Where LSU lands in ESPN's Pre-Spring SP+ rankings

Earlier this month, Bill Connelly released his pre-spring SP+ projections, rating every team in the country, projecting them for the 2024 season. Obviously, it’s challenging considering the amount of uncertainties at hand and the second transfer portal window, but Connelly has remained at the forefront of building a model that helps us rate and evaluate teams every season. 

Connelly’s numbers are on ESPN+ and it also includes a full layout of the factors and their weight in the equation when it comes to predicting the year ahead. In short, it’s returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. The attempt is to keep this as objective as possible from Bill. There will be updates after spring and before the fall, but it’s interesting to see where LSU lands early in the year.

Last year, LSU finished with the No. 1 offensive efficiency in SP+, but had the No. 106 defense and 116th ranked special teams, dropping the Tigers to No. 13 overall.

In the first SP+ rankings of the year, LSU checks in at No. 10 overall, with the No. 3 offense, No. 34 defense, and the No. 83 special teams (negligible). Here are the full rankings, but let’s look at what to make of these rankings.

LSU Offensively

Expectations are tame for LSU at this point, considering the massive amount of production the Tigers have lost from last season with Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas. Those are three players likely taken in the top half of the first round. If you told LSU fans they’d end up with the No. 3 offense in 2024 they’d sign up in a heartbeat.

Garrett Nussmeier takes over the reigns with some new faces on the outside paired with a small, but talented, running back room. The real strength of this offense in 2024 is the offensive line, which projects to be one of the best in the country, if not the best. In a college football landscape with so much turnover and uncertainty, the fact LSU’s offensive line has multiple NFL draft picks and two years of experience together raises the floor of this unit significantly and potentially puts them in front of other teams with uncertainty on the line.

LSU is only behind Oregon and Georgia on offense, ahead of Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and others that may have more proven skill position players. Oregon, Georgia, and LSU being the top three show the importance of the offensive line in SP+ and it makes sense when projecting so early.

Nussmeier should be a top five quarterback in the conference and he will ultimately have to be elite to get this offense back to being top three in the country, so his development will be one to watch this spring. Still, coming off of the year LSU had in 2023, a top five offense would further electrify Baton Rouge and cement the Tigers as a program that develops offensive production every year.

LSU Defensively

LSU ranks 34th in defense, the worst of any team in the top 18 by 10 spots. After the abysmal showing in 2023, LSU fans would be thrilled to watch a top 40 defense in 2024. Brian Kelly turned over his entire defensive staff after the struggles last year, but has not brought in a slew of transfers. He’s instead focused on development and coaching of the young players on hand.

The defensive backfield is still a major question mark, as is the defensive line quality and the development and placement of Harold Perkins. That’s why we have the spring and summer months to further evaluate what LSU is heading into this season. I am optimistic Blake Baker can get this defense inside the top 40, but it will take a ton of work and development we haven’t seen in the past two years in order to achieve that. 

When looking at why LSU is ranked No. 34 in the country on SP+, we have to remember the factors into this equation: returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. 

Recent history has been poor, but LSU has a good amount of returning production and is obviously high in the recruiting rankings over the past three years which give the Tigers a boost. Players like Harold Perkins, Dashawn Womack, Sage Ryan, Javien Toviano, Kylin Jackson, and Whit Weeks were all highly rated and assuredly boosts the Tigers’ defensive potential and therefore their SP+ ranking.

Overall

LSU’s success, recruiting, and returning production are enough to warrant being ranked No. 10, but Connelly said it himself he was surprised to see LSU that high. The Tigers are No. 12 in ESPN’s Way-Too-early top 25 rankings and No. 18 in Pro Football Focus’ rankings.

We’ll continue to gain clarity as the season approaches, but the potential is still there for LSU to be a playoff team in 2024. Every team in America has question marks, some with coaching changes, some with quarterback changes, and others still looking for answers from the past season. LSU’s alignment under Brian Kelly is one of its biggest strengths as the Tigers continue to compete with the top of the sport, but now it’s about developing this program into a title contender.