Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Colorado State in the NCAA Tournament

No. 11 seed Michigan Wolverines basketball (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten) will take on No. 6 seed Colorado State (25-5, 14-4 Mountain West) in NCAA Tournament first-round action Thursday afternoon in Indianapolis.

Below is everything you need to know before tip-off, including a breakdown of each key player, what to watch for, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Colorado State

Date: Thursday, March 17

Time: 12:15 p.m. ET

Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Ind.)

Channel: CBS

On The Call: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Jim Spanarkel (color) and Jamie Erdahl (sideline)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -1, over/under 137

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 72, Colorado State 71

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-12 ATS): See below

Michigan Projected Starters

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 9.6 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.5 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists per outing and shoots 39.7 percent from the field … Is 2-of-15 from long range … Expected to make his first career start.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 12.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per outing, while shooting 44.1 percent overall and 38.9 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.5 points, four rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from long range.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging nine points and 5.9 rebounds per tilt … Makes 54.9 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 45-of-73 from the free throw line (61.6 percent).

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game … Shooting 56.3 percent from the field and has made 18 of his 57 three-point attempts (31.6 percent).

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 14.9 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.6 points and 2.4 rebounds, and shooting 46 percent from the field and 39.1 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers 3.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 39 percent overall and just 22.9 percent from three-point range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.6 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 10-of-32 from three-point range (31.3 percent).

Injured

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — Out for the game in concussion protocol … The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.7 points, 4.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from long range.

Colorado State Projected Starters

• #4 – Junior guard Isaiah Stevens (6-0, 185) — Averages 14.9 points, 4.8 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from beyond the arc … Elite free throw shooter at 90.1 percent … Runs 49.4 percent of Colorado State’s ball screens and generates 0.939 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler (74th percentile nationally) … 65.5 percent of his attempts are jump shots, but he also gets to the rim quite often, with 108 of his 447 points coming near the tin.

• #3 – Senior guard Kendle Moore (6-0, 155) — Registers 6.4 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per outing … Shoots 44.4 percent overall and 31.5 percent on threes … Mostly a spot-up shooter, with 70.6 percent of his attempts being jumpers … Has a 47.4 effective field goal percentage on jumpers, which grades out in the 60th percentile in the country.

• #1 – Junior guard John Tonje (6-5, 210) — Posts 9.4 points and three rebounds per contest, while connecting on 47.8 percent of his overall shots and 38.1 percent from long range … Runs the third-most ball screens on the team behind Stevens and Roddy, producing one point per possession when looking for his own shot (that number drops to 0.885 when factoring in possessions in which he passes).

• #21 – Junior forward David Roddy (6-6, 255) — Checks in 10th on Kenpom.com’s national player of the year rankings … Ranks fourth in the Mountain West with 19.4 points per game and leads the conference with a 57.4 field goal percentage … Shoots 62.1 percent on two-pointers and a team-high 45.4 percent on threes (28th nationally) while adding 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest … Likes to post up on the left block … Scores 1.159 points per possession on post ups (96th percentile in the country).

• #11 – Junior forward Dischon Thomas (6-8, 235) — Averages 5.4 points and 3.2 rebounds per game while playing less than half of the team’s minutes … Shoots 39.7 percent overall and is 24-of-63 from beyond the arc (38.1 percent) … Best at spotting up, cutting and rolling on ball screens.

Key Bench Contributors

• #10 – Sophomore forward James Moors (6-10, 260) — Puts up 4.1 points and 2.4 rebounds per contest, while shooting 68 percent from the field (51-of-75) … Is 0-of-2 from three-point range on the season … Scored 45 of his 125 points on cuts and 22 on pick-and-roll rolls.

• #13 – Senior wing Chandler Jacobs (6-3, 185) — The D-II Dallas Baptist transfer records 5.6 points and 4.1 boards per outing, while shooting 42.6 percent overall and 28.3 percent from long range … Primarily used as a spot-up man who can put it on the deck.

