Comparing Michigan's résumé to other bubble teams

Michigan basketball is 14-11 overall and 8-7 in the Big Ten, with five games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis. The Wolverines are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, but so are other bubble teams around the country. So, let’s examine the Maize and Blue’s résumé as compared with teams that are in a similar spot.

ESPN.com analyst Joe Lunardi pegged Michigan as one of the last four teams in the tournament in his most recent projection (Saturday, Feb. 19). It’s likely that, after a loss at Wisconsin, the Wolverines have moved down.

For this exercise, we take a peek at the other three teams that were in the last four in, the squads with the last four byes (meaning they wouldn’t have to play in the First Four in Dayton) and the groups that were deemed the first two teams out of the field.

Our biggest takeaway from this process is that Michigan has one of the toughest remaining schedules, but that gives it a tremendous opportunity to pick up big victories. The Wolverines could grab four Quad 1 wins — no other team on this list can say that — and a solid one over another bubble team in Rutgers. That one Wednesday is important to not suffer a bad loss and to knock the Scarlet Knights down a rung. All of these upcoming contests will be much more challenging for Michigan, though, due to the fallout from the brawl after Saturday’s game at Wisconsin.

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Michigan (Last four in)

• Record: 14-11
• NET: 34
• KenPom: 32
• Quad 1: 3-7 (remaining games: vs. Illinois, vs. Michigan State, vs. Iowa, at Ohio State)
• Quad 2: 3-3
• Quad 3: 4-1 (remaining game: vs. Rutgers)
• Quad 4: 4-0
• Road W-L: 4-7
• Kenpom SOS: 3

Other bubble teams

Iowa State (Last four byes)

• Record: 18-9
• NET: 35
• KenPom: 29
• Quad 1: 8-7 (remaining games: at Kansas State, at Baylor)
• Quad 2: 1-2 (remaining games: vs. West Virginia, vs. Oklahoma State)
• Quad 3: 1-0
• Quad 4: 8-0
• Road W-L: 3-5
• Kenpom SOS: 25
• Quick thoughts: Iowa State has more Quad 1 wins than any other team not named Kansas or Baylor. The Cyclones have played an extremely tough schedule and don’t have a terrible loss, either.

Oklahoma (Last four byes)

• Record: 14-13
• NET: 45
• KenPom: 40
• Quad 1: 3-10 (remaining games: at Texas Tech, at Kansas State)
• Quad 2: 4-2 (remaining games: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. West Virginia)
• Quad 3: 1-1
• Quad 4: 6-0
• Road W-L: 2-7
• Kenpom SOS: 7
• Quick thoughts: The Sooners have lost 10 of their last 12 games and are only one game over .500. Trending in the wrong direction, it’s fair to assume Oklahoma may struggle down the stretch, which would open the door for Michigan or another team to move ahead with some big wins.

Rutgers (Last four byes)

• Record: 16-10
• NET: 80
• KenPom: 73
• Quad 1: 6-3 (remaining games: at Michigan, vs. Wisconsin at Indiana,
• Quad 2: 2-4
• Quad 3: 2-2 (remaining game: vs. Penn State)
• Quad 4: 6-1
• Road W-L: 3-8
• Kenpom SOS: 54
• Quick thoughts: Rutgers has gotten hot as of late, with four wins over top-17-ranked opponents in the last two weeks. The Scarlet Knights have some bad losses, though, which are the biggest knock (like Michigan). Wednesday’s showdown with the Wolverines will go a long way for both teams.

San Francisco (Last four byes)

• Record: 20-7
• NET: 29
• KenPom: 24
• Quad 1: 3-4 (remaining game: vs. Gonzaga)
• Quad 2: 5-1
• Quad 3: 4-1 (remaining game: at San Diego)
• Quad 4: 8-1 (remaining game: at Pacific)
• Road W-L: 5-2
• Kenpom SOS: 88
• Quick thoughts: San Francisco has some good wins, but is essentially hoping other bubble teams lose, because they don’t have the opportunity to pick up many more marquee wins. A home date with Gonzaga is still on the schedule, but it’s going to be tough to beat the No. 1 team in the land (though a loss wouldn’t hurt them).

Memphis (Last four in)

• Record: 15-9
• NET: 44
• KenPom: 42
• Quad 1: 3-3 (remaining game: vs. Houston)
• Quad 2: 3-4
• Quad 3: 5-2 (remaining games: vs. Temple, vs. Wichita State,
• Quad 4: 4-0 (remaining game: at South Florida)
• Road W-L: 4-6
• Kenpom SOS: 43
• Quick thoughts: Despite negative buzz surrounding the program, Memphis has won seven of eight games and appears to be trending in the right direction. The Tigers have several quality wins but don’t have many opportunities left. The upcoming tilt with Houston March 6 will be big, as will the AAC Tournament.

North Carolina (Last four in)

• Record: 19-8
• NET: 42
• KenPom: 43
• Quad 1: 1-7 (remaining game: at Duke)
• Quad 2: 4-0 (remaining game: at N.C. State)
• Quad 3: 8-0 (remaining games: vs. Louisville, vs. Syracuse)
• Quad 4: 6-1
• Road W-L: 6-3
• Kenpom SOS: 49
• Quick thoughts: This is a perfect example for why Michigan fans should be grateful they’re in the Big Ten and not this season’s ACC, as difficult as the former may be. North Carolina has only eight losses, but can’t seem to pick up a big win. With only one Quad 1 win and four Quad 2 victories, the Tar Heels’ schedule is holding them back late in the year. Now, the margin for error is slim with so few quality wins left on the slate.

Creighton (Last four in)

• Record: 18-8
• NET: 62
• KenPom: 63
• Quad 1: 3-5 (remaining games: at St. John’s, at Providence, vs. UConn)
• Quad 2: 4-2 (remaining game: vs. Seton Hall)
• Quad 3: 5-1
• Quad 4: 6-0
• Road W-L: 5-4
• Kenpom SOS: 51
• Quick thoughts: Creighton is in a good spot, but its tournament fate will likely come down to the four Quad 1 and 2 games it has remaining. It essentially controls its own destiny, like Michigan, but doesn’t have an easy road to close out the season.

BYU (First team out

• Record: 17-9
• NET: 54
• KenPom: 52
• Quad 1: 3-5
• Quad 2: 4-3
• Quad 3: 3-0
• Quad 4: 7-1 (games remaining: vs. Loyola Marymount, vs. Pepperdine)
• Road W-L: 6-5
• Kenpom SOS: 41
• Quick thoughts: BYU is the clear fourth-best team in the WCC, and it’s going to be tough for the league to grab three at-large bids. Especially considering its remaining schedule is incredibly weak, the Cougars’ best bet is to win the conference tournament, which isn’t going to be easy with Gonzaga and others posing a big threat.

Oregon (Second team out)

• Record: 16-10
• NET: 63
• KenPom: 72
• Quad 1: 2-4 (remaining games: vs. UCLA, vs. USC, at Washington State)
• Quad 2: 4-3 (remaining game: at Washington)
• Quad 3: 3-3
• Quad 4: 7-0
• Road W-L: 5-3
• Kenpom SOS: 56
• Quick thoughts: Oregon has plenty of work to do, but it has a great opportunity with three Quad 1 games before the Pac-12 Tournament. It’s in a similar situation to Michigan and Creighton.