Bracketology: Examining Michigan's NCAA Tournament candidacy

Michigan Wolverines basketball continues to stay afloat. Last week, the Maize and Blue survived and won ugly at Penn State, 58-57, before thrashing No. 3 Purdue at Crisler, 82-58. Playing their fourth game in eight days, the Wolverines lost to Ohio State, 68-57, Saturday night.

So, while Michigan surely wanted to beat the Buckeyes and cap off an incredible week with a victory, it still accomplished what it needed to, with two victories, including a signature one over the Boilermakers. That gave the Wolverines their second Quad 1 win of the season, and the Penn State triumph counted as Quad 2.

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The Maize and Blue are 2-6 in Quad 1 games, 3-3 in Quad 2 tilts, 4-1 in Quad 3 contests and hold a 4-0 record in Quad 4 outings.

A game’s quadrant is determined by the opponent’s NET ranking and the location of the contest.

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-35

Michigan is now 13-10 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play, and continues to stay right on the bubble. In one respect, it’s impressive that the Wolverines have won six of their last nine and made major improvements. At the same time, some bad early losses (Minnesota at home, at UCF, etc.) mean they have quite a big hole to dig out of and will need to string together several more wins.

The Maize and Blue rank 36th in the NET, and stand as the second-highest slotted 10-loss team behind No. 35 Virginia Tech. They’re similar in Kenpom’s efficiency ratings, checking in No. 36, while Bart Torvik’s T-Rank is much more bullish on Michigan, placing them No. 23. There’s only one team with more than eight losses that ranks ahead of U-M according to the latter metric — Alabama at No. 20.

Michigan’s offense is top 25 on both sites, as has been the case much of the season, but the defense has really been the trouble point. However, the Wolverines have started to make some strides, especially over the last three games, holding both Penn State and Purdue to under one point per possession and Ohio State to less than 1.1 PPP. Since last week’s win over the Nittany Lions, Michigan actually ranks 39th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per T-Rank.

Those numbers mean nothing if they wind up being a flash in the pan, of course, but they’re reason to stay optimistic that defensive improvement can be and will be sustainable.

After the 2-1 week, Michigan has a 67-percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, according to T-Rank. That number was 35.9 percent last week, showing just how much the two wins, especially the one over the Boilermakers, meant to the team’s résumé.

In his Feb. 15 update, ESPN.com analyst Joe Lunardi pegged Michigan as the second team out of the field. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm forecasted the Wolverines as the third team out in his Feb. 14 update. Meanwhile, in a Feb. 14 projection, Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney had the Wolverines as one of the first four teams with a bye, meaning they wouldn’t have to play in the First Four in Dayton. BracketMatrix.com, an aggregation of many different tournament projections, has the Wolverines in on 52 of 110 brackets as an average of a 10.92 seed.

What’s Ahead For Michigan Basketball, And What’s Enough?

Analysts are at odds when it comes to Michigan and its fate. What’s not debatable, though, is that the Wolverines have plenty of work to do. They don’t have a marquee road victory, but there are two great opportunities to pick at least one up this week, with the team set to play at Iowa Thursday and at Wisconsin Sunday. Both are Quad 1 games, and would be huge for the résumé.

Kenpom and T-Rank have Michigan losing both games this week. The sites agree that the Wolverines will finish 10-10 in Big Ten play, which would mean they’d head to Indianapolis likely needing to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament. That’s what makes this two-game road trip so important. If they can steal one, they’ll appear to be in great shape the rest of the way if they can protect home court.

Michigan has a more winnable stretch that will ensue, with four-straight home tilts — Rutgers Feb. 23, Illinois Feb. 27, Michigan State March 1 and Iowa March 3. If the Maize and Blue go 3-1 there after a split, the result of the final regular-season game at Ohio State March 6 may not mean a ton when it comes to the Wolverines’ fate. We continue to point to 11 Big Ten victories as the magic number, and that hasn’t changed.

All but one of Michigan’s remaining games — home against Rutgers — are opportunities to pick up Quad 1 victories. It’s a much better spot than, say, an ACC team on the bubble. With that conference being so down this season, there aren’t many marquee victories to be had. The Wolverines can grab a few down the stretch.

As of Feb. 15, here’s where Michigan’s remaining games stand in terms of quadrants.

Quad 1: at Iowa (Feb. 17), at Wisconsin (Feb. 20), vs. Illinois (Feb. 27), vs. Iowa (March 3), vs. Michigan State (March 1), at Ohio State (March 6)

Quad 2: None

Quad 3: vs. Rutgers (Feb. 23)

Quad 4: None