Eleven league wins has been the magic number for Big Ten teams and the NCAA Tournament, breaking down conference race

With an 87-79 overtime win over Wisconsin Sunday, Michigan Wolverines basketball scored its 11th conference win and is tied with three other teams for second place in the Big Ten heading into the regular season’s final week.

Michigan is still ‘on the bubble’ and may well be on the outside looking into the NCAA Tournament picture. It seems odd for a team that could win a share of the Big Ten regular-season crown when the week’s over, but this is the situation Michigan is in, after going 6-5 in non-conference play.

The Quad 4 loss to Central Michigan Dec. 29 continues to haunt the Maize and Blue. It’s amazing how much of a difference a loss to the lowly Chippewas has made this season. Without it, Michigan’s chances at this point would be much higher.

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Bart Torvik’s T-Rank gives Michigan just a 27.7-percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, with a 4.3-percent shot to earn an automatic bid by winning the Big Ten Tournament.

If Michigan doesn’t go dancing, it’ll be the first team to win 11 or more Big Ten games and not make the NCAA Tournament since the league moved to 20 conference contests in 2018-19. In fact, during that time span, every team with a record of 9-11 or better has made the Big Dance.

Since the 2001-02 season, only 10 teams have had winning Big Ten records and failed to make the NCAA Tournament.

The most notable example is 2017-18 Nebraska, which earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament after going 13-5 in the Big Ten but lost to Michigan in the event’s quarterfinals and wound up in the NIT. The Cornhuskers went 21-11 overall before the NIT but played just the 255th-toughest non-conference slate in the country. They’re the only team over the last 21 years to have 11 or more Big Ten wins and miss the tournament.

Michigan likely needs at least one more victory to have a chance on Selection Sunday March 12. Two wins would make it nearly impossible to keep the Wolverines out.

They’re playing in the second-most challenging conference in the country, per Kenpom, behind the Big 12, and have played the 31st-toughest schedule in the nation.

Given the history we laid out, it would break precedent if Michigan were left out, but it’s important to note that the bubble is a moving target. The top 35 non-automatic qualifiers earn at-large bids, and how good those teams are varies on a year-to-year basis. It’s also worth mentioning that some teams do need a conference tournament win to solidify their chances. Indiana did a season ago. It was before the conference expanded to 20 league games, but Michigan had to beat No. 1-seed Indiana via a buzzer beater to get in back in 2016.

Michigan finishes the regular season at Illinois Thursday and at Indiana Sunday. It’ll certainly be interesting to track how things play out.

Michigan’s strong February put it in contention

Michigan flew home from State College Pa., Sunday Jan. 29 with a sour taste in its mouth. The Wolverines had a great opportunity against Penn State, but the defense didn’t show up and the offense couldn’t hit any shots, resulting in an 83-61 blowout loss.

Michigan went back to the drawing board and took care of business in February, after closing out the previous month on a note that had many jumping off the bandwagon.

The Wolverines went 6-2 in February. Per T-Rank’s customizable stats, they were the 15th-best team nationally from Feb. 1 to Feb. 26 — 22nd on offense and 36th on defense. That places them first in the Big Ten during that stretch, amazing considering what came before it.

After winning three-straight games just once earlier in the season, with the victories being Purdue Fort Wayne, Eastern Michigan and Pittsburgh, Michigan won three-consecutive tilts two separate times last month. The Wolverines beat Northwestern, Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Rutgers and Wisconsin, and fell in close games to Indiana and Wisconsin.

The Maize and Blue have a tough schedule to close things out, but here’s a look at the Big Ten standings heading into the final week, with a look at who each team plays to finish things off.

1. Purdue (24-5, 13-5) — at Wisconsin, vs. Illinois

t-2. Maryland (20-9, 11-7) — at Ohio State, at Penn State

t-2. Indiana (20-9, 11-7) — vs. Iowa, vs. Michigan

t-2. Michigan (17-12, 11-7) — at Illinois, at Indiana

t-2. Northwestern (20-9, 11-7) — vs. Penn State, at Rutgers

t-6. Rutgers (18-11, 10-8) — at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern

t-6. Illinois (19-10, 10-8) — vs. Michigan, at Purdue

t-6. Iowa (18-11, 10-8) — at Indiana, vs. Nebraska

9. Michigan State (17-11, 9-8) — at Nebraska, vs. Ohio State (may reschedule postponed game against Minnesota)

t-10. Penn State (17-12, 8-10) — at Northwestern, vs. Maryland

t-10. Wisconsin (16-12, 8-10) — vs. Purdue, at Minnesota

t-10. Nebraska (15-14, 8-10) — vs. Michigan State, at Iowa

13. Ohio State (12-17, 4-14) — vs. Maryland, at Michigan State

14. Minnesota (7-20, 1-16) — vs. Rutgers, vs. Wisconsin (may reschedule postponed game against Michigan State)