LSU WBB vs. South Carolina preview part 2: Keys to the game

It’s a game so big it needs two previews. Part one examined the various storylines surrounding the game, what is at stake, and what Kim Mulkey’s approach is for Sunday. Today, we’re looking at the keys to the game, the details, and what to watch for on the court on Sunday at 1 p.m. on ESPN.

It’s no secret that the Tigers are underdogs going into this contest, but how can LSU pull off the upset on national TV and put itself in the national title contender status? Let’s dig into it.

What UConn did well

UConn and Geno Auriemma were the latest to fall to South Carolina in a top-five matchup last weekend, but the Huskies were able to hang with the Gamecocks even without Paige Buekers and Azzi Fudd. Watching the game, it was evident how fundamental and disciplined UConn was in their scouting report against South Carolina.

Aaliyah Boston, the reigning Player of the Year,was doubled and triple teamed on every catch, but that’s normal. The impressive part was that UConn knew exactly who to help off of. We’ll get into the guards of South Carolina later, but it’s a team that shoots even less threes than LSU and rarely has more than two shooters on the court together.

via GIPHY

On offense, the Huskies took advantage of a key principle of South Carolina’s defense: Not over helping. Head coach Dawn Staley plays a very direct and straightforward man to man style of defense that often leaves players on islands both in the post and on the perimeter with limited help. As a result, UConn was able to do two things, effectively post up and run a ton of off ball screens.

Look at this clear out post up action. There’s not another SC player with a foot even in the paint to help or dig.

via GIPHY

The BIG problem

The Gamecocks are known for their size with Boston at 6-foot-5, Kamilla Cardoso at 6-foot-7, Laeticia Amihere at 6-foot-4, and Ashlyn Watkins at 6-foot-3, and all four play significant minutes. In fact, Staley only has four players on her roster under 6-feet tall. The result has been a dominant rebounding advantage in every game, averaging 21.6 more boards than their opponents.

While LSU is not far behind, with a rebounding margin of plus-20.5 per game, there have been moments of vulnerability. We saw issues against Auburn and in the first half against Tennessee where the Tigers really struggled on the defensive glass. Angel Reese is a fantastic rebounder, but over 42 percent of her boards are on the offensive end. South Carolina is taller and going to hammer the paint, looking to grab any miss. The Gamecocks also have the depth to stay fresh, stay tall, and stay aggressive on the boards.

If LSU does not rebound with SC, then it will be challenging to win this game.

“What is going to be very difficult is, we’re not going to grow to be 6-7 and 6-5 overnight,” Mulkey said. “They are relentless on the offensive boards. They can get to balls up there and it doesn’t matter how much you box them out. Those rebounds are a big concern.”

Also, I think LSU needs to double Boston in the post. Can not let your bigs get in foul trouble in this game. Have to get the ball out of Boston’s hands to protect your bigs.

South Carolina vs. Angel Reese

As I mentioned in the UConn tab, South Carolina likely won’t be doubling the post when Angel Reese or LaDahzia Williams catches the ball. That presents a ton of opportunities for points and free throws for both, but Reese will need to be more efficient. In conference play, she’s shooting 44.4 percent from the field, which is fine, but also speaks to the ups and downs in efficiency she’s had. Whether it’s Boston, Cordoso, or Amihere guarding her, I don’t expect double teams, but maybe some digs here and there. All eyes will be on Reese and this is a great situation for her to shine.

“They don’t have to send two or three to Angel, they’re that good. No I don’t expect it,” Mulkey said. “If you watch South Carolina play, they’re just good at every position and they don’t get rattled. When I look at South Carolina and their size it reminds me of the bigs that I had together [at Baylor]. I don’t anticipate South Carolina worrying about Angel Reese.”

I’d also like to see Reese get the ball in transition to use her guard skills and speed to try to get advantageous drives to either get to the rim or get fouled.

Backcourt vs. Backcourt

Zia Cooke and Alexis Morris are the headliners here and there are a lot of similarities in their games. Cooke averages 14.8 points, Morris 14. Cooke shoots 36 percent from three on about five threes per game, Morris shoots 39 percent on nearly four per game. Both are score-first guards with the ability to make the right pass on teams with ample weapons. 

“They’re seeing so many zones and sagging man to man defenses that it’s tough to get touches in there, so Aaliyah is getting a lot of hers off the boards as teams leave those perimeter players open. You gotta pick your poison, so that’s why she’s getting a lot of looks and that’s probably why [Cooke] is their leading scorer. She hit big shots last year and now Cooke is their leader on the perimeter.” 

The difference is, South Carolina can still win this game without Cooke scoring double figures, while I don’t think LSU can win if Morris doesn’t have a really good game. We saw Morris light up Tennessee and that might be what it takes to beat South Carolina. There are a lot of opportunities to drive this defense considering they aren’t over helping or sagging. Morris needs to be aggressive and set the tone. Then, freshman wing Flau’jae Johnson will follow.

Cooke is the only consistent 3-point threat the Gamecocks have, as the only player who even attempts more than 2.5 per game. Brea Beal and Brea Hall are both extremely tough guards for Staley and can shoot when necessary, but they do their damage in different ways with their defense and athleticism. Raven Johnson and Kierra Fletcher both average just four points per game, but are two more names to know because of their defense and physicality as guards.

It would be huge if one of Last Tear Poa or Kateri Poole played well for LSU.

The unknown variable: 3-point shooting

This is a challenging dynamic. I’ve just told you that SC doesn’t overhelp, so they are hardly put in rotation on the perimeter, and as a result only allow teams to make 3.9 on 24.1 percent shooting. Last year, the two teams combined to take just 17 3-pointers. How will 3-point shooting determine the outcome of this game?

The reason is because of LSU’s potential to get hot. Morris and Johnson are both shooting over 35 percent from deep, while Poole is over 40 percent. The real gamebreaker would be a big game from Jasmine Carson, though.

After three straight lackluster games, can Carson bounce back to play like she did against Alabama or Tulane on the road? She’s the best shooter on this team and if she can see a couple go down, it changes the complexion of this game.

The Tigers are shooting 35.4 percent from 3-point range in conference, while South Carolina is shooting 29.9 percent. To put it simply, LSU is the much better shooting team and has the potential to make three or four more 3-pointers than South Carolina. That could be exactly what the Tigers need to keep pace and have a shot down the stretch.

I’ll be watching in transition especially. LSU needs to be looking for the quick hitters to the corner or weak side in transition to any of those aforementioned shooters. Fly Carson off of pin downs in the halfcourt and let her try her hand. I don’t see the Tigers beating South Carolina if they don’t make at least five 3-pointers.