KenPom 101: Michigan’s 2022-23 preseason metrics explained

Michigan men’s basketball has a chance to compete for a Big Ten Championship and more this season and most of the pundits agree. The computers do, too. Ken Pomeroy’s (KenPom) preseason data has the Wolverines ranked as the 26th-best team in the land.

KenPom’s metrics get mentioned a ton in college basketball coverage, but what the heck does it mean?

KenPom measures programs based on efficiency to paint a picture of how a team compares to the rest of the nation. Some people might be overwhelmed by metrics and analytics. We’re here to here to give a baseline understanding of what is being looked at.

Let’s take a deeper dive into what the key terms mean and how Michigan fits in each.

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM)

This is how KenPom determines the overall ranking of teams. This takes the offensive efficiency minus the defensive efficiency to determine how much (X) team would outscore the average Division I program. We will define those two terms below.

Last year, Michigan finished 27th overall. Heading into the 2022-23 season, the Wolverines open as the 26th-ranked team on KenPom.

Adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO)

This is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions, or trips down the floor with the basketball. Last season, Michigan finished 21st in the country in AdjO by averaging 113.9 points per 100 possessions. KenPom ranks the Wolverines 15th heading into this upcoming season at a projected 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD)

This is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. Last season, Michigan was the 74th-ranked team in AdjD in college basketball with 97.2 points surrendered per 100 possessions.

Heading into 2022-23, Michigan ranks 53rd in projected AdjD with 91.9 projected points per 100 possessions.

Adjusted tempo (AdjT)

Let’s spend extra time on this one.

It is not enough to just take offensive and defensive efficiency metrics and spit out the numbers from there. KenPom also accounts for tempo, which is the number of possessions that a team has per 40 minutes (throughout one game).

This is how KenPom says possessions in a game can be estimated using a box score:

Field goals attempted – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.475 x free throws attempted

Possessions are counted for both teams and then averaged out to give us the AdjT metric.

Michigan was 317th out of 353 teams in AdjT in 2018-19 under head coach John Beilein, but that’s not as bad as it might appear on paper. Virginia had the second-most efficient offense in the country when it won the 2019 national title despite being dead last in tempo.

Efficiency is based on making the possessions that you have count.

The Wolverines finished last season at 203rd in the country. KenPom projects a bit of a slower pace this year with Michigan set at No. 219 in this category.

There are many teams in the 180s and lower being among the highest tempo teams in college basketball. That happens because they do not have the athletes or talent on their own and have to rely on playing a fast, perimeter-based game. There are exceptions, as Gonzaga (KenPom’s No. 3) ranked 5th in tempo last season.

Luck rating (Luck)

This isn’t as complicated as some people think it is because luck and intangible things cannot be quantified. All this does is measure a team’s actual record with the projected record that KenPom spits out for them. Michigan was 217th in luck last year at -.019, so they were ever so slightly better than projected.

There is no preseason metric for this seeing as there is no data or numbers to crunch just yet.

Strength of Schedule

This measures the total efficiency of the opponents that a team has faced during the year. Again, no preseason data is seen as it is dependent on games being played.

• AdjEM: As it was defined above, this measures the point differential by which the teams a school has played would defeat the average Division I school by. Michigan’s opponent AdjEM (+12.15) was 4th in college basketball last year.
• OppO: The number of points opponents score per 100 possessions. Michigan’s OppO was ranked No. 1 in college basketball last season at 109.8.
• OppD: The number of points your opponents surrender per 100 possessions. Michigan’s OppD was 18th in college basketball last season at 97.7.

Non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS)

KenPom attempts to paint a picture here of the portion of the schedule that a team’s athletic department can control, which rewards a team that schedules tougher opponents as opposed to cupcakes in non-conference play.

AdjEM: Third time’s a charm. This measures the point differential by which your opponents would defeat the average Division I school. Michigan played a non-conference schedule last year that ranked 27th in the country at +6.27.

This doesn’t take into consideration the caliber of teams. Most non-conference schedules for Power 5 schools are fairly light with some bigger matchups. This is more a measure of how bad the worst teams you play are.

Sometimes advanced stats do not tell the whole story. There are certain bounces of the ball or a shot going in that can change the complexion of an entire game. Anything can happen in a vacuum if shots are falling for one team and are not for the other.

How KenPom measured the last 10 national champions

2012 Kentucky: 2nd in AdjO, 7th in AdjD

2013 Louisville: 7th in AdjO, 1st in AdjD

2014 Connecticut: 39th in AdjO, 10th in AdjD

2015 Duke: 3rd in AdjO, 11th in AdjD

2016 Villanova: 3rd in AdjO, 5th in AdjD

2017 North Carolina: 9th in AdjO, 11th in AdjD

2018 Villanova: 1st in AdjO, 11th in AdjD

2019 Virginia: 2nd in AdjO, 5th in AdjD

2020: No champion (COVID-19)

2021 Baylor: 2nd in AdjO, 22nd in AdjD

2022 Kansas: 6th in AdjO, 17th in AdjD

Final Thoughts

With the exception of 2014 UConn, a top-10 offense is an essential trait in a national title contender. Often, a top-15 defense is also a must, though the last few years have seen that area stretch out a bit. Baylor was an elite defensive team most of its title run, but lost its way during a COVID outbreak in the middle of the season. Still, KenPom has done a terrific job over the years painting a picture of what a contender looks like.

Michigan has a lot ot prove on both ends of the floor, especially defensively. That and its shooting prowess are the two biggest questions heading into the season.