Michigan basketball popping up in recent bracketology updates