By the numbers: What kind of MSU teams pull upsets against Michigan?

Michigan Wolverines football was a 24-point favorite over Michigan State in 2020, before losing at home, 27-24, in front of 615 spectators. The Maize and Blue are favored by a similar number against the Spartans this weekend (24.5), but there are stark differences between the two situations.

In 2020, Michigan was coming off a 49-24 victory at Minnesota, while the Spartans had just handed Rutgers its first Big Ten win since 2017 in a 38-27 game. In reality, given the circumstances of playing a season during the pandemic, the public didn’t really know what either squad was at the time. It turned out, neither team was very good, with Michigan finishing the year 2-4 and MSU concluding even worse at 2-5.

Ever the underdog against Michigan — college football’s all-time winningest program — the Spartans have had the opportunity to pull off upsets against the Maize and Blue, and cashed in numerous times, including over top-10 teams 12 times, even though U-M leads the series 72-38-5.

Former MSU head coach and current interim associate head coach Mark Dantonio posted an impressive 8-5 record against Michigan from 2007-19. He took advantage of the Wolverines being down under head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, with six of his victories coming against those two individuals. He went 2-3 versus current Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Even recently fired MSU head man Mel Tucker, who was let go in September after being accused of sexual harassment, led his Spartans to upset victories over U-M — in the aforementioned 2020 game and a 37-33 win in 2021.

It’s rare, though, when a bad MSU team beats a good or great Michigan group. This season, the Wolverines are the sole favorite to win the national championship at +270 per the DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spartans are 2-4 and seemingly on their way to missing a bowl game for the second straight season and the fourth time in eight years.

In fact, Michigan hasn’t lost to an MSU team that has finished the season with more than two fewer wins than U-M since 1995 — 13 losses against the Spartans ago. That season, Michigan finished 9-4, while MSU wound up 6-5-1. Since 1969, there is only one other instance of that happening, when MSU (4-6) took down the Wolverines (8-3) in Bo Schembechler‘s first year as the head coach in Ann Arbor.

The Spartans deserve credit for taking advantage of opportunities to beat Michigan, like against first-year head coaches Schembechler (1969) and Lloyd Carr (1995). When MSU is having a successful season by its standards, it often beats its biggest rival. But when it’s not, it rarely does.

By the numbers: Michigan vs. Michigan State

1 College football team has won all of its games by 20-plus points: Michigan. Only two teams in the nation are 7-0, U-M and Georgia.

1st In the country with 12 rushing touchdowns for senior running back Blake Corum. His 43 career rushing scores rank third in program history. Senior wide receiver Roman Wilson slots second nationally with 9 touchdown receptions.

3rd Is where MSU ranks nationally in third-down defense, with opponents converting only 24.7 percent of their tries. However, the Spartans have faced the 13th-fewest third-down attempts in the country (77). Opponents have had much more success in first- and second-down situations, with the Spartans allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt (99th in the country) and 4 yards per rush (20th) on those downs.

11 Wins for MSU interim head coach Harlon Barnett against Michigan as either a Spartan player (1987) or staff member (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2021). Harbaugh, meanwhile, has won eight contests over the Spartans in 13 tries (four as a U-M player, four as a coach).

18-Of-29 Passing for MSU redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser, who threw for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a rushing score, in his first career start, a 27-24 loss to Rutgers last week.

19 Straight Big Ten wins for Michigan, which ties its school record set from 1990-92. Its last conference loss came at Michigan State, 37-33 in Oct. 2021. The Maize and Blue have come out victorious in 22 consecutive regular-season tilts.

36th is where MSU ranks among the FBS in total defense (334 yards per game). The Spartans surrender 24.3 points per game, slotting 61st in the nation. U-M, meanwhile, gives up the fewest points per game in the country (6.7).

47 Of the last 53 meetings between the two schools have been won by the team that finished with more rushing yards. From 1969 to 1994, the team with the most rushing yards won 26 consecutive games.

78.2 Completion percentage for Michigan junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy, which ranks second in the country. His 195.9 pass efficiency rating also checks in second.

88.2 Rushing yards per game for MSU running back Nathan Carter, which ranks fourth in the Big Ten and 29th in the country. He’s amassed 100-plus rushing yards in three of his first six games with MSU. He transferred in from UConn, where he faced U-M in 2022, rushing for 21 yards on 6 carries and catching 1 pass for 9 yards before suffering an injury in the 59-0 loss at The Big House.

1953 Was when Michigan and Michigan State began playing for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, a nearly four-foot-tall prize that goes to the game’s winner. The Wolverines lead the series 39-29-2 since then.