Keys to the Game: Michigan football at Illinois

Michigan faces Illinois in Champaign in its biggest game of the year, one that could determine the direction of the season. Win, and all the goals are still on the table. Lose, and you limp into a rivalry game with Michigan State with nothing but pride on the line … and that’s dangerous, even against this subpar MSU team. 

RELATED: Staff predictions — Michigan football at Illinois 

Illini coach Bret Bielema is still stewing over what happened a few years ago when he thought offensive pass interference should have been called on a fourth down completion that would have made it tougher for U-M to pull out a win. Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore, though, was nothing but complimentary of the Illini Monday. 

“The defense is a big, strong front … they play three down or they can play four down,” the Michigan coach said. “The back end, they play cover one, sometimes cover two. Last game, they played a little bit more quarters based on who they were playing. 

“But they’re a good football team. Physical. They run the ball. They’re always going to be disciplined. Bret Bielema has done an outstanding job building the program forever. So up front, they’re really good, and we’ve just got to continue to harp on those little things in practice to help us be successful on Saturday.”

This isn’t a great Illinois team, but you don’t have to be great this year to beat Michigan (see: Washington). The Illini are capable of winning this game at home, and if U-M doesn’t play relatively well, they probably will. 

Here are the keys to a Michigan win Saturday in Champaign:

Michigan Key No. 1: Don’t turn the ball over, for crying out loud

Our Clayton Sayfie brought this up on our podcast today — since 2015, Michigan is 40-1 — 40-1 — when they haven’t turned the ball over in a game. That’s remarkable. They’ve lost only 9 times when they turned it over once, still very good. 

But the likelihood of victory obviously goes down with each fumble or interception, and that’s been a problem for this team this season. It’s the interceptions, particularly, that have done them in, though quarterback Jack Tuttle also lost a fumble two weeks ago at Washington that proved costly. 

Michigan quarterbacks have thrown 8 interceptions this year through six games. Only 11 teams have more, and one of those is the team they beat in the first game of the year (Fresno State, 10). Protect the ball … get a much better chance to win.

Michigan Key No. 2: Tighten up the pass defense

Normally, we’d say “make a team one dimensional on offense,” but that’s been typical this year. It’s stopping that other dimension that’s been the issue. “Other” cornerback Jyaire Hill has been picked on quite a bit, and you can be sure quarterback Luke Altmyer will be told to test No. 20 early and often Saturday. Other teams have, and many with great success. 

Michigan needs the Hill that shined against USC to show up this week. Illinois has receivers who are more than capable, and even Michigan junior Will Johnson needs to be better. 

“Schematically, they do a great job with the run/pass, the play actions, but they’ve got some really good skill on the outside,” Moore said. “[Pat] Bryant and then No. 4 [Zakhari Franklin], both those guys are as good as anybody we’ll see. Those guys are really good.”

Moore talked about making them one-dimensional, too, but if Michigan slows the passing game considerably, the Wolverines will have a good shot to win. That means better safety play, too — no more balls over their heads.

Michigan Key No. 3: Run the ball well on early downs

In our opinion, that means more Kalel Mullings on first and second. He was brought in more on obvious short yardage plays at Washington … we like him getting those 4- and 5-yard runs on first down that open up the playbook a bit. As huskies head coach Jedd Fisch said, they had to go back to playing “normal defense” with a quarterback in the game who could actually throw. 

There’s a role for Donovan Edwards, obviously, and we expect to see more of him and Mullings on the field together Saturday. At the same time, we still want Mullings to be the bell cow and think that could open up the play action game in which Edwards could be utilized as a pass receiving threat, too. 

The breakdown: Michigan football at Illinois

Special teams often make the difference in games like these that are expected to be close, and Moore is well aware. The punting game needs to be better, for certain, but the Wolverines do have a weapon in kicker Dominic Zvada. If it comes down to that, the Wolverines should be in good shape. 

“We need to prevent all the returns and make sure we win the field position battle, then do a great job with our field position,” Moore said. “Tommy [Doman] has got to do a great job punting.”

That’s been an area of weakness when it should be a strength. 

Do that, protect the ball, and don’t give up big plays, and the Wolverines should have a very good chance of winning. The problem … with only a couple exceptions, they haven’t consistently been able to do that this season. Now would be a good time to start.