attempt, 12th best in the country. All-American Jammie Robinson ended the year with 99 tackles at safety and was one of the best defensive players in the ACC, while Jared Verse had nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss at defensive end.

Offseason moves

Major departures

Drafted: S Jammie Robinson (145 Overall, 5th round)

Transferred: WR Malik McCLain, WR Mycah Pittman, DL Derrick McLendon, LB Brendan Gant, RB Treshaun Ward, OT Rodd Orr, S Sam McCall.

Pittman and Ward were contributors last year, but the offense should be able to replace their production pretty easily. The defensive departures were mostly rotation players who were replaced by transfers, so there’s not a lot of panic when looking at this group.

Big time additions

2023 Freshmen: WR Hykeem Williams, DE Lamont Green, DE Jaden Jones, OT Lucas Simmons, S KJ Kirkland.

Transfers: WR Keon Coleman, TE Kyle Morlock, DL Braden Fiske, OT Jeremiah Byers, DE Gilbert Edmond, IOL Casey Roddick, CB Fentrell Cypress, TE Jadeim Bell,  DL Darrell Jackson, IOL Kiondre Jones

The Seminoles have likely added at least six players from the portal that will start in Coleman, Roddick, Byers, Bell, Fiske, and Cypress  and beyond that, there are some nice depth pieces along the line of scrimmage and in the secondary. It’s very similar to how LSU used the portal this year, and it allows Florida State to reload and improve at some key positions. 

Overall, Florida State lost 22 players to the portal, but only one was rated as a four star portal prospect. Meanwhile, Norvell added 11 players in the portal and six were rated as four-star transfers. Just like LSU, the Seminoles are ready to compete right now and this was another big swing at doing just that.

Going into 2023

Obviously, you start with the game against LSU as the premier game of the opening week. The winner of that will immediately rocket up the rankings and into national spotlight, while the other resets and prepares for conference play. Florida State has LSU, Florida, Southern Miss, and North Alabama in its non-conference, and in conference have a favorable schedule without NC State, Louisville, or North Carolina on the docket.

Expectations

Win the ACC. Pretty simple. Clemson and Florida State are far and away the betting favorites to win the conference right now, with Clemson at +150 and Florida State at +170 on Fanduel and Caesars. A team that returns 16 starters from a 10-win team, including star quarterback Jordan Travis should have expectations of winning the conference and being in contention for the college football playoff. LSU and Clemson games are obviously huge in getting to that point, but that’s where FSU fans want to be in year four of Norvell.

Early LSU vs Florida State outlook

The similarities between these two teams run deep from the quarterback play to the receiver talent to the incoming transfers that will contribute on both sides. Ultimately, when I look back on last year’s game it was a team in the third year of Norvell against a team in the first year of Kelly and LSU was still an extra point away from sending the game to overtime.

Maason played one series. Harold Perkins only played special teams. Cam Wire was starting at tackle. Jayden Daniels had no idea what the pass game was supposed to look like. Malik Nabers fumbled two punts. All of this and LSU still has enough talent to push FSU to the absolute brink last year.

It’s going to be an incredibly fun matchup, and this time it’s in Orlando instead of New Orleans, but the Tigers are going to be significantly better in this game than they were in the Superdome last year. Both teams will be ready to play, I just trust LSU’s defensive talent more right now with Smith, Mekhi Wingo, and Perkins leading the way.