Keys to the Game: Michigan vs. East Carolina

The 2023 Michigan football season is finally upon us, with East Carolina set to travel to Ann Arbor for the opener. If this were last year, we might be at least a bit concerned about the Wolverines’ banged-up secondary going against quarterback Holton Ahlers, a four-time starter and team captain. But … it’s not. 

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Ahlers is gone, and so is most of the Pirates’ offensive production. They’ll likely turn to sophomore quarterback Mason Garcia, and he faces a tall task in his first start with new personnel at receiver and running back and a revamped offensive line whose returnees … well, aren’t very good. Still, coach Mike Houston is excited about the opportunity. 

“I think we found five guys that are working together well right now for the last couple of weeks,” Houston said at his press conference previewing the Michigan game. “We’ve moved some guys around, and I think we found our next two or three guys that we’re going to use in the rotation. It’s going to be a fluid process throughout the year, but I think we know who our group is going into this game now. They’re going to be challenged as much in this game as in any game they’ll have this year.”

That we can almost guarantee. Here are our keys to a Michigan victory in Saturday’s opener.

Michigan Key No. 1: Communication in the secondary

With sophomore corner Will Johnson and junior safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige questionable, at best, Michigan will have several new faces in the secondary Saturday. There’s talent back there, make no mistake, but this is a group that’s going to be playing together for the first time, with guys like sophomore Keon Sabb at safety seeing his first significant playing time. There are bound to be some mistakes. 

The good news — nickel/corner and graduate Mike Sainristil will be out there directing traffic, and he’s about as stabilizing an influence as you could hope to have. He saw it all last year, and while he’s only in his second season at the position, the coaches would insist they wouldn’t want anyone else out there. They think he’s one of their better defensive players, and that’s saying something on this defense. 

Though he’s a new addition, we also like the thought of three-year UMass captain Josh Wallace at one corner, as well. He’s played a lot of football, and he and Sainristil have been joined at the hip this camp.

Michigan Key No. 2: Dominate in the front seven and keep everything in front

Michigan’s front seven vs. ECU’s offensive line should be one of the biggest mismatches in this game. It would be major disappointment if the Pirates were able to run the ball, and we don’t expect it. If they’re one-dimensional, it’s about getting to Garcia and making him uncomfortable, not giving him time to throw to test the U-M secondary. 

At the same time, Garcia can move. U-M can’t be too aggressive and leave lanes open, allowing him to scramble. That’s been a point of emphasis for the Michigan defensive line this year, however, and the coaches are happy with what they’ve seen. 

Getting pressure could cover up any potential mistakes in the secondary that could lead to big plays. Frankly, a busted coverage or two leading to a big hitter (or maybe a turnover on offense) might be the only way ECU scores in this game. 

Michigan Key No. 3: Use the weapons in the passing game

ECU’s strength on defense is its front. There’s some returning talent there, and they have some confidence in defensive ends Chad Stephens and Jeremy Lewis to apply pressure this year. The Pirates were solid against the run last season. 

Against the pass, though — not so much. The bad news for ECU is they lost a lot in their secondary. That might be the good news, too. The Pirates were 130^th out of 131 teams in passing defense last year. This figures to be a weakness for them this year, as well. 

We’re not saying Michigan has to come out firing, and we think the Wolverines could have and will have success on the ground. But play caller Kirk Campbell and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore spent a lot of the offseason designing plays to take advantage of their receiving weapons and mismatches — sophomore tight end Colston Loveland, for one, along with junior running back Donovan Edwards out of the backfield. There will be an opportunity for explosive plays Saturday that could create some distance on the scoreboard early. 

The breakdown: Michigan football vs. ECU

If ever there was a year — or a season — for three “easier” games, this would be it. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will miss this one and games against UNLV and Bowling Green due to suspension imposed by the university for alleged recruiting violations. While his assistants are more than capable, the Wolverines will miss his presence on the sidelines. Michigan will be shorthanded in the secondary, down a few starters — again, if it were last year’s ECU team coming in here, that would make us a bit more nervous. 

But again … it’s not. The Pirates are a well-coached team, having improved (record-wise) in each of Houston’s first four years. They went from 4 wins in 2019 to 8 last year, but it might be tough to continue that trend given everything they have to replace. Still, the Michigan team insists it won’t take anything for granted.

“We’ve got a ton of respect for East Carolina, first and foremost,” Michigan interim head coach and D.C. Jesse Minter said. “They’ve been a giant killer over the years if you look over their history … I’ve seen this team for a long time and what they’re capable of doing, the type of athletes they’re going to bring up here. I have so much respect for Mike Houston, their entire staff. We’d definitely better be at our best to accomplish what we want to accomplish on Saturday.”

In reality, Michigan would likely win with its ‘C’ game. We don’t expect that, though, of a team that’s been humming since early in camp and is ready to get a potentially special season underway.