J.D. PicKell: “Buy the Dip” on Carson Beck’s NFL Future at Miami

From Cam Ward to Carson Beck. Miami Hurricanes fans were perhaps a bit spoiled last year with the NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick on board, and it’s hard to think that Beck will be at that level.

But maybe near that level will do?

Because, after all, it was just a year ago that Beck was considered the Heisman Trophy favorite coming off a year at Georgia in which he threw for 3,941 yards with 24 TDs (adding four more rushing scores) and six INTs. He led the Bulldogs to a 13-1 record.

But then last year he endured an up-and-down year, leading the SEC in a category you don’t want with 12 INTs while throwing for 3,485 yards with 28 TDs (and one rushing TD) before going down in the playoffs with a torn UCL. Because of that injury, Miami fans didn’t get to see him in action this spring, but he’s back throwing now and will be full go in fall camp.

A believer in Beck?

That’s On3’s J.D. PicKell.

“Carson Beck is going to play his way back into being a first round pick,” PicKell said on his latest installment of Hard Count. “When Cam Ward transferred to Miami, think about the things being said about him as it pertained to how he’d fit at Miami, project in 2025. A lot of the discussion was `Hey, we just want to see him do it against better competition.’ … We’re not saying that with Carson Beck. We’re saying `We want to see better decisions.’

“When we were sitting here a year ago (talking about Beck) – projected No. 1 pick, projected Heisman Trophy guy, after this year he’s gone to the league. That all came crashing down when Georgia wasn’t able to run the football, led America in drops, all that.”

PicKell says some of the struggles last year you can put on Beck, but that a lot also came from around him that wasn’t his fault.

PicKell also says he likes the system that Shannon Dawson runs as a QB-friendly one for Beck.

“They are going to let him strut his stuff, push the ball downfield,” PicKell said. “Last year they were top 10 in the country when it came to yards per pass. A lot of that was Cam Ward. Shannon Dawson allows his quarterback to cook as much as they want.”

And if Beck does work himself into a first-round pick? PicKell says that means Miami will have “a second chance” at fixing its defense after that side of the ball cost UM the playoffs a year ago.

“Last year the offense was good enough to win a national championship, and it was squandered by a no-good defense,” PicKell said. “This is a chance now where if your defense is good enough and Carson Beck plays like a first rounder, what are they competing for? Are they competing for the ACC, in the playoffs? A better defense a year ago you say `Yes, absolutely.’ So I’m not asking Carson Beck to be Cam Ward, but if he plays to his potential, is able to make better decisions and able to take advantage of the Shannon Dawson system, they are going to be in a spot to really make some noise here.

“Carson Beck, I’ll buy the dip here, he’ll be in the first round discussion.”

PicKell also says a key will be for Beck to “flush” the negativity from last year and embrace Dawson’s system.

“I love everything about this situation for him,” PicKell said.

PicKell also says the outside noise that Beck isn’t focused on football, etc., isn’t a major concern and that he “loves” that Beck isn’t dealing with girlfriend (ala Cavinder) issues anymore.

“Single Carson Beck was the guy who was All-SEC,” PicKell said. “I love the idea now that he’ll be able to hopefully lock in on some football.”

A big picture takeaway from PicKell?

“He got out of a place where he underperformed,” PicKell said. “There’s a reset there a little bit for him. (In the ACC) he’s not playing Texas and ‘Bama and Tennessee every single week. Instead you have Louisville and Pitt and Stanford. The ACC is still a good conference, but there’s a lot less draft picks from the defensive side year in and year out from the ACC than the SEC. So if you’re Carson Beck you’re in a better position.”