Keys to the game: Michigan football vs. Oregon – how U-M can hang with the Ducks

It’s fair to say this year’s Michigan team hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, having looked downright bad at times this year. However … the season’s not over yet. Some will say, “Yeah, but now comes the hardest part, with three top-10 teams in the last four games.” To that we’d respond, “And with that comes great opportunity.”

RELATED: Staff predictions: Michigan football vs. Oregon 

Head coach Sherrone Moore isn’t a look-ahead kind of guy, but he understands the challenge ahead. It starts Saturday with Oregon, the nation’s No. 1 team and a squad that’s improving each week. 

“Start with the quarterback, a guy that’s played multiple games, multiple places,” the Michigan coach said of Dillon Gabriel. “He’s elite in every way — reading coverages, making plays, making throws down the field, controlling the offense with his feet. So, you’ve got to do things to confuse him and make him uncomfortable. 

“The O-line is really, really good, one of the best in the country, and personnel-wise, from left to right, they’re all really good. The skill guys are fast. Twitchy. [Wide receiver] Evan Stewart — really, really good. He stands out, and so do the other guys. And then the running back [Jordan James], he’s a violent runner. He’s a smaller guy, but he’s a violent runner … runs physical on the defense.”

In short, this is one of the top teams in the country — maybe even better than the Texas team that handled Michigan in the Big House. Here are the keys to a potential Michigan upset win Saturday: 

Michigan Key No. 1: Shorten the game

Oregon is the last team you want to get into a shootout with, capable of scoring early and often. Gabriel can move, he’s got a lot of weapons, and they can put points up in a hurry. 

So … how can Michigan counter? By keeping that offense off the field. It can’t be one-dimensional, but the Wolverines are going to have to run the ball better than they did against Michigan State. They’ll have to protect like they did against the Spartans, too, because the Oregon defense is much better at rushing the passer, as well. They can force turnovers if Michigan QB Davis Warren gets uncomfortable.

“They just play really good team defense,” Moore said. “They’ve got good players, but they play great team defense. Coach [Dan] Lanning has done a great job with the scheme, and their D.C. has done a great job. So, it’s going to be a challenge. We’ve got to go prepare and prepare to go win.”

Key No. 2: Improve the tackling 

The Wolverines missed an astounding 18 tackles against Michigan State, leading to several yards of offense the Spartans shouldn’t have had. That hasn’t been an issue in the recent past, and it’s something that absolutely needs to be cleaned up going forward. MSU isn’t very good, fortunately — three of the next four teams will absolutely handle U-M with that type of effort. 

The good news — these are fundamentals that can be cleaned up. Guys have been in the right place to make plays … they just have to finish. 

The bad news — we’re in Game 9 now. There’s no reason this should still be an issue at this point, and we’re more hopeful than confident that it can be fixed. 

Michigan Key No. 3: Hold the Ducks to field goals instead of touchdowns

That means red zone defense like what we saw against Michigan State last week. There was a lot of bending but not much breaking, allowing the Wolverines to hang around even when the Spartans dominated time of possession in the first half.

Former Michigan D.C.s Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter teams gave up yardage to the elite offenses on the schedule (mainly Ohio State), but this isn’t fantasy football. You don’t get points for every 50 or 100 yards gained. Former Michigan receiver Jason Avant once famously said after a 14-9 loss at OSU in 2002, “Field goals don’t win games.”

They don’t win games against evenly-matched teams, anyway. You’ve got to find a way to put the ball in the end zone. 

Now, with Michigan’s offense as limited as it’s been, Oregon might be able to get away with winning a field goal battle. But for Michigan to have a shot here, it almost seems like a must. 

The breakdown: Michigan football vs. Oregon

Oregon appears to be the real deal, unlike a USC team Michigan beat that’s been exposed as the fraud we thought they were. They have talent everywhere, they’re well-coached, and they can put up points in droves. 

We’d have given the Wolverines no shot had they lost to Michigan State last week. This team is a bit fragile that way, evidenced by the way it plays on the road. Now, though, with the No. 1 team coming to town and few giving them a chance, we expect they’ll be juiced up the way they were before the USC game. 

We’re not saying Michigan is going to win here. In fact, all of us predicted them to lose. But if they get a few breaks and each man plays to his ability, there’s a chance. With this team, anyway, that’s all you can really ask.