Previewing LSU vs. Kentucky: Can Tigers win first road game?

Coming off of an exhilarating win over Arkansas to start SEC play, LSU now heads to Kentucky to take on one of the more intriguing teams in the country at 7 p.m. on Tuesday. John Calipari’s Wildcats are 9-4, but still loaded with talent to be dangerous.

Under Matt McMahon, LSU is now 12-1 on the season and has continued to make their claim for being in the top half of the conference. With still 17 more games in conference left to play, there’s a lot of work to do, but the Tigers set themselves up nicely by winning their first game.

Now, let’s take a look ahead at what to expect from tonight’s game. I’ll include LSU’s perspective, everything to know about Kentucky, and how I see the matchup shaking out. Here we go.

Bracketology

Joe Lunardi of ESPN currently has LSU in “The First Four Out” tab in his latest Bracketology. Just like with anything that comes out this early, we can only take it with a grain of salt, but as the Tigers’ strength of schedule continues to improve (now 328th), they will be taken more seriously. Arkansas is a resume win and there will be plenty of more opportunities to continue to improve the national perception.

First true road game

I can’t emphasize enough how much the road/home difference is in college basketball. Playing in a true road game for the first time is something that almost every team struggles with. Arkansas lost to LSU, Kentucky lost to Gonzaga and Missouri, Baylor lost to Iowa State, UConn lost to Xavier, Gonzaga lost to Texas, and the list goes on. Remember when LSU played Auburn on the road to open SEC play last year? That’s just how this goes.

There’s a reason Kentucky is almost a 10-point favorite, and it’s not because they’re that much better. This is the first time the Tigers will be in this time of environment. If they crumble under the pressure, I won’t be overreacting.

Kentucky’s season

The Wildcats are ranked 14th in Kenpom, 41st in the NET Rating, and not ranked in the latest AP Poll. The talent is obvious: Oscar Tshiebwe, Jacob Toppin, Cason Wallace, Sahvir Wheeler and Antonio Reeves is a loaded starting lineup on paper. Unfortunately, it hasn’t come together for Kentucky like Calipari had hoped. Statistically, the Tigers look fine, ranking in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on Kenpom, but watching their games tells a different story.

Missouri, UCLA, and Gonzaga played them off the court, while the Michigan State loss was in double overtime. The Wildcats have as many wins over top 100 teams as LSU, only beating Yale and Michigan by a combined 14 points. 

It’s not hard to see why the NET rating is so low on the Wildcats, as they continue to work to put the pieces together.

LSU’s biggest advantage 

The Tigers’ defense matches up pretty well with Kentucky’s personnel. Hill is an obvious matchup for Wheeler while Williams can bang with Tshiebwe. The 2-4s are flexible. LSU’s defense does a great job of limiting easy assists, and that’s what the Wildcats do well with Wheeler at point guard. The Tigers stay home on shooters and will force Wheeler, Tshiebwe and Toppin to finish over them inside and not give easy threes for Reeves (41% from 3) and Wallace (47.5% from three). 

Biggest concern: Oscar Tshiebwe

The reigning Naismith Player of the Year, Tchiebwe will be the best big LSU has faced this year by a wide margin. KJ Williams has been awesome this season and is rebounding at an awesome rate, but Tshiebwe is a different animal. In 2020 he was No. 1 in offensive rebounding percentage. In 2022 he was No. 2. This year he’s No. 3. Kentucky’s offensive rebounding as a team, ranks No. 3 in the country and they don’t settle for threes either, just 280th in 3-point attempt rate.

Expectation

I don’t expect LSU to win this game. Playing their first road game of the year against a desperate Kentucky team that lost to Missouri opens the door for the Wildcats to come out throwing haymakers. LSU will need to shoot the ball extremely well from deep and have Adam Miller and Cam Hayes clicking as scoring guards. KJ Williams doesn’t draw fouls at a high clip, so Kentucky won’t have to worry about Tshiebwe getting into foul trouble, but I do worry about him drawing fouls on the Tigers’ bigs. If this was a neutral court game or in Baton Rouge, I actually like the matchup for LSU, but it’s not. Sometimes these games are simple. 

It would take an incredible effort to pull off this road win. If they do, the Tigers are in a great position moving forward. If not, then it’s onto Texas A&M.