3-2-1: Can Michigan State sustain its success and build on it in second half of season?

East Lansing, Mich. – Let’s face it, anytime a new coach is tasked to take over a program, there always seems to be more questions, than answers. But in her first season at the helm of Michigan State’s women’s basketball program Robyn Fralick appears to be on the verge of providing more answers than there are questions to be asked.

With an uptempo style that utilizes the press as a weapon to create offense, Fralick and her staff have not only created an exciting and enjoyable brand of basketball to watch but one that is producing results, as in victories.

At the halfway point of the 2023-24 season, Fralick’s Spartans are defying the odds, rolling up a 12-3 record, despite losing four players to season-ending injuries.

Three of those players – senior guard Gabby Elliott, junior forward Isaline Alexander and freshman center Mary Meng – were expected to provide quality minutes all season.

Shockingly, those personnel losses have resulted so far in being just a minor speed bump in the team’s success.

While the Spartans have yet to obtain what could be considered a signature win – a victory over a ranked opponent – Michigan State looks like a team that could eventually knock off one of the conference’s Big Three in Iowa, Indiana or Ohio State.

The Spartans, who have fallen to ranked Iowa and Creighton teams, will get another shot at a signature win when they visit the No. 16 Buckeyes at 4 p.m. on Sunday (BTN).

Michigan State’s next home game will be at 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday against Northwestern (B1G+).

Continue below for Three Things We’ve Learned, Two Questions, and One Prediction after Michigan State’s first 15 games.

1. TEAM CHEMISTRY IS HAVING AN IMPACT

There are some people who will tell you that team chemistry can only take a team so far when it comes to wins and losses. But when you look at this year’s version of Michigan State women’s basketball, team chemistry is everything.

The fact that this group is so bonded – with much of that being attributed to the leadership of graduate senior guard/forward Julia Ayrault and graduate senior guard Moira Joiner – this team’s first half success is wrapped up in the fact that there is a true sisterhood in Michigan State’s locker room where no one is ever left behind; and that a bench player’s contribution is just as crucial as someone who’s announced as a starter pregame.

While Ayrault (6-2, Grosse Pointe Woods, Mich.) can be considered as more of a quiet leader with Joiner (5-10, Saginaw, Mich.) being the more vocal of the two, it may sound more like a good cop-bad cop dynamic but that would not be paying this group’s bond on and off the court justice.

They’ve found a way to make all things work and that’s a credit to the culture Fralick and her staff have built in less than a full season together.

Much of that culture has been about putting an emphasis on effort and energy.

“One of my favorite things about the game of basketball is that effort and energy are an advantage,’’ Fralick said. “Not every sport can you say that. In golf, you can’t just try harder. In basketball, you can. And so we talk a lot about effort and energy has to be an advantage for us and it can be.’’

2. DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE FUN FACTOR

Don’t be alarmed if you see junior point guard DeeDee Hagemann skipping over to the bench during a timeout or sophomore guard Theryn Hallock bouncing up and down during breaks in the action.

Win or lose, this group has found and cultivated the recipe for having fun, even in the most pressurized of moments in games.

Now, Joiner did admit that she tossed a chair in the lockeroom after Michigan State’s heartbreaking 76-73 loss at No. 4 Iowa after Caitlin Clark hit a bomb over her outstretched arm from the logo at the buzzer back on Jan. 2.

But the fact that the Spartans were able to bounce back and earn a hard-fought 74-69 victory over Maryland (10-5) on Tuesday speaks volumes about this team’s ability to flush a disappointment and return to form with passion against one of the better teams in the Big Ten.

“They’re having fun. Fun is a big part of loving what you do,’’ Fralick said. “I always think you’ve got to keep the joy of the game, especially as you keep moving up levels and it gets more competitive and there’s more pressure. You’ve got to keep the joy of the game and when you can do that, you tend to get better too.’’

By the way, Michigan State entered its game against the Terrapins with a 2-18 mark overall against Maryland and hadn’t beaten the Terps since 2018.

Even when the Spartans trailed by seven to start the second half, there was nothing but smiles when they returned to the court. Perhaps not coincidentally, Michigan State outscored the Terrapins 52-40 in the second half to earn the win. 

3. KNOW YOUR ROLE, DON’T SLOW YOUR ROLL

The Spartans have played a majority of the team’s 15 games without a true post player after losing both Alexander (6-foot-3) and Meng (6-5) to season-ending injuries.

Despite that and with Ayrault at 6-2, along with graduate senior guard/forward Tory Ozment at 6-1 being the team’s tallest players, Michigan State is out-rebounding its opponents by an average of 37.3 to 33.9 rebounds per game. The Spartans’ turnover margin is second in the conference at +8.20 per game, while the team is first in assist/turnover ratio at 1.79.

Hagemann (5-7, Jr., Detroit) is second in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio, while Hallock (5-10, Soph., Grand Rapids) is 8^th.

Additionally, the Spartans are first in 3-point field goals made, third in 3-point field goal percentage and second in points per game at 89.9.

The Spartans play fast, but they don’t turn it over. They share the ball, shoot a lot of threes, and make them. No wonder they’re having fun. 

Ayrault, a terrific inside-outside talent, is seventh in the conference in rebounding and second in blocks per contest. 

At least four Spartans are averaging 4.5 rebounds per game or more, while five are putting up at least nine points a contest.

All of these numbers indicate that Michigan State is getting contributions from across the board in all categories that translate into victories despite a playing rotation that usually goes just eight deep.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. CAN THIS TEAM STAY HEALTHY?

For a while, things looked bleak on the health landscape for Fralick’s first season in East Lansing.

Since the start of the season, the Spartans have lost significant service time from players who were expected to provide significant minutes to the team’s goals of being among the top half of the Big Ten standings.

The loss of bodies to season-ending injuries has meant that Fralick and her staff have had to tweak some approaches in both practice and in games.

So far, so good but this group cannot take anymore hits in terms of team depth. Staying healthy the rest of the way will be a major concern when it comes to getting into a position to secure a spot in the postseason.

2. WILL THIS TEAM WEAR DOWN?

That is a distinct possibility with the uptempo and high energy style of play which has served this team so well en route to its 12 wins, which has included outcomes in which Michigan State has scored 90 or more points eight times.

Fralick may need to adjust some practice approaches going forward in order to conserve energy down the stretch to make sure fatigue doesn’t become an issue for a team that utilizes a variety of presses and traps to keep their opponents off balance and out of sync.

Entering the second half of the season, the Spartans have four players who are averaging 24-plus minutes a game with Joiner and Hagemann logging upwards of 30 minutes per game.

ONE PREDICTION

While there is still a lot of basketball to be played, I feel this is an NCAA Tournament team.

A lot of things still need to go right for this team to earn the program’s first invite to the field of 68 since 2021, when the Spartans earned a No. 10 seed,  losing to No. 7 seeded Iowa State, 79-72. But all indications point towards this group trending toward a spot in the Big Dance, reviving the program’s postseason history, which has totaled 18 invitations to the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State will head to Ohio State Sunday as the No. 27 team in the AP Top 25 poll with a bracketology projection as a No. 8 seed in the Albany Regional, according to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme. Beat Ohio State on Sunday and Michigan State is likely to break into the Top 25.