Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament

Michigan basketball (17-13, 11-9 Big Ten) will take on Indiana (18-12, 9-11) in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament Thursday in Indianapolis.

The Maize and Blue won the first meeting, 80-62, and has won seven of its last 12 games, while Indiana has faltered down the stretch and lost seven of its last nine.

Michigan head coach Juwan Howard is making his return to the court following his five-game suspension, while Indiana head man Mike Woodson has turned the Hoosiers — who haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2016 — into a bubble team in his first year.

Below is everything you need to know before tip-off, including a breakdown of each key player, some thoughts on what to watch for, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Indiana

Date: Thursday, March 10

Time: 11:30 a.m. ET

Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Ind.)

Channel: Big Ten Network

On The Call: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play), Stephen Bardo (color) and Rick Pizzo (sideline)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -2, over/under 136

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 70, Indiana 68

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-11 ATS): See below

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.4 points, 4.7 assists (fifth in the Big Ten) and 4.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from long range … Has scored or assisted on 319 points out of ball screens, which ranks third in the Big Ten.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 12.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per outing, while shooting 44.7 percent overall and 38.9 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.5 points, four rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from long range.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging 9.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per tilt … Makes 56.1 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 43-of-71 from the free throw line (60.6 percent).

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.4 points (fifth in the Big Ten), 8.5 rebounds (fourth) and 2.3 assists per game … Shooting 56.3 percent from the field and has made 17 of his 54 three-point attempts (31.5 percent) … Missed Sunday’s win over Ohio State with food poisoning.

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 15.1 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.8 points and 2.4 rebounds, and shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 40 percent from long range … Hit three triples in two of the last three games.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers 3.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 39 percent overall and just 22.9 percent from three-point range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 9.7 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.5 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per outing and shoots 38.8 percent from the field … Is 2-of-15 from long range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.6 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 10-of-31 from three-point range (32.3 percent).

Indiana Projected Starters

• #0 – Senior guard Xavier Johnson (6-3, 200) — The Pittsburgh transfer puts up 11.8 points, 4.8 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game, while connecting on 41.2 percent of his overall looks and 37 percent of his shots from deep … Runs 53.6 percent of Indiana’s ball screens, but is just average, producing 0.899 points per play (64th percentile nationally).

• #45 – Fifth-year senior guard Parker Stewart (6-5, 202) — The Pittsburgh and UT Martin transfer posts 6.7 points and 2.1 rebounds per outing, while hitting 38.6 percent of his shots from the field and 40.5 percent of his looks from long range … Is primarily used as a spot-up shooter, with 93.5 percent of his attempts being jump shots … Has a 51.2 effective field goal percentage on jumpers.

• #12 – Senior forward Miller Kopp (6-7, 220) — The Northwestern transfer averages 6.3 points and 2.5 boards per game, while shooting 37.5 percent from the floor and 37 percent from beyond the arc … 87.3 percent of his shots are jumpers, with a 44.1 effective field goal percentage, which is considered average.

• #25 – Fifth-year senior forward Race Thompson (6-8, 235) — Averages 10.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and shoots 56.9 percent from the field … Has made three of his 25 triple tries on the year … His offensive is mostly derived from cuts, post-ups and put-backs.

• #23 – Junior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-9, 245) — The 2021 third-team All-American notches 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game to lead Indiana … Shoots 57.8 percent from the field and has missed all three of his three-point attempts … Shoots 25.6 percent of the Hoosiers’ shots when he’s on the floor … Averaging 1.067 points per play on post-ups (85th percentile nationally) and 1.303 PPP on cuts (72nd) … Rebounds 9.1 percent of the Hoosiers’ missed shots when he’s on the floor and has scored 11.9 percent of his points on put-backs.

Indiana Key Bench Contributors

• #1 – Senior guard Rob Phinisee (6-1, 187) — The team captain posts 5.1 points, 1.8 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 32.2 percent from the field and 29 percent from long range.

• #53 – Freshman guard Tamar Bates (6-5, 193) — Puts up four points and 1.3 assists per outing and shoots 33.1 percent overall and 28.6 percent from three-point range.

What To Watch For

• Indiana has won just two games between Jan. 29 and today, March 9 — the reason why they’re on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten Tournament despite beginning the season looking like one of the most improved teams in the league. The Hoosiers have been poor in close games and have failed to close a few out in the last month. They rank 44th in the NET and on Kenpom, with just three wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams (Notre Dame, Ohio State and Purdue) and are 4-8 away from Assembly Hall. It should be a desperate effort from Indiana.

• The Hoosiers’ profile is almost the exact opposite of Michigan’s — they’re poor on offense and a very good defensive team, ranking 100th and 20th in adjusted efficiency in those categories, respectively. Indiana is 9-1 on the season when scoring 1.1 points per possession or more, but that’s only occurred in a third of its games. The Hoosiers went a six-game stretch from Feb. 5 to Feb. 21 of scoring less than one point per play (national average is 1.035). On the other end of the floor, while Indiana allowed Michigan to score 1.2 points per possession, only two teams have done so against the Hoosiers in the 11 games since.

• Indiana plays through Trayce Jackson-Davis, but it doesn’t have much help around him. Jackson-Davis is efficient with his post ups, and his teammates are good at finding him and each other on cuts. The team shoots 51.6 percent on two-point attempts, which slots 109th in the country. The Hoosiers have good ball movement overall, registering assists on 56.5 percent of their makes and turning it over on just over 15 percent of their possessions, and Xavier Johnson is good at getting into the lane — but the lack of shot-makers is precisely the issue. They have a 44.3 effective field goal percentage on jumpers, which ranks 12th in the Big Ten, and shot just 31.9 percent on three-pointers during league play (13th). Parker Stewart is the most dangerous threat from long range at 40.5 percent, while Johnson and Miller Kopp have a 37-percent clip but don’t shoot as high a volume from deep.

• Indiana’s defense graded out as the most efficient during the Big Ten season, allowing just 1.008 points per possession and opponents to shoot only 46.7 percent on twos and 33.6 percent on threes. The Hoosiers are strong against post ups, allowing just 0.838 points per play, which ranks fifth in the Big Ten, and send hard double teams 18.8 percent of the time. Michigan generated just six points from post ups in the first meeting, but shot the lights out from beyond the arc, going 11-of-17.

The Wolverines also had success with 13 points for the ball-screen roll man, an area in which Indiana is vulnerable (1.289 points per possession allowed, which ranks in the first percentile nationally). They collapsed the defense and either found bigs down low or shooters on the perimeter for good looks. The Hoosiers are bad against ball screens overall, grading out in the 34th percentile. Michigan runs the conference’s fourth-best ball-screen attack, so it’s an aspect of the game to watch closely.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-11 ATS)

Indiana will be flying around and playing for its NCAA Tournament life, while Michigan should have an added boost since Howard will be back on the sidelines and could use a win to cement its spot in the Big Dance. The desperation factor should be about even, maybe slightly favoring Indiana.

The two teams played so long ago and have gone in opposite directions since. Michigan is 8-6 and Indiana is 4-7, with zero wins over teams ranked better than 84th on Kenpom. Michigan should like this matchup, since it has taken care of business in most games against below-average offenses. The Wolverines’ offense is good enough to score against squads that guard at a high level, especially when they hit shots from deep like they did in Bloomington.

This one should be close, before Indiana tightens up down the stretch and Michigan’s offensive talent takes over.

Prediction: Michigan 73, Indiana 65