Keys to the game: Michigan Wolverines football at Penn State

Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh is looking for a key road win, while Penn State’s James Franklin is seemingly being mentioned for any and every other college football job in the country.

Again — welcome to November in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines and Nittany Lions will face off Saturday in Happy Valley with plenty on the line for the Wolverines. PSU has been relegated to the spoiler role, but they’ve got a lot of talent on defense and an elite receiver in Jahan Dotson who makes the PSU offense dangerous by himself.

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These two proud programs have combined for a whopping two Big Ten titles since Lloyd Carr retired in 2008, both by Penn State (2008, 2016), the latter considered by many a flukish championship. The Nittany Lions, though, have gotten theirs with occasional big road wins, something U-M is still searching for under Harbaugh.

Saturday is an opportunity to keep hope alive. PSU is limited in the running game, has a banged-up quarterback and is vulnerable.

Here’s what Michigan has to do to come out of Saturday’s game in State College with a victory:

Michigan football key: Keep Penn State one-dimensional on offense

Quarterback Sean Clifford has been the guy keeping hope alive in Happy Valley, having done it with his arm the last few weeks. He threw for 361 yards in a close loss at Ohio State, and 363 and three scores last week at Maryland, including 242 to Dotson.

What he didn’t do was run. Clifford is clearly still struggling a bit after taking a big hit and leaving the game at Iowa, a 23-20 setback which the Nittany Lions appeared to have under control before he left. He hasn’t been a running threat (minus-51 yards in the last three games), but he can be — is this the game he proves to be healthy and is used that way?

It doesn’t seem likely, but that’s something the defense needs to be ready for, just in case.

Dotson will command extra attention, and he should get it Saturday. But making PSU one-dimensional also means shutting down the backs, something most teams have done all year. Starter Noah Cain averages only 3.2 yards per carry.

Michigan football key: Stay ahead of the chains

Penn State’s secondary is the best part of its team. The Nittany Lions are allowing 213.6 yards per game through the air (45th nationally), but only 5.8 yards per attempt (ninth). Their 107.58 rating against the pass ranks eighth.

Intermediate routes seem to be where they’re most vulnerable. They’ve given up 70 pass plays of 10 yards or more (35th nationally), but only 22 of 20-plus (16th). Their corners are elite, so perhaps this is a game in which the Wolverines bring out a heavy dose of tight ends on offense.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Cade McNamara has been outstanding keeping the Wolverines out of second- and third-and-longs this year, aided by a very good running game. PSU will likely sell out to stop the run, though, so McNamara is going to have to be sharp if his number is called on early downs.

Michigan football key: Have some red-zone success

We’ll keep beating this drum until it improves.

The Wolverines showed some improvement last week, scoring three touchdowns inside the 20, but it needs to be even better. Field goals aren’t going to win two of the next three games (PSU, Ohio State), no matter how good Jake Moody has been (and he’s been outstanding).

Michigan ranks 90th in touchdown percentage inside the 20, at 55.56 percent. Penn State is seventh defensively, allowing touchdowns only 29.41 percent of the time.

Advantage: PSU.

The Nittany Lions also don’t give up many long touchdowns, so the U-M offense has its work cut out for it. The execution simply hasn’t been there inside the 10, especially, and on short yardage. That could be the difference between a win and a loss in a toss-up game like this Saturday’s.

The Breakdown: Michigan Wolverines football at Penn State

This isn’t Judgment Day 1997 all over again, a top-five matchup that put Michigan over the top on its way to a national championship. It is arguably the biggest game for Harbaugh in a few years, however. Win, and the Wolverines will very likely go into the Ohio State game in control of their destiny for a Big Ten East Division title.

And if they lose?

U-M is essentially eliminated from contention, and the narrative that Harbaugh can’t win on the road against good teams, is overrated, etc., continues for another year.

This isn’t about him, though. It’s about continuing the program’s ascent. The Wolverines have been ‘good’ under Harbaugh, minus last year’s COVID-shortened season, but championships are the standard. This year was about reestablishing the culture, which Harbaugh and Co. have done, but it’s time to take another step.

This team seems ready for the challenge. It’s played well for the better part of three road games. If the breaks go their way and they play a clean game, we can see them escaping Happy Valley with a big win.