What the Big Ten Tournament field would look like if it started today
Michigan basketball still has four regular-season games remaining to sort out its Big Ten standing. The only thing known is that they are more than likely out of the conference title race, sitting 3.5 games back with four to play.
However, there is more still to play for than just pride and putting a resume together. Despite all their struggles, Michigan is two games back of Ohio State for the No. 4 spot in the conference. This gives them a path to a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
The four teams Michigan plays down the stretch – Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State – are all ahead of them in the standings. The chance for some real movement exists if they can get on a roll over the next 10 days.
We are still a little under two weeks away from the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis with a lot of fluidity in the standings. Four teams (Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State) are within 1.5 games of a regular-season conference title. Seeding is far from set.
Despite that, checking in on what the path might look like in the conference tournament is worth a look. Here is what the projected bracket would look like if the tournament kicked off today.
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First Round (Wednesday, March 9)
No 14 Nebraska vs. No. 11 Northwestern
No. 13 Minnesota vs. No. 12 Maryland
Second Round (Thursday, March 10)
No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 8 Michigan
Maryland/Minnesota vs. No. 5 Rutgers
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Michigan State
Northwestern/Nebraska vs. No. 6 Iowa
Quarterfinals (Friday, March 11)
Michigan/Indiana vs. No. 1 Purdue
Maryland/Minnesota/Rutgers vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Penn State/Michigan State vs. No. 2 Wisconsin
Northwestern/Nebraska/Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois
Thoughts on Michigan’s draw
Assuming that Michigan goes 2-2 down the stretch, which is what KenPom projects, that leaves their final record at 17-13 (11-9 B1G). That probably means they need to add another win in the Big Ten Tournament to feel secure in its NCAA resume. With that in mind, an 8/9 game against a fading Indiana team is probably a good draw for them. One of the Wolverines’ most complete efforts of the season came in an 80-62 win in Bloomington on Jan. 23. Their first conference tournament game would also come with Juwan Howard back on the bench, which could be a boost for them.
This particular draw has the winner of Michigan/Indiana playing the No. 1 seeded Purdue Boilermakers. Michigan has a win on its resume already against Purdue and a rubber match would determine who takes the season series. The Wolverines fell 82-76 at Mackey Arena on Feb. 5.
Anything less than a 2-2 record down the stretch adds more burden to the Big Ten Tournament. The current objective is to win one game and see what happens from there. Michigan has proven it can beat or get beaten by any team in the conference, so no matchup is a gimme if shots are not falling. We will have to wait and see how things progress over the next week or so.
The Big Ten Tournament tips off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on March 9 and runs through March 13.
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