Keys to the game: Michigan football vs. Illinois

Michigan is one win away from setting up a winner-take-all showdown with Ohio State — well, winner-take-most, due to the pesky and pretty much irrelevant Big Ten title game. The Wolverines play Illinois, which has come back down to earth after a surprising start to the season. 

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The Illini lost to a bad, depleted and then-last place in the East Michigan State team to start their trek back to reality. Purdue then also got them in Champaign, and in doing so knocked outstanding running back Chase Brown out of the game late. 

He’s questionable for Saturday’s game with what appears to be a lower leg injury, though he is “trending in the right direction,” according to head coach Bret Bielema. 

His presence could be the difference between a somewhat competitive game and blowout. Bielema, of course, doesn’t present it that way.

“From inside our building, it is the next opportunity,” he said. “I just can’t stress enough that that’s how we kind of look at things. That’s how we talk about it, you know? To get a chance to go play Michigan at Michigan.”

To which many might reply, “be careful what you wish for.”

Here are the keys to a Michigan win over the Illini and an 11-0 start to the season:

Michigan key No. 1: Don’t look ahead

Yeah, we know — the old “one game at a time” cliché. And when we bring it up, we always (as veterans) go back to 1986, when Jim Harbaugh was quarterback and his 9-0 team lost to Minnesota. Because that’s one of the few times a Michigan team actually lost the game before ‘The Game’ in an upset. Then coach Bo Schembechler told his team the day of the game he was worried he didn’t prepare them well enough for the Gophers, having spent much of the week on Ohio State. 

He was right. 

We could also point to Ohio State’s loss to Illinois under Jim Tressel in 2007 — the Buckeyes were No. 1 at the time — and Maryland’s near miss vs. OSU in a 52-51 overtime loss in 2018 as “looking past” an opponent. 

But the Wolverines have taken care of business in games they were supposed to win before OSU under Harbaugh. Indiana gave them a bit of trouble a few times, but those games were still two-score wins. 

We assume Harbaugh learned from that Minnesota game and understands, as he might say, you can’t be 12-0 without a win over the Illini to make you 11-0, first.

Key No. 2 — Contain Chase Brown (if he plays), but stop the run either way

Make no mistake — Brown would be the best back Michigan has faced this year, by far. He’s run for 100-plus in every game this year except the last game against Purdue, and he ran for 98 in that one. 

He’s a shifty back, a Blake Corum type with a little less power. Former MSU back Kenneth Walker comes to mind, and while he got a huge boost from Michigan State hurrying to catch Michigan on personnel changes, he still was — by far — the most successful runner against the U-M defense last year. 

This would be a challenge the likes of which Michigan hasn’t seen this year. Brown has run for 1,442 yards and added 173 yards receiving, too. And the Illini are limited without him, with the backups average at best. 

Quarterback Tommy DeVito is completing 70 percent of his passes, but this is a dink and dunk passing offense. The Illini are 92nd nationally in passing plays over 20 yards and 99th in 30-plus strikes. If they have no running game and no deep threat, they’re toast.

Michigan key No. 3 — Keep the Illini guessing defensively

The Wolverines could probably bludgeon the Illini for four quarters and wear them down, but this Illinois team is stout up front. Still, Michigan State’s Jalen Berger, an average back, ran for 81 and 5.4 per carry against them. Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim averaged 8.5 yards per carry and had 127 yards on only 15 carries. 

They can be had, and this Michigan offensive line has feasted on everyone this year. 

But teams that loaded the box early — Indiana comes to mind — were caught off guard by some early play action that eventually loosened things up. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been outstanding on the rollouts — that’s where he’s had some of his best deeper-ball success — and we could see it being there Saturday. 

This is a well-coached Illinois football team. This could well be the biggest challenge the Michigan offense has faced this year, though that’s not saying a lot. 

The Breakdown: Michigan vs. Illinois

Bret Bielema makes no bones about who he is or what he wants his teams to be, having proven it at Wisconsin. He wants to win the lines of scrimmage, run the ball down your throat (then open your mouth and, when there’s no room, make room and run it down there some more), and wear you down. 

In short, this team is Wisconsin-lite, and he appears to be on his way to building the program in his image. We’ll see if he can get to the level of success he had in Madison, but it’s a good first step. 

That said … he’s not there yet. This Illinois team is banged up beyond just Chase Brown. It doesn’t have the depth to just “plug in the next guy” and be as good, a luxury afforded a program like Michigan. 

There’s a reason Michigan is a three-score favorite. 

Expect another business-like win from the Wolverines as a prelude to next week’s climax in Columbus. And if Brown doesn’t play, it might get ugly.