What KenPom says about Michigan basketball's five remaining games

Michigan basketball was up against the ropes heading into the stretch run even before Sunday’s altercation at Wisconsin. Now, the road is even more difficult without Juwan Howard the rest of the regular season and two key players out for the Rutgers game.

Michigan (14-11, 8-7 B1G) still finds itself in the tournament in most projections heading into Wednesday night’s tilt with the Scarlet Knights. Bracket Matrix has the Wolverines as a composite 11-seed and in the field in 103 of 119 brackets. Selection Sunday is still a few weekends away, though. Work has to be done to bolster the resume.

Below is what KenPom says about Michigan’s road moving forward.

Feb. 23 vs. Rutgers – 71% chance of victory

The Scarlet Knights have been one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten, winning games over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois in recent weeks. Their momentum was halted with a loss at Purdue on Sunday. Rutgers will be ready to grab it back on Wednesday night and earn a season sweep of Michigan.

KenPom projects a 70-64 win for the Wolverines, but their metrics obviously do not account for Howard’s absence and one-game suspensions for Moussa Diabate and Terrance Williams. Michigan has a chance at a team win and galvanizing moment for the stretch run, which will be helmed by Phil Martelli. Despite what KenPom says, this is probably a coin flip much like the others on the rest of the schedule.

Feb. 27 vs. Illinois – 50% chance of victory

One of Michigan’s more admirable efforts of the season was in a loss at Illinois on Jan. 14. The Wolverines scrapped and fought despite being down a few notable players due to COVID within the program. Michigan should be at full strength from a player perspective for the rematch and ready for revenge against the Illini. This one has slightly turned in favor of the Wolverines with KenPom now projecting a 71-70 win.

March 1 vs. Michigan State – 63% chance of victory

The Spartans are in a total free fall right now and are playing themselves out of the NCAA Tournament. All of the sudden, this game might be huge in strengthening either team’s resume and getting them off the bubble. MSU was rolling when this game was supposed to be played on Jan. 8. That is no longer the case with losses in five of the last six games. There will be plenty of juice for this game for both teams. KenPom predicts a 73-70 Michigan victory.

March 3 vs. Iowa – 48% chance of victory

The Hawkeyes followed up their 84-79 loss to Michigan on Feb. 17 with two thorough and impressive wins over Ohio State and Michigan State. This is an enormously winnable game for the Wolverines, but they have shown they can beat or lose to anyone at a given moment. This comes at the tail-end of another condensed stretch but registers as one they probably need to take care of business in. The KenPom prediction spits out a 78-77 win in favor of Michigan.

March 6 at Ohio State – 32% chance of victory

Michigan will kick itself for letting a Feb. 12 game against the Buckeyes slip away at home. Every win is valuable this time of year and that was a missed opportunity. A win here could hammer this home as an NCAA Tournament-caliber team in a rivalry situation. However, KenPom sees a 74-69 loss.

Michigan’s projected final record: (17-13, 11-9 B1G)

If the Big Ten Tournament were to start today, Michigan would be the No. 8 seed and take on ninth-seeded Indiana in the first round. The winner would get a date with the Purdue Boilermakers, but both Illinois and Wisconsin are within a half-game of first place. The Wolverines are two games back of the fourth seed and a potential bye and could realistically finish as low as ninth.

Obviously, there is a ton to sort out.

A 3-2 finish would give Michigan 17 wins and have them finish about .500 in conference play, which could be good news for them. They still could use another conference tournament win or two beyond that, but it feels like that would get them in. Anything less would make things sketchy for the Wolverines.

The road continues on Wednesday night with the showdown against Rutgers. Tipoff from Crisler Center is set for 7 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.