Big Ten basketball teams are holding serve at home at a higher rate than normal
“It’s hard to win on the road in this league,” many Big Ten basketball coaches have stepped up to the podium and uttered after losing away from their home venue. It’s a tradition as old as coaches saying they want to build a strong “culture” at their introductory press conferences.
That statement is especially true so far this season. Home teams are 51-20 in league play, and only two squads have more than a pair of losses within friendly confines — Nebraska (3) and Minnesota (5).
It’s been a frustrating season for Michigan, for example, which entered the year with high hopes but has disappointed with an 11-10 record. However, even the Wolverines are 4-1 at home with the lone loss coming by five points to top-ranked Purdue.
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| Team | Home Big Ten record |
| Maryland | 6-0 |
| Purdue | 5-1 |
| Rutgers | 5-1 |
| Iowa | 5-1 |
| Michigan | 4-1 |
| Indiana | 4-1 |
| Penn State | 4-2 |
| Michigan State | 4-2 |
| Illinois | 4-2 |
| Northwestern | 3-2 |
| Wisconsin | 3-2 |
| Ohio State | 2-2 |
| Nebraska | 2-3 |
| Minnesota | 0-5 |
The 71.8 winning percentage is way up from the 2021-22 season, when Big Ten teams went 83-57 (59.2 percent) at home during the conference season. It’s also up from 68.1 percent in 2019-20 and 63 percent in 2018-19. We didn’t include data from the 2020-21 campaign, since games were played in front of few fans due to a virus that swept the nation. Home team winning percentages were 62.7 in 2017-18, 60.3 in 2016-17, 61.9 in 2015-16, 65.1 in 2014-15 and 57.4 in 2013-14.
If it holds steady — there’s no telling what will happen from here on out — it’ll be the highest winning percentage for home teams in a Big Ten season since Kenpom.com started tracking the stat in 2001-02.
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Now, is there a chance things could even out in the second half of the conference season, but it’s hard to predict. For example, from Feb. 1, 2022 through the end of the regular season, home teams won 62.5 percent of their league games, slightly more than the 59.2 mark for the season. In 2019-20, the win rate was 64.6 percent starting in February, slightly less than the 68.1 percent mark for the year.
Why it feels easier for Big Ten teams to win at home this year is anyone’s guess. It’s fair to ponder whether it’s because there aren’t as many high-level teams in the league this season — only two teams, Purdue (3) and Rutgers (14) rank top 15 on Kenpom — and thus it’s harder for worse teams to win away from home.
From a Michigan standpoint, it’s certainly not a great stat to look at heading into Thursday night’s matchup with Northwestern. Michigan hasn’t won a true road game since Dec. 8 at Minnesota, which has dropped five games at The Barn. However, Northwestern has already lost three home games this year, to Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Rutgers, and Welsh Ryan Arena is considered the 168th-toughest place to play in America and 13th out of 14 Big Ten teams this season.
On the flip side, Michigan has three-straight home games coming up after playing the Wildcats, with Ohio State, Nebraska and Indiana all coming to town. That’s a good opportunity to make a move and stack some victories.
