Keys to the game: Michigan football vs. Bowling Green

Former Michigan quarterback and assistant coach Scot Loeffler returns to Ann Arbor now as Bowling Green’s head coach, hoping to pull the upset of the century against the No. 2 Wolverines. Loeffler has seen some great U-M teams, many of them up close, and he feels this year’s squad is even better than last year’s playoff team.

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“There’s not a position on the field that you see that has weakness. I think they’re way better than they were last year,” Loeffler said. “They’re physical, they run to the ball really well, they’re violent, and super athletic. I think J.J. [McCarthy] is outstanding. The offensive line reminds me of the five that we had in 1999 that all went in the first round.”

But they’re not yet clicking on all cylinders. The defense and passing game are, but the Michigan offense hasn’t yet gotten the run game going, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That’s where we start with this week’s keys to the game:

Michigan Key No. 1: Run the football or die trying

Obviously, the “die trying” is in reference to Harbaugh’s “we’re going to beat Ohio State or die trying” a few years ago at Big Ten Media Day. He was successful, of course, twice in a row. At his Monday presser, Harbaugh didn’t have quite the same conviction in talking about this year’s subpar (for them) running game, but he did acknowledge there were too many inefficient plays and that it needed to be fixed.

This could be the week to do it. Bowling Green ranks 102nd in the country in rushing yardage allowed, giving up 160.5 yards per game — and that’s against Liberty and Eastern Illinois. The Falcons could well employ the TCU/ECU strategy of stacking the box and taking their chances with McCarthy and Co. 

“Well, you’ve got to try to stop something,” Loeffler said in his pre-Michigan presser this week. “Obviously, whenever you can stop the run game, which is a challenge in itself … they get into 12 personnel and 22 personnel, and they go back to some old-school, NFL power-style runs that, to be quite honest with you, not a lot of people run anymore, and they’re hard to fit.”

So, you’ve got to try to get them to be one-dimensional, Loeffler said. But we don’t care about style points here. Once the Wolverines get out to a decent lead (which they should), run it and run it some more. These guys need the reps before the Big Ten season, which starts next week against what appears to be an improved Rutgers team.

Michigan Key No. 2: Tighten up the coverage and make quarterback Connor Bazelak uncomfortable

Michigan ran more fire zone concepts last week in the secondary, but the pass rush forced several bad or quick throws — when there was time to get rid of the ball. Bowling Green wants to be balanced on offense — the Falcons have been close to 50-50 this year — but they’ll be hard pressed to run the ball. That means they’ll likely turn to former Missouri and Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak early to try to get something going through the air. 

Michigan coaches were impressed with the team’s pass concepts on film, and they’re intricate. But you’ve got to have somewhere to go with the ball. Michigan hopes to have sophomore Will Johnson back this week — potentially safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige, too — to limit Bazelak’s success. Bazelak’s not a runner, so expect the Michigan front to be more aggressive in going after him. And if Johnson is on the field, expect more tight man coverage. 

Michigan Key No. 3: Stay healthy

Some have lamented how much Michigan coaches have played the backups in the fourth quarters of games this year. We’re not among them. When the game is out of reach, which it should be again in the third quarter, they should pull the starters and play as many backups as possible. The last thing they need is to lose a key contributor in what’s essentially an exhibition game. In addition, it gives the backups a chance to get valuable game reps … they put in their practice time, too, and deserve their shots. 

The breakdown: Michigan football vs. Bowling Green

Some, not all, know Lloyd Carr chose Loeffler over Harbaugh as Michigan quarterbacks coach in the early 2000s. Rather than start his career at Michigan, then, Harbaugh became the Oakland Raiders’ quarterbacks coach and started his ascent to becoming one of the nation’s top coaches. 

Harbaugh had nothing but kind things to say about Loeffler Monday, though. And even if he harbors hard feelings (he doesn’t), he won’t be on the field Saturday to push buttons. He’ll serve the last of his three-game, school-imposed suspension for alleged recruiting violations.

“I’ve always been friends with Scot,” the Michigan coach said. “We keep in touch and text and talk sometimes. He’s doing a heck of a job there. Their throwing game is really impressive. We’re studying their defense right now but we need to look at their offense, too, because some of their pass concepts are just dynamite.”

Probably not enough to blow up the Michigan secondary, though, even if the Wolverines are shorthanded. We don’t expect Michigan to cover the 40.5-point spread — shorter games have something to do with that — but U-M will win comfortably.