Keys to the Game: Michigan football vs. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl

It feels like it’s been about a month since Michigan last played a football game …

Oh … right. It has been about a month, which is too long for U-M fans who have been waiting to see this special team in action once (hopefully twice) more. The Wolverines and opponent TCU have both had time to heal up heading into this one, and “only” running Blake Corum is guaranteed to miss this one for the Wolverines. He’s recovering from a knee injury suffered against Illinois, of course, one he tried to play through at Ohio State but couldn’t.

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Still, the Wolverines have plenty of firepower on offense with sophomore Donovan Edwards taking Corum’s place … and the Horned Frogs have plenty of weapons of their own on that side of the ball. That includes quarterback Max Duggan, the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy and a “warrior” who willed several comebacks this year.

TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley knows he’ll have to be at his best to move the ball on this Michigan defense.

“They just play well together. Man … that stuff is hard to do, to get all 11 guys consistently playing together at a high level,” Riley said. “And I think they have done a great job. Credit to their staff. They are very, very well coached. 

“That’s the thing that stands out to me. They have length and size up front, and they have guys that cover, and linebackers that can run and tackle, and they have a lot of really, really good players over there. I think the biggest thing is they jell and play well together.”

They’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game Saturday. Here’s what they and their teammates need to do specifically to emerge with a win:

Michigan key No. 1: Don’t forget about the TCU running game

All eyes will be on quarterback Max Duggan and his receivers, as they should be. At the same time, this TCU offense is different than any Michigan has faced this year, for one big reason — Duggan is a true dual threat, and he has a running back in Kendre Miller as a complement. That’s a 1-2 punch the Wolverines have yet to see this year.

So, the challenge is twofold. One — for the defensive linemen and pass rushers, it’s stay in your lanes. When Duggan gets through, he can move, and he’ll make you pay with his feet. We saw a lot of it in the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. And when they spread you out, it puts a lot of pressure on the front seven (and safeties, etc.) to tackle in space when they hand the ball off.

Like the Ohio State game, this isn’t going to be a contest that’s played in the box. Michigan did a great job in the second half against the Buckeyes, but there’s an added element to this offense that makes it even tougher to defend in a way.

Key No. 2 — Limit the explosive plays

This one is under the “obvious” file. TCU makes its living on moving the ball in chunks. The Horned Frogs are 16th nationally in plays over 10 yards with 219, 6th in plays over 20 (84), 4th in plays over 30 (44) and second in plays over 60 (10). Granted, these came primarily against Big 12 defenses, but it’s clear they have the ability and playmakers to be explosive.

Kansas State did two things in particular in their win— they held TCU in check, allowing only a few of those chunk plays, and they got off the field on third down. The Horned Frogs managed only 2 conversions on 15 attempts, though they were 3-for-4 on 4th down. Third down is not their strength overall, in fact … hasn’t been all year.

Make them drive the field and hold them to field goals — TCU is 80th nationally in red zone conversions — and they’ll have a great chance to win.

Key No. 3: Mix it up on offense

Yeah, this sounds cliché, but hear us out …

All the talk the last few days from the TCU defenders has been about stopping the Michigan run game and preparing for the big offensive line, etc. The Horned Frogs are 65th nationally against the run and 83rd against the pass … granted, a much more respectable 23rd in team pass efficiency defense. But there will be plays available in the passing game, play action and otherwise, and Michigan sophomore J.J. McCarthy has proven he can make teams pay for loading up against the run.

Michigan caught more than one team off guard by going straight to the passing game in the early going this year. Indiana, for one, was running downhill at the snap, and U-M took advantage to march the field on the opening possession.

As McCarthy said, if they play straight up 3-3-5, Michigan will look to bludgeon them. More likely, they’ll be disguising and bringing their safeties into the box at the snap, etc., to eliminate run lanes.

That should create some opportunities in the passing game.

The breakdown: Michigan football vs. TCU

We all know the transitive property doesn’t work in football — “TCU looked like this against Kansas State the team on their schedule that most resembles Michigan, and Michigan is a better version of KSU, so U-M should win …”

No.

It’s about matchups, and there are some we’re interested to see. Duggan presents a unique challenge. Ohio State’s CJ Stroud and Purdue’s Alex O’Connell had success in the passing game against Michigan, and the Wolverines didn’t really have to worry about either of them leaving the pocket that much. That won’t be the case here.

And we do expect Michigan to have success in the run game, but the Horned Frogs did a nice job shutting down Texas’ run game, and they have athletes on that side of the ball.

The Wolverines are a 7.5-point favorite, but this one might be closer than people think. TCU earned its spot at the big boy table like Michigan, and the Horned Frogs will be anxious to prove they belong.