Will LSU make the NIT on Selection Sunday?

LSU lost to Mississippi State 70-60 on Thursday afternoon in the second round of the SEC tournament, ending the Tigers’ slim hopes of reaching the NCAA tournament and dropping them to 17-15 on the season.

LSU surpassed expectations with a 9-9 conference record, but after the loss, one question lingers: Was that the final game of the season for this LSU team? 

Head coach Matt McMahon said earlier this season that making the NIT would be a significant step for this team in raising the standards for this program. Now, the Tigers will have to wait until after the NCAA Tournament Bracket is revealed to see if they make the NIT. Here’s everything to know and their potential bid to the NIT at the moment.

How the NIT field is selected now

The NIT used to be a field of 32 with the only automatic qualifiers being regular season conference champions that did not make the NCAA Tournament. That largely applied to mid-majors that won the conference but lost in the conference tournament. That is no longer the case.

Now, it’s still a 32-team bracket, but the only automatic selections are from the six high-major conferences… “The NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of won-loss record, will be selected.  Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT. Once the 12 automatic qualifying schools have been selected, the NIT Committee will select the 20 best teams available to complete the tournament’s 32-team field.”

With that being the case, LSU has a real chance at making the field.

The SEC Breakdown

The SEC is currently a 7-bid league after Mississippi State locked in a spot in the field with the win over LSU. Now, all eyes turn to Texas A&M who is in the “First Four Out” classification according to Joe Lunardi. The Aggies play Ole Miss on Thursday evening with a chance to stay alive, but it’s unclear if that win would be enough to get the Aggies in the field.

A loss and A&M is likely out. A win and they’re potentially in. Two wins and they’re a lock. The Aggies making the NCAA Tournament would put LSU in position to receive an automatic big to the NIT based on the NET. 

Current NET Rankings for the next four SEC Teams entering Thursday

92 Ole Miss

95 LSU

100 Georgia

112 Arkansas

Georgia and Arkansas are still looking to extend their run in the SEC Tournament and another win or two could propel them above LSU. The NET will be continuously refreshed throughout the coming days as it fluctuates based on opponents and recent results, but at the moment, if A&M gets into the NCAA Tournament, LSU would be in the NIT.

Could LSU get an at-large bid to the NIT?

The NIT committee will have full discretion to pick the next 20 teams in the field for the NIT and since this is the first year of this format, we don’t have any ideas as to what they are looking at. LSU is now 93rd in Kenpom, 95th in the NET, but 4-8 now in Q1 games and 12-1 in Q3/4.

The Tigers have to hope the Q1 wins and conference quality are heavily weighed, because if not, the metrics don’t love LSU here. If the tournament was solely based on metrics I think LSU would be one of the last few teams in the field. 

Here’s a potential NIT field:

Auto bids

SEC: Texas A&M, Ole Miss

Big 12: Cincinnati, UCF

Big East: Villanova, Providence

Big Ten: Iowa, Ohio State

ACC: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh

Pac-12: Utah, Oregon

25 At-Large candidates for 20 spots: Kansas State, Butler, Richmond, New Mexico, Xavier, Maryland, UNLV, SMU, Memphis, San Francisco, Appalachian State, Florida State, NC State, Bradley, Minnesota, VCU, Syracuse, LSU, North Texas, Loyola Chicago, Boston College, Indiana, Yale, St. Bonaventure, Cornell.