Is Michigan State safe from the NCAA Tournament bubble? Selection Sunday anxiety builds

East Lansing, Mich. – When Michigan State played Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals on Friday, it didn’t feel like a must-win situation, but it might have been.

The Spartans wake up this morning in a more precarious NCAA Tournament bubble predicament than most observers anticipated.

At stake is Michigan State’s streak of 25 straight appearances in the NCAA Tournament. That’s the third longest in college basketball history. The Spartans can overtake North Carolina’s streak of 27 and post the second-longest streak in history if the Spartans make The Big Dance this year and the next two years. 

Tom Izzo’s streak of 25 consecutive appearances is the most by any coach in the history of the game. 

Those streaks are on the line today as the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee meets to decide the fate of several bubble teams, one of which is Michigan State. This will likely be the most uneasy Selection Sunday of the past 26 years for Izzo and Michigan State.

With North Carolina State winning the ACC’s automatic bid and Oregon winning the Pac-12’s automatic bid, those two surprise teams stole bids from teams that were previously on the bubble. That means teams that weren’t on the bubble a couple of days ago have been bumped down a couple of pegs into the danger zone – and Michigan State is one of them. Florida Atlantic losing in the American Athletic Conference Tournament, and Dayton losingin the Atlantic 10 opened up automatic bids for teams that weren’t going to get in otherwise. If Dayton and FAU get at-large bids, that will knock out other bubble teams.

Elsewhere, New Mexico was regarded as a bubble team heading into its conference tournament. But New Mexico removed all doubt by winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship and claiming an automatic bid.

Conference tournament championships by New Mexico, Oregon, North Carolina State, coupled with conference tournament losses by FAU and Dayton, created a perfect storm that lands teams such as Michigan State, St. John’s, Oklahoma and others in precarious situations.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Michigan State comfortably in the tournament two days ago. But now he has the Spartans as one of the “last four in.” He has the Spartans a notch below TCU, and a notch ahead of Oklahoma and Colorado. That’s a thin margin of error for Michigan State. 

Lunardi is well-respected for his projections, but there are occasionally Selection Sunday surprises, enough to make Spartans fans sweat when the brackets are announced at 6 p.m. on Sunday. 

Lunardi has Michigan State playing Oklahoma in a “First Four” game in Dayton, for the right to play No. 7 seed Gonzaga in Salt Lake City. The survivor would face No. 2 seed Arizona if the chalk holds.

In his final update prior to the brackets being revealed, CBS’s Jerry Palm had Michigan State making the NCAA Tournament as a First Four participant, playing against the University of Dayton, in Dayton. He has Dayton and Michigan State as No. 10 seeds.

Palm’s last four in are Michigan State, Dayton, Texas A&M and St. John’s.

Early Sunday morning, Lunardi had St. John’s, Virginia, Seton Hall and Indiana State as the “first four out.” 

Lunardi and Palm disagree about their first four out and last four in – again, enough to make Michigan State fans squeamish about a lack of consensus. 

The NET ranking is a key metric to keep an eye on. That’s a ranking the NCAA Selection Committee has valued above all others in recent years. No team ranked outside the Top 30 in the NET has ever failed to get an NCAA Tournament bid. But that could change this year.

Michigan State has a strong No. 24 ranking in the NET. Colorado is No. 25. Indiana State is No. 29, and both major bracketologists are projecting that the Sycamores aren’t going to make the field. 

Dayton appears strong at No. 23 in the NET with a 24-7 record. 

Northwestern had a better Big Ten season than Michigan State but has a NET ranking of No. 54, due in part to a non-conference strength of schedule which ranks No. 330, compared to Michigan State’s No. 44.

St. John’s (No. 32), Seton Hall (No. 67) and Virginia (No. 54), each of whom Lunardi has out, don’t have strong NET rankings.

Palm has St. John’s and Northwestern in. He has Pitt (No. 41 in the NET) and Colorado (No. 25 in the NET) out. 

Colorado out with a No. 25 NET? Again, these conflicting interpretations are enough to cause Spartan palpitations. The comparisons are dizzying. Early Sunday morning, bracketologists had Michigan State at No. 25 in the NET and Colorado at No. 24. Those two have flip-flopped, according to Palm.

Palm has the winner of the projected Michigan State vs Dayton game facing No. 7 seed Florida in Charlotte in the First Round. The winner would play North Carolina, if chalk holds. But at this point, as we’ve seen throughout the conference tournaments and the regular season, chalk isn’t strong.

Tom Izzo (Photo by Junfu Han | USA Today Network).