Keys to the Game: Michigan football vs. Purdue
With the Buckeyes vanquished — again — Michigan is on to the Big Ten championship game for the second time in two years. The Wolverines will take on Purdue, which somehow captured the Big Ten West via the tiebreaker … and to the Boilermakers’ credit, they did it when everyone had left them for dead.
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The Boilermakers rallied following ugly losses to Wisconsin and Iowa, beating Illinois in a significant road upset and then getting by Northwestern and Indiana. They played Penn State tough in the opener — probably should have won — but also had their share of ugly performances.
In short — we’re not quite sure what to expect here.
Michigan, meanwhile, needs to continue to do what it’s done all year, stick to its identity … and probably win again without Blake Corum. Sophomore Donovan Edwards picked up the slack last week, but can he do it again?
Here are the keys to bringing home a second straight Big Ten title:
Michigan key No. 1: Expect the unexpected
Purdue has nothing to lose, and a quarterback who plays like it. As analyst Pat Forde said on the Big Ten Network recently, if the running game isn’t working for the Boilermakers against Michigan — and it probably won’t — they’ll sling it 50 or 60 times to try to move the ball.
Jeff Brohm also (and always) has some creative tricks up his sleeve. We believe he’ll bring out the entire arsenal for the Wolverines, and why not? Again, they’ve got nothing to lose.
The way this team has struggled against some of the better defensive teams it’s played (Wisconsin, Iowa), that could be Purdue’s best shot to move the ball.
Key No. 2: Be responsible with the pressure and coverage
We said this before the Ohio State game — there are ways to make a quarterback uncomfortable without bringing the house on every down. Mixing up coverages and dropping into passing lanes can be every bit as effective as providing pressure from the edges, for example (though a combination of great pass rush and coverage is most ideal).
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Aidan O’Connell is a good quarterback, but he’s not going to beat you with his feet. And the Purdue receivers, while having put up good numbers, aren’t in the same ballpark as Ohio State’s. There will probably be more man coverage, and it’s going to be hard for them to separate from a Michigan secondary playing its best football.
We don’t think Purdue can run the ball, and we don’t expect big plays over the top. O’Connell has been sacked 18 times, and this could be a game in which the Wolverines get home with four or five pass rushers, too.
Key No. 3: Be willing to open it up
Purdue allows 3.8 yards per carry, but the Boilermakers are 35th nationally in rushing yardage allowed per game. They slowed Illinois’ Chase Brown, and without Corum, Michigan will be without all its weapons.
Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy has proven he can be either game manager or big-play guy. His deep balls were on the money Saturday at Ohio State, and they’ll be there again against the nation’s No. 65 pass defense. Purdue is near the bottom nationally in long passing plays allowed — if it’s there, you take it.
The Breakdown: Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan vs. Purdue
On paper, this is a game Michigan should win easily. If we worried this team might be overlooking the Boilermakers (or if it were in West Lafayette), we’d say they have a chance to sneak up and play spoilermaker.
Not this team — not this year.
Michigan should win this game comfortably and secure a high seed for the CFP in a few weeks.
