Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Iowa

Michigan Wolverines basketball (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten) is set to host the Iowa Hawkeyes (21-8, 11-7) Thursday night at Crisler Center. U-M won the first meeting, 84-79 in Iowa city.

It’s an opportunity for a Quad 1 win and senior night for the Maize and Blue, who will honor five players pregame — Adrien Nunez, DeVante’ Jones, Eli Brooks, Jaron Faulds and Brandon Johns Jr. Iowa has won seven of its last eight games and is safely in the tournament, fighting for seeding.

Below is everything you need to know before tip-off, including a breakdown of key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

RELATED

• Breaking down Michigan vs. Iowa rematch with a Hawkeye insider

• Everyone’s finally finding out about Michigan assistant Howard Eisley

Game Information: Michigan vs. Iowa

Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022

Time: 9:07 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: Fox Sports 1

On The Call: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) and Donny Marshall (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -1.5, over/under 154.5

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 79, Iowa 78

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (18-10 ATS): See below

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.1 points, 4.5 assists (fifth in the Big Ten) and 4.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 32.8 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while shooting 44.1 percent overall and 38.8 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 41.1 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from long range … His 64.1 effective field goal percentage out of spot-up situations ranks first in the Big Ten among players with 75 or more attempts … Has scored 21, 21 and 16 points in his last three games, respectively.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging 9.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per tilt … Makes 57.4 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 43-of-70 from the free throw line (61.4 percent) … Scored a career-high 28 points in the first meeting against Iowa.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.3 points (fifth in the Big Ten), 8.4 rebounds (fourth) and 2.2 assists per game … Shooting 55.8 percent from the field and has made 17 of his 53 three-point attempts (32.7 percent).

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 15 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.4 points and 2.5 rebounds, and shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers 3.2 points and 1.2 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 40.3 percent overall and just 21.2 percent from three-point range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 10.1 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.6 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per outing and shoots 38.7 percent from the field … Is 2-of-14 from long range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.6 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 40.5 percent from the field and 10-of-29 from three-point range (34.5 percent).

Iowa Projected Starters

• #11 – Sophomore guard Tony Perkins (6-4, 210) — Posts 6.3 points and two rebounds per tilt, while shooting 43.6 percent overall and 10-of-37 from beyond the arc.

• #3 – Sixth-year senior guard Jordan Bohannon (6-1, 175) — The school record holder in three-pointers made has hit 71 triples on 192 attempts this season (37.5 percent) … Averages 11 points and 1.8 assists per contest, while shooting 37.9 percent overall … Used primarily as a spot-up shooter (1.111 points per play) and off screens (1.034 PPP).

• #22 – Redshirt sophomore wing Patrick McCaffery (6-9, 200) — Registers 10.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists per clash, while connecting on 41.3 percent of his overall looks and 32.1 percent of his three-point attempts … Spot-up shooter but is at his best when driving left … Shoots 54.2 percent from around the basket … Is questionable for the game after missing the Northwestern tilt with a hip injury.

• #15 – Sophomore forward Keegan Murray (6-8, 225) — Leads the Big ten with 23.3 points per game, and adds 8.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per clash … Shoots 56.1 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from beyond the arc … Takes 31.4 percent of Iowa’s shots when he’s on the floor … Is excellent in transition (1.5 PPP), and scores from all three levels — 39.8 percent of his shots are jumpers, 38 percent are from around the rim, 19.6 are derived from post-ups and 2.6 percent are runners … Ranks second on Kenpom’s player of the year standings … Also plays center at times.

• #0 – Senior center Filip Rebraca (6-9, 230) — The North Dakota transfer tallies six points and 5.8 rebounds per outing, while shooting 54.7 percent from two-point range and 1-of-6 from deep … Has a low usage rate, and is an average post-up scorer, registering 0.889 PPP.

Key Bench Contributors

• #2 – Junior guard Joe Toussaint (6-0, 190) — Puts up 4.6 points, 3.6 assists and 1.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.2 percent from the field and 25.9 percent from long range (7 of 27) … Runs 25 percent of the team’s ball screens, generating 0.953 points per possession (76th percentile nationally) … 71.3 percent of his shot attempts are jumpers.

• #24 – Sophomore forward Kris Murray (6-8, 225) — Puts up 9.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per contest, while connecting on 47.6 percent of his shots from the field and 40 percent of his triple tries … Known for his spot-up shooting, but he’s also able to do damage inside, especially on the offensive glass, where he scores 15.4 percent of his points.

• #30 – Fifth-year senior wing Connor McCaffery (6-5, 205) — Puts up 2.7 points, three rebounds and 1.7 assists per game, while shooting 37.5 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from long range… Started last game in place of his injured brother.

Matchup Breakdown

• Michigan was able to hold Keegan Murray in check in the 84-79 win in Iowa City Feb. 17, with the star going 9-of-23 from the field and turning it over three times. He battled cramps and had to come out for a stretch in the second half, which played into the Wolverines’ hands as well. Hunter Dickinson racked up seven assists, Moussa Diabate scored a career-high 28 points, Eli Brooks nailed three triples and the team had 18 points off turnovers to lead Michigan to victory. The Hawkeyes brought double teams in the post, and the Wolverines were able to carve them up to the tune of 31 points on 19 post-up possessions.

• Considering Iowa ranks in the 36th percentile nationally in post-up defense and don’t tout a player in the rotation over 6-foot-9, the Hawkeyes may not have any choice other than to double team Dickinson and Co. this time around. Iowa ranks eighth in the Big Ten in both three-point and two-point defense, and allows opponents to notch assists on 54.3 percent of their buckets. Iowa slots 78th in the country in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency.

• Naturally, Iowa relies on its offense — and it’s prolific, per usual. The Hawkeyes rank sixth nationally in offensive efficiency. While playing at a rapid pace, they turn the ball over fewer than any team in the country and rebound 32.2 percent of their own missed shots, the 55th-best offensive rebounding percentage in the land.

Iowa’s shooting percentages — 35.2 percent from three and 52.5 percent from two — are nothing special, but they have a lot of possessions, score 18.2 transition points per game and take care of the ball. Having a player in Keegan Murray who can isolate, post up, spot up and run in transition is a huge boost.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (18-10 ATS)

Michigan still needs one more win to feel good about its NCAA Tournament hopes, and leaving it to Sunday’s regular-season finale at Ohio State would be risky. The Wolverines are on a quicker turnaround than Iowa, but assuming the legs are there, Michigan should get it done. The size advantage is massive on the interior, Patrick McCaffery is questionable to play and the Maize and Blue are desperate for one more win while Iowa is safely in the tournament.

Prediction: Michigan 81, Iowa 79