Three Things to Watch: Michigan State vs. Maryland in Big Ten Baseball Tournament

Michigan State is in the Big Ten baseball tournament for the first time since 2018 after closing out regular season conference play with two wins in three games at home against Indiana, which had won eight straight games prior to falling to Spartans in East Lansing last weekend.

That series win against the Hoosiers earned Michigan State (32-20, 12-12) the final spot in the eight-team Big Ten Tournament field set to begin on Tuesday in Omaha, NE, at the Charles Schwab Field. The Spartans open the Big Ten Tournament on Tuesday evening at 7:00 pm against regular season Big Ten champion and No. 1 seed Maryland (37-19, 17-7) in a game that will be broadcast on BTN.

“We are excited to be here in Omaha, and we had a good practice today, and excited to get things rolling tomorrow,” said Spartan baseball coach Jake Bos. “We have a formidable foe in Maryland, league champions for good reason, a very talented ballclub. Our guys are excited to go compete for each other and Michigan State. We are out here for a purpose.”

Maryland entered the final weekend of regular season Big Ten play in a first-place tie with Indiana. The Terps claimed an outright regular season conference championship for the second straight season by taking two out of three games against Penn State last weekend.

The winner of Michigan State and Maryland will advance to face the winner of Wednesday’s game between No. 4 seed Nebraska and No. 5 seed Rutgers on Thursday evening at 7:00 pm. The loser of Michigan State/Maryland will play the loser of Nebraska/Rutgers at 11:00 am on Thursday.

The Big Ten Tournament begins on Tuesday morning at 11:00 am with No. 3 seed Iowa (39-13, 15-8) taking on No. 6 seed Michigan (26-26, 13-11) followed by No. 2 seed Indiana (40-16, 16-8) and No. 7 seed Illinois (25-25, 12-12).

Continue below for Three Things to Watch For against Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament:

1. Can Michigan State limit Maryland home runs?

Maryland is a team that hits for both average and power. The Terps lead the Big Ten in batting average (.313), doubles (131), home runs (119), and RBI (517).

Led by Matt Shaw (23) and Nick Lorussa (21), who rank first and third respectively among home run leaders in the Big Ten, Maryland has six players with 10 home runs or more in 2023. By contrast, Michigan State has just one player with more than 10 home runs in junior first baseman Brock Vradenburg, who leads the Spartans in several offensive categories.

To post an upset against Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans need to avoid giving up home runs against the Terps. And that has proven difficult at times for Michigan State during Big Ten play. Only three teams in the Big Ten have given up more home runs against conference opponents than the Spartans with 34.

Michigan State has a promising group of young starting pitchers in freshmen Joseph Dzierwa and Nolan Higgins, and junior Nick Powers. Dzierwa and Powers, both lefties, rank among the Top 30 in the Big Ten in earned run average, but none have been tested on a stage like this against an opponent with as much pop as the back-to-back regular season conference champion Terps.

2. Michigan State needs top half of lineup to deliver

Unlike Maryland, Michigan State is reliant on a handful of players to do much of the heavy lifting. For the Spartans to make a run in the Big Ten Tournament, the top of its lineup must deliver.

It helps that the Spartans have a consistent superstar in Brock Vradenburg, who leads the Spartans and ranks among the top players in the Big Ten in several hitting categories including batting average, hits, home runs, doubles, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and RBI.

And when Michigan State briefly had the look of a potential Big Ten contender during April, The Spartans were getting steady production at the plate from catcher Bryan Broecker.  When Vradenburg and Broecker are both on and Mitch Jebb and Trent Farquhar are both getting on base ahead of them, Michigan State can score in a hurry.

When Broecker struggles at the plate, however, Michigan State has a tough time scoring runs. That was certainly the case when the Spartans were swept in back-to-back series on the road against Illinois and Iowa. At Illinois, Broecker managed just one hit in three games. The following weekend he struck out seven times in a three-game series at Iowa.

To compensate, Michigan State shuffled its line-up with right fielder Jack Frank moving into a lead-off role and Jebb dropping into a clean-up hitter role, and Broecker batting fifth or sixth. To his credit, Broecker appears to have gotten on track since Iowa. He went 2-for-3 in a 9-2 win over Central Michigan had another multiple-hit game in the opening game of last weekend’s series against Indiana.

That’s good news for the Spartans because Michigan State has been at its best when it has had credible power in the third and fourth spots in the line-up. Getting production from both Vradenburg and Broecker will be critical for the Spartans to make any type of run in the Big Ten Tournament.

If Broecker is batting sixth or lower on Tuesday evening, the Spartans will need whomever is in the fourth or fifth spots to step up.

Michigan State has upped its home run total from last year to this, while also improving its batting average. In Big Ten play, however, Michigan State lacked the power numbers it had against non-conference opponents. In fact, The Spartans finished dead last with just 15 home runs against conference opponents.

If the Spartans can’t get home runs from the middle of the batting order, they need to get extra base hits.

3. Is Maryland ripe for an upset?

Going into the final weekend of regular-season conference play it appeared unlikely that Michigan State would win the two games needed to secure a spot in the Big Ten baseball Tournament. Now that the Spartans are in, however, nobody should be surprised if they pull off an upset against Maryland or even make a run.

Michigan State has shown itself capable of beating good teams. Taking two out of three games last weekend against Indiana should do a world of good for the confidence for a Spartan team that has over-achieved for much of the season, despite scuffling a bit during the first two weeks of May.

On paper, Maryland is better than Michigan State. The Terps have a wealth of power hitters, and they have adequate starting pitching with a good closer in right-handed senior David Falco. Maryland did not lose a series during Big Ten play in 2023, but they lost a handful of games, and Michigan State needs to catch The Terps on an off day to advance to face the winner of Rutgers/Nebraska.

That’s certainly possible, especially in game on Tuesday coming off a competitive weekend series. Lack of pitching depth has made Maryland susceptible to a potential upset in quick-turnaround scenarios. The Terps have lost four Tuesday games after playing the previous Sunday. Two of those losses came against quality West Virginia and Northeastern ballclubs.  The others came against Georgetown and William and Mary, both teams outside the Top 75 in RPI.

Are the Terps in line for another lackluster Tuesday performance? That’s certainly possible, but Michigan State will likely have to play even better in Omaha against Maryland than it did last weekend against Indiana to advance.