Keys to the Game: Michigan football at Iowa

Michigan is now 4-0 after a harder-than-expected 34-27 win over Maryland, one that seemed to expose a few chinks in the armor. The Wolverines’ run defense was a bit leaky, and it took the offense some time to warm up against a team not known for its defensive prowess.

RELATED: News and Views: Whose Michigan offense is it, anyway? And will J.J. run?

RELATED: Matt Weiss hints how Michigan offense will approach Iowa

And now the Wolverines head to Iowa City to face a team that’s near the top of every category defensively. Granted, the Hawkeyes haven’t exactly faced the gauntlet of offenses through four games — Iowa State is the best, and they scored 10 points in a win — but as Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said, it’s “where top-five teams go to die.”

His did in 2016. And when we suggested back then that one would be no cakewalk, even though Michigan was a 19-point favorite, some scoffed. And … U-M lost.

We don’t expect that Saturday. This Iowa team is so challenged offensively that it brings to mind something the late Bo Schembechler once said about one of Woody Hayes’ early-1970s Ohio State teams:

“They couldn’t move the ball across the street.”

But Michigan is going to have to put some points on the board, too — just enough to win is enough.

Here are keys to a Michigan win over the Hawkeyes:

Key No. 1: Protect the ball … and no punt blocks, etc.

Iowa thrives on mistakes, and the cliché that their best offense is their defense … well, that is extremely apropos this year. The Hawkeyes scored twice on defense in a 27-10 win at Rutgers, and it was no fluke. One was an incredible, over-the-shoulder interception and return, another a huge hit that jarred the ball loose. The fumble returned for touchdown changed the momentum of the game.

Against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes blocked a punt and needed two running plays and 16 yards to take a 7-0 lead. They wouldn’t score again in a 10-7 loss.

Michigan had control of the 2016 game, too, before mistakes started to cost them in a 14-13 loss that shouldn’t have been. Former Michigan basketball coach John Beilein probably put it best in comparing Iowa football to Wisconsin basketball — “you can’t beat yourselves, because they won’t make many mistakes.”

Michigan sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy put the ball on the ground twice and had a near pick against Maryland — any of which could have made last Saturday’s game even tighter. He was solid, but he’ll need to be even better at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are going to mix up defenses and try to confuse him — there are times his best play will be to throw it away and live for another down.

We expect a somewhat conservative game plan. As much as some might be opposed, that’s probably the right way to play it.

It’s not playing “scared.” It’s playing “smart.”

Key No. 2: Make the Iowa offense one-dimensional and keep an eye on the tight ends

There’s literally nothing about this Iowa team that scares you offensively. Quarterback Spencer Petras is a statue, no threat to beat you with his legs. He’s completing 51.1 percent of his passes with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, and he’s rushed for negative-25 yards in his career.

There’s not a running back on this team that frightens you, either — nobody like Akrum Wadley in 2016, for example. Kaleb Johnson averages 6.0 yards per carry, but that’s due to a 7-carry, 103-yard game against Nevada, one of the worst teams in FBS. He carried 15 times for only 58 yards against Rutgers, and he — and the other backs — have really had no room to run this year.

This Hawkeyes offensive line is subpar. At the same time, the Michigan run defense has been just OK through four games. Maryland got plenty of push against the Wolverines’ front, and the Wolverines are 30th nationally in yards per rush allowed and 35th in yards per game on the ground.

We guarantee the Hawkeyes are going to try to go “heavy” and try to shorten the game by having some success on the ground. They’ll have different looks for the Wolverines than they’ve shown all year, and play action to the tight ends (always) off it.

This will be a test for the Michigan front seven, and the linebackers, especially.

Key No. 3: Match the intensity and get off to a good start

Yes, this is cliché. And yes, it’s absolutely critical. The last thing you want in Iowa City is to fall behind, let Iowa try to bleed you to death by shortening the game and allow the crowd to get fired up.

This is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten. Hands down. The fans are on top of you, it’s intimidating, and the Hawkeyes feed off it.

It just so happens that Iowa is one of the most physical teams in the Big Ten. They’re fundamentally sound, always in the right place (especially defensively), and make you earn what you get.

Michigan fans looking to last year’s Big Ten Championship game as evidence that they’re going to see something similar — not likely.

Iowa State fell behind 7-0 early and needed a late, 99-yard drive to pull out a 10-7 win. Michigan is better offensively, but McCarthy and Co. don’t need to be playing from behind. The offensive line needs to bring it from the get-go, and the run game needs to be at least somewhat successful.

If not, we’re looking at a fourth-quarter game.

The Breakdown: Michigan at Iowa

The mistake folks usually make in assessing Iowa is looking at their previous road games, etc., and believing that same team will show up weekly. For whatever reason, the Hawkeyes play above their heads when highly-ranked teams come to Kinnick Stadium.

We thought former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio was the king of the chip-on-your-shoulder, “disrespect” card. Iowa, though, seems to take it personally when these top-five teams come into their house as favorites.

This is a bad offensive football team. Period. It’s also physical, and if it can move the ball on the ground a bit, get some breaks, this team can most certainly pull an upset. That stadium will be rocking, and while it’s not a night game, it will be intimidating. That could be especially true for a first-year quarterback.

Pick your cliché — rock fight, mud bath, whatever. This will probably be an ugly game won in the trenches in which a big play or two — or a mistake or two — can make the difference.

Survive and advance, and move on to a game at Indiana next week.