Keys to the Game: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Michigan improved to 7-0 a couple weeks ago with a total beatdown of Penn State, led by the 1-2 rushing punch of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Both ran for more than 150 yards against the nation’s (then) No. 5 defense, ripping off big touchdown runs on the way to a 418-yard performance behind a dominant line. 

Michigan State isn’t in the same stratosphere as PSU defensively — not even close — but the Spartans always seem to play their best game against the Wolverines. At the same time, Iowa (14th) and PSU (62nd) still rank above the Spartans in national rush defense, even after Michigan dominated them on the ground.

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Michigan State is 79th, allowing 153.3 yards per game and 4.0 per carry. 

Still, U-M head coach Jim Harbaugh was complimentary Monday.

“The defense — it’s very opportunistic,” he said. “They have guys that have a knack for getting the ball out and making big plays. Special teams … more of the same. The returner’s outstanding. 

“So … it’s a big challenge. Our team knows that. We’ve all been preparing to get ready for this game.”

Even when they are, however, they’ve found ways to lose this one recently. It’s almost uncanny. But Michigan State has their attention, and there’s strong will to atone for last year’s controversial loss in East Lansing.

Here are the keys to a Michigan victory over MSU Saturday night:

Michigan Key No. 1: Eliminate the big plays in the passing game

Harbaugh complimented the Michigan State receiving corps as “probably the best we’ve seen this year,” and Jayden Reed has proven to be one of the Big Ten’s best. He’s complemented by Keon Coleman, who can also make big plays. 

The Wolverines need to stop the run first, of course. The Spartans don’t have Kenneth Walker in the backfield, and Jalen Berger, Jarek Broussard, and Elijah Collins shouldn’t beat them. But Reed and Coleman are dangerous on the 50-50 balls, and if they run the “chuck and hope” offense, the Spartans can make some plays. 

It’s not really about the pass rush, either. Many of the long throws are out of quarterback Payton Thorne’s hand too quickly to matter. No, this one will be about the safety help (if the Wolverines stop the run with the front seven, as expected, they’ll have more of it on the back end), and cornerbacks Gemon Green and DJ Turner’s play.

Michigan State hasn’t really sustained drives consistently on a decent defense all year. They shouldn’t Saturday, either, against the best defense they will have faced yet. But the Spartans can hit some big plays, and that can keep them in the game.

Key No. 2: Don’t be stubborn offensively — mix it up and exploit the MSU secondary

No, we’re not saying abandon the run. At all. That’s been the Michigan offense’s bread and butter, and when you’ve got a horse like the junior Corum, you ride him. Sophomore Edwards, too, is starting to emerge as a home run threat at running back. 

But the Spartans’ secondary is abysmal and has been for the last few years. It seems to have gotten worse, in fact, since head coach Mel Tucker started getting more involved with it — his “area of expertise.” Michigan State is 122nd out of 131 teams nationally in pass defense. If the Spartans’ defense loads the box to stop the run — and they probably will, taking a page out of Indiana’s playbook vs. the Wolverines — there will be opportunities for the Michigan receivers. 

This could be another coming out party for sophomore Andrel Anthony, or perhaps a big day for grad student Ronnie Bell. The Wolverines should be able to move the ball at will, loosening things up for the running game.

They have to trust sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy to make the plays the way they did at Indiana — and he’s got to protect the ball and not turn it over. 

Key No. 3: Focus on the moment, not the opponent

For whatever reason, Michigan has played “tighter” in this game than others on the schedule over the years. When things go wrong against the Spartans, they often start to spiral. Rather than focusing on the next play, a sense of “here we go again” seems to creep in. 

In 2017, for example, when the Wolverines were playing with backup quarterback John O’Korn in a second-half monsoon, they still had a chance to pull out a win despite 5 turnovers, a plethora of mistakes, dropped passes … you name it. 

The program appears to be on different footing in terms of mental toughness, though, and it needs to be sharp in that area Saturday night. The Spartans are going to talk and try to provoke — retaliation needs to be at a minimum, focus at a premium. 

Hatred can make you do stupid things on a football field — dumb penalties, lack of concentration, etc. Saturday night needs to be about focusing on the next play, as McCarthy always says, and not worrying about the situation, the circumstances, or how badly you want to beat your rival.

Play smart and disciplined, and U-M likely wins going away.

The Breakdown: Michigan vs. Michigan State

If the colors on the other sideline were anything but green and white, few Michigan fans would be giving this one a second thought heading into the game. The Wolverines are more talented at just about every position, are better coached (making Mel Tucker’s 2-0 record against Michigan even more bizarre), and just have a much better team. 

But there’s something to be said for a program that hates you so much that they can win this one and nothing else really matters. That, combined with some dumb luck over the last seven years, has allowed the Spartans to pull out games they simply shouldn’t have. 

And that’s why there’s some angst heading into this one. MSU seems to elevate its play, while Michigan has treated it as the next game on the schedule. Less talented players like quarterback Rocky Lombardi (2020) bring their best and do things nobody thought possible, and by the time the shock wears off, you’re in a dogfight. 

This Michigan team, however, seems different. Last year’s game could just as easily have been a U-M blowout as the loss it was, and they understand that. This team handles adversity well, too, so if something goes wrong early, don’t expect it to tighten up. 

More than anything, however, Michigan is one of the nation’s top teams, and the Wolverines are extremely motivated for this one. There’s no reason they shouldn’t take care of business Saturday night and win comfortably.