Keys to the Game: Michigan football vs. Penn State

Michigan improved to 6-0 with a win at Indiana, dominating in the second half to pull away for a 31-10 victory. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy continues to make strides and emerge as one of the Big Ten’s better quarterbacks, while the defense is finding another gear.  

They’re going to need it against a Penn State team that’s a lot like Michigan in many ways. The running game has found something with freshman Nick Singleton, and the offensive line is getting better. The back end of the defense is outstanding, and the PSU defensive line is tough.

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“They’re always prepared; they’re always ready,” Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said. “They always win a lot of games. They’re always, always good on all sides of the ball, always well-coached … in great shape and a tough physical, sound football team, exceptional in many areas.”

But … still kind of unproven, like Michigan. The Nittany Lions have played one team that currently has a winning record (Purdue), and probably should have lost that game (granted, in the opener on the road).

Here are the keys to a Michigan victory over Penn State Saturday:

Michigan Key No. 1: Slow the run game and keep Sean Clifford from escaping the pocket

Like most games, if you keep the opponent’s run game in check and don’t let the quarterback beat you with his feet, you’re going to have a much better chance to win.

Singleton has been impressive. He’s had his best rushing success in two games — 100-plus yards against Auburn and Ohio — and Auburn’s run defense ranks No. 92 nationally, Ohio No. 99. On the flip side, Michigan is 7th nationally, allowing only 81.7 yards rushing per game, but hasn’t really been tested yet by a team that wants to run the ball.

Something’s got to give Saturday.

Clifford, meanwhile, often has his higher rushing attempt totals against the Wolverines, often because he’s scrambling for his life. Last year, he had 61 gross yards but finished with only 16 net because he was sacked 7 times. He can escape, and he’ll hurt you if you don’t hold your rush lanes while trying to get to him.

Control these two aspects of the game, and Michigan will have a great chance to win.

Key No. 2: Break tendency in the run game and keep the Penn State defense off balance

Indiana’s linebackers were running downhill at the snap anticipating the Michigan run based on their keys, and they were often right. On junior Blake Corum‘s big run early, in fact — a 50-yarder — they were in position, but over-pursued, so confident in their reads.

But the Wolverines came out with different looks and took advantage on the first drive. They ran play action on the first play, and mixed in plenty of passes — 36 total — to “take what the defense gave,” as the coaches like to say. They didn’t abandon the run, and had just enough success to keep IU off balance.

By the fourth quarter, the Michigan linemen were dominating the line of scrimmage, having worn the Hoosiers’ front 7 down.

Penn State has a lot of confidence it its secondary, as it should. There are some future pros back there, led by corner Joey Porter — they’re going to rely on them to take care of business. They probably believe they can focus more on keeping Corum and Co. in check. But Harbaugh has a way of mixing it up and breaking tendency in games like these — usually subtle, but effective.

The last time we thought the Wolverines’ line would be challenged up front, it flat out pushed the Iowa front 7 around. If that happens Saturday, Michigan will be in great shape.

Key No. 3: Win the turnover and special teams battles

Close games often come down to turnovers, and while the Wolverines have been decent in this area — 7 gained to 3 lost, good for plus-4 and No. 26 nationally — PSU is plus-6.

In addition, Michigan has been fortunate. There should be at least a couple more interceptions, and there have been three fumbles by McCarthy alone that have been covered by his teammates.

The Wolverines probably still would have won those games had they gone the other way. This week, they could be the difference between victory and defeat.

PSU’s backs, meanwhile, have put the ball on the ground at times this year (granted, mostly in the rain vs. Northwestern) — we’d still like to see the Michigan defense force more fumbles.

PSU punter Barney Armor has a big leg and a knack for dropping kicks inside the 10. Michigan grad student Brad Robbins is one of the best in the Big Ten. These guys could definitely play a factor Saturday in deciding the game.

The Breakdown: Michigan vs. Penn State

Minus the 2020 season in which several Wolverines sat out, practice was limited, and there was no crowd at Michigan Stadium, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled Penn State at home. Harbaugh is 4-3 against PSU’s James Franklin, but he put up 40-plus in two home wins.

We’re not expecting that this time around. The Nittany Lions are tough up front defensively, and the defense is always solid-plus. Clifford is mistake-prone and inconsistent, but he’s also capable of making plays. We saw it in the opener against Purdue, when he had his highs and lows but led a comeback for a huge Big Ten win.

Games like these usually come down to turnovers. Michigan is the better football team, especially offensively, and should put up some points — maybe not in the 40s, but enough to win. Protect the ball and play a solid game, and the Wolverines should come out with the victory.