• #23 – Sophomore guard Isaiah Rivera (6-5, 210) — Registers 3.5 points and 1.6 rebounds per tilt, while connecting on 50.7 percent from the field and 12-of-26 from long range (46.2 percent).

What To Watch For

• Colorado State is 6-3 against NCAA Tournament teams and went 1-4 in games against common opponents to Michigan, losing two of three to San Diego State and being swept in two games to a UNLV team that didn’t make the Big Dance. The Rams rank 34th on Kenpom — 20th on offense and 86th on defense — and played the 84th-toughest schedule in the country.

• Colorado State has an average height of 6-foot-4 and typically don’t have a player over 6-foot-8 on the floor (though 6-10 James Moors plays 12.5 minutes per game). That means the Rams will be undersized against Michigan, which starts a 6-foot-11 forward in Moussa Diabate and 7-foot-1 center in Hunter Dickinson. That could pose some problems for the Rams, but also for Michigan. The Wolverines’ bigs have struggled to guard out on the perimeter this season.

• Much of the time, Colorado State runs a five-out offense, which would make life tough on Diabate and Dickinson. They’ll have to close out on shooters, stay in front of drivers and guard pick-and-roll ball handlers at times. Not only have they not taken many reps doing that throughout the season, they haven’t been very good at it when they have.

There’s a lot to this Colorado State offense, too, with head coach Niko Medved‘s attack being inspired in part by former Michigan head man John Beilein‘s approach. The Rams rank second nationally in efficiency on cuts, producing 1.429 points per play, and score 8.4 points per game via cuts. They also run a lot of off-ball screens, generating 1.061 PPP and 4.5 points per outing from those actions. Michigan has been poor at defending both this season, grading out in the 21st and fifth percentile nationally, respectively, so they’re in for a challenge.

The Rams share the ball and notch assists on 53.6 percent of their made buckets, but a lot of the offense runs through 6-foot-6 forward David Roddy, a big-bodied but skilled forward who plays both the ‘4’ and ‘5.’ Roddy posts up on 25.2 percent of his possessions, but scores more as a pick-and-roll ball handler than he does as a roller and shoots the three at an elite rate.

• Like Michigan, Colorado State has a top-20 offense but struggles on the defensive end, ranking worse than 80th in efficiency while playing man-to-man 93.6 percent of the time and zone on 6.4 percent of possessions. They press 6.6 percent of the time. They allow a lot of three-point attempts, with 44.4 percent of opponents’ shots coming from beyond the arc, and aren’t good at guarding them, yielding a 32.7 percent clip. The Rams are worse on the interior, allowing opponents to shoot 50.5 percent on twos.

We’ll likely see a lot of switching screens and double teaming the post from the Colorado State defense. The Rams are below average against ball screens and actually grade out well against post ups, but they haven’t faced a player like Dickinson.

• Let’s talk about the impact of Michigan being without its point guard, DeVante’ Jones. It’s obviously a huge blow for a team that really had relied on him to do a lot of the playmaking over the last half of the season. He became one of the top ball-screen men in the Big Ten and took control of the Michigan offense. Expect to see a lot of freshman Frankie Collins, who’s not a good three-point shooter and makes questionable decisions at times but can get to the rim. The Rams will sag off of him and make him prove he can hit triples, which will give Dickinson and Co. less room to work with on the interior.

We’d also guess Howard will play Eli Brooks at the point and play Terrance Williams II and Kobe Bufkin more at the wing and guard spots, respectively. It’s never a bad thing when Brooks, one of a handful of players in the country to have played in a national title game, has the ball in his hands, but he’s much better in a support role offensively.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-12 ATS)

As has been the case all year, this Michigan team is extremely difficult to predict. While still a slight favorite, the odds are stacked against them with Jones likely out of the lineup. Colorado State’s offense poses some problems, and while Michigan is equipped to score against the Rams’ lack of size, not having that extra gear without Jones will hurt. Neither result would surprise is, but it feels like this is how the 2022 season is going to end.

Prediction: Colorado State 78, Michigan 73