Bracketology: Michigan's NCAA Tournament hopes are slipping, making this week even bigger

Michigan Wolverines basketball is fighting for its NCAA Tournament life.

The Maize and Blue went 1-1 last week, escaping against Nebraska at home, 85-79, and losing at Purdue Saturday, 82-76. The victory over the Cornhuskers gave Michigan a Quad 4 win, while the setback against the Boilermakers is seen as a Quad 1 loss.

The Maize and Blue are now 1-5 in Quad 1 games, 2-3 in Quad 2 tilts, 5-1 in Quad 3 contests and hold a 4-0 record in Quad 4 outings.

A game’s quadrant is determined by the opponent’s NET ranking and the location of the contest.

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-35

Michigan is 11-9 overall and 5-5 in Big Ten play. Sitting at eighth in the standings, the Wolverines are on the outside looking in of the conference title. If the regular season ended right now, U-M would play Iowa in the ‘second round’ of the Big Ten Tournament, before the winner would take on the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals. Winning the event, of course, would get them an auto-bid in the NCAA Tournament.

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The Wolverines rank No. 47 in the NET. While Michigan has just one Quad 1 victory — the biggest knock on its resume — there are nine teams ranked ahead of them in the NET that have the same amount. The Maize and Blue have been steadily dropping over the last two weeks, after slotting top 40 just 14 days ago and 47th last week.

The analytics sites continue to view Michigan in a higher light than the NET, but the gap is beginning to close. The Wolverines rank 42nd on Kenpom and Bart Torvik’s T-Rank slots them at No. 34.

Michigan’s offense is top 20 according to both metrics, but the defense — which has struggled all season — has even taken a step back over the last four games in which the Wolverines have gone 2-2. In that stretch, each opponent has scored over 1 point per possession and posted an effective field goal percentage better than 55. Since Jan. 1, Michigan slots 156th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to T-Rank.

The Wolverines aren’t likely to become an elite defensive team out of nowhere, but cutting down those numbers bit by bit could give them that extra win over a quality opponent that it needs to go dancing.

After struggling at Crisler Center against Nebraska and needing a comeback to keep the Cornhuskers winless in Big Ten play, then losing at Purdue, Michigan has a 35.9-percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per T-Rank. Last week, that number was at 49.3 percent. ESPN’s Feb. 4 bracket projection didn’t even list Michigan as one of the first eight out, while it appeared as the fifth team out on The Athletic’s bracket released the same day. Not winning at Purdue likely moved U-M down even further from those spots.

What’s Ahead For Michigan Basketball

Michigan is knocking at the NCAA Tournament’s door, but it won’t be let in without some big wins in the next month. Luckily for the Maize and Blue, there are plenty of opportunities. While they’ve slipped over the last two weeks, since the big win over Indiana Jan. 23, their strength of schedule (12th-toughest on Kenpom) will give them a chance.

Much like last week, Tuesday night is a great chance to get back in the win column. Playing on the road in the Big Ten isn’t easy, but Penn State has already dropped three games at home, has a 9-10 overall record and just four conference wins. The Nittany Lions rank 90th in the NET, so this one qualifies as a Quad 2 game.

Then things get interesting once again. Due to having to postpone the first matchup with Purdue, the Wolverines and Boilermakers will do battle for the second time in six days Thursday night, before Michigan hosts rival Ohio State Saturday evening. Each of those games — as it stands now — are Quad 1 matchups. Beating Penn State and one of Purdue or Ohio State would likely put the Maize and Blue right back in the picture, potentially on the right side of the bubble for the time being.

Even if Michigan doesn’t steal one of the two home games this week (and take care of the Nittany Lions), there are many other Quad 1 wins out there to be had. All but two of Michigan’s 10 remaining regular-season clashes would qualify as Quad 1 victories, with Penn State and Rutgers being the two exceptions.

As of Monday, Feb. 7, here’s where Michigan’s remaining games stand in terms of quadrants.

Quad 1: vs. Purdue Feb. 10), vs. Ohio State (Feb. 12), at Iowa (Feb. 17), at Wisconsin (Feb. 20), vs. Illinois (Feb. 27), vs. Iowa (March 3), vs. Michigan State (March 1), at Ohio State (March 6)

Quad 2: at Penn State (Feb. 8)

Quad 3: vs. Rutgers (Feb. 23)

Quad 4: None

Kenpom and T-Rank both still project that Michigan will finish 16-14 overall and 10-10 in Big Ten play. Will that be enough, is the big question, and we’re not so sure. Getting to at least 11 league victories, including the Big Ten Tournament, still feels like the goal.