ESPN's Heather Dinich disagrees with Michigan as potential CFP team: 'There are more questions than answers'

The Michigan Wolverines head into the season with some renewed optimism after a strong finish to the 2024 season. Now, their sights are set on a potential College Football Playoff appearance for the first time in the 12-team era.

ESPN has the Wolverines as the 14th-ranked program among teams that could make the playoffs this year. However, Heather Dinich is tapping the brakes on the Michigan hype. The network’s analytics put the Wolverines into a group of 32 teams that have at least a 10% chance of making the CFP, but the senior writer says there is still a lot to sort out with U-M.

“Michigan should be better than last year’s 8-5 finish, but by how much?” Dinich asks. “There are more questions than answers heading into the season opener against New Mexico, starting at the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for two games as part of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. It’s also still unclear if talented freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will lead the offense from Day 1.”

Michigan’s schedule is a lot more forgiving this year on paper, but it still has some tough road games in the first half of the season, headlined by a trip to Oklahoma. That could set them up for a potential playoff appearance in the eyes of the committee.

“What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Oklahoma,” Dinich wrote. “The Sooners are a borderline top 25 team, but as long as they have a respectable season above .500, the committee will reward Michigan for a road win against an SEC team through Selection Day. This is also one of the few opportunities Michigan has to impress the committee with a road win against a ranked opponent.”

But what if Oklahoma is not as good as it appears on paper? That could hurt Michigan’s resume one way or another, says Dinich.

“What the committee won’t like: Only one win against a ranked opponent,” she said. “If the Sooners don’t crack the top 25, it’s possible that Ohio State will be the only ranked opponent Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines avoid both Penn State and Oregon. It’s also possible Michigan earns a win against a ranked Oklahoma team — but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does appreciate wins against teams above .500, other contenders with multiple wins against CFP top 25 opponents will likely have an edge in the rankings.”

Michigan kicks off its 2025 season on Aug. 30 against New Mexico. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. on NBC from the Big House. The Wolverines’ Week 2 game at Oklahoma will also be a 7:30 p.m. kickoff, this time on ABC.