Three Things to Watch: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

No. 20 Michigan State (5-3) opens Big Ten play at home on Sunday against a Northwestern (5-2) team which lost two of its better players to the transfer portal last season in forwards Ryan Young (Duke) and Pete Nance (North Carolina). Despite those defections, Northwestern appears to be a better team than they were a year ago when they finished the 2021-22 season one game under .500 and won just seven games against conference opponents.

Michigan State is coming into this game after a blowout loss on the road at Notre Dame on Wednesday in which the short-handed Spartans played without senior forward Malik Hall and sophomore guard Jaden Akins for the fourth straight game. Injuries and fatigue from a brutal November schedule that included two trips to the West Coast and games against Gonzaga, Kentucky, Villanova, Alabama, and Oregon finally caught up with the Spartans in South Bend.

Northwestern had an equally ugly ACC-Big Ten Challenge performance, losing by nearly 30 points at home against Pittsburgh less than a week after losing in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge to Auburn by a single point.

Continue below for Three Things to Watch for in Michigan State’s Big Ten opener against Northwestern.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR

1. Michigan State guard play has to be good

If the head dies, the body will follow. Sure, its cliché, but it’s also true. At Notre Dame, for the first time this season, Michigan State guards played poorly as a group. Those struggles were reflected in final margin. There are numerous reasons why Michigan State’s backcourt struggled in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, including tired legs.

With Akins questionable for this game, and Hall unable to play, the Spartans cannot win games if starting guards Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard have off nights on either end of the floor. No single Spartan player has contributed more to Michigan State’s success on both ends of the floor than Walker has thus far. He leads Michigan State in scoring (15.1), minutes per game (37), steals (1.3), while ranking second in assists (4.25). With Akins and Hall sidelined, Walker has embraced the role of go-to scorer for the Spartans along senior forward Joey Hauser.

Michigan State needs Walker to play this game at a high level for its best chance to win. The same is true of Hoggard, who must play within himself and rein in some of the recklessness that manifests itself in turnovers and poor shot selection.

With Nance and Young no longer in the program, this Northwestern team sinks or swims with senior guards Boo Buie (6-2, 180) and Chase Audige (6-4, 200). Buie and Audige are Northwestern’s top two scorers averaging 12.9 and 12.4 points per game respectively.

“Boo Buie is a phenomenal player, one of the best players in this league,” Tom Izzo said, “One-on-one, he is maybe the best player in this league. Audige can do a lot of things too. He is playing a little bit more point. He is a little bit more under control.”  

Both players can create shots for themselves and others. Both have shown themselves to be susceptible to turnovers and questionable shot selection. When Buie and Audige are on, however, they are a dangerous duo and a difficult defensive cover.

“They’ve turned their team around this year, and I give Chris (Collins) a lot of credit,” Izzo said. “Audige is playing much more under control. Buie is a gunslinger. He is a Brett Favre kind of guy, and we know that. Their whole team is changed. They still have guys that can take shots and make shots, but they are so much better defensively. They have done an unbelievable job defensively and I don’t think (Collins) is getting enough credit.

This is a game where Michigan State would love to have Akins at 100 percent. It’s difficult to imagine sophomore Pierre Brooks effectively checking Audige. If Hoggard is in foul trouble, Michigan State will a solid defensive performance from freshman Tre Holloman.

2. Hauser needs to stretch the floor  

Senior forward Joey Hauser has been among the most consistent performers for Michigan State thus far. He ranks second in scoring (13.6), first in rebounding (6.6), and first in 3-point field-goal percentage (45.9).

Good defensive teams understand that one of the keys to beating Michigan State is containing Hauser by keeping him off the 3-point line. Hauser can score in a lot of different ways, and he isn’t just a spot-up shooter. Northwestern will do it’s darnedest, however, to limit Hauser’s perimeter scoring chances. It is much easier for opponents to marshal their defensive resources toward containing Hauser without having to worry about checking a versatile scorer like Hall.

Michigan State has three losses on the season, and Hauser did not make a 3-pointer in any of those games. In fact, against Gonzaga, Alabama, and Notre Dame combined, Hauser attempted just six 3-pointers.

Bad things happen to Michigan State when Hauser doesn’t get open looks from three and getting Hauser open looks from three is a concern given the success Northwestern has had defending the 3-point line thus far.

 “One thing nobody is giving them credit for is their defense,” Izzo said. “Their perimeter guys can do a lot, (Ty) Berry, Audige, and Buie. Right now, defensively, they have been damn good.”

Michigan State needs better defensive communication

By now, it must feel like we are beating the Akins and Hall injury like a dead horse, but the absence of both guys creates problems on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Hall and Akins are two of the most reliable players on Izzo’s bench. At 6-foot-7, Hall possesses the defensive versatility that has been critical for Michigan State over the years. Much like a veteran linebacker or safety in football, Hall’s presence creates a calming effect.

“He just does so many things defensively,” Izzo said. “Defensively, we have one guy that is lost a lot and another who was not lost at all, meaning Malik. Guys that aren’t lost help other guys. Guys that are lost create problems for other guys. Jaden is a big loss for a lot of reasons, but Malik is kind of the heart and soul of us both offensively and defensively.”

Hall’s presence on the floor was an assurance presence for his teammates. Center Mady Sissoko benefited substantially from having Hall on the floor to help him along. Without Hall, Michigan State has done an inadequate job of communicating on defense.

“He is a different kind of player, but he is a little bit like Denzel (Valentine) was and a lot like Xavier Tillman, where he just knew where everybody was and he could talk. He has a little bit more value than I gave him credit for. It doesn’t matter because he isn’t going to be with us for a while. It does matter because maybe we’ve got to spend a little bit more time with guys to get them to understand.”

With Hall unavailable to tie everything together defensively, Michigan State need to do a better job communicating on that end of the floor.

“I am trying to get them to communicate more,” Izzo said. “There is nothing like not being sure of yourself. We’ve got one or two guys that aren’t, and then being out there when you don’t hear anybody talking out there. It get’s scary. It’s like going in the basement of your house and there are ghosts and goblins, and all of those things down there when you were a little kid.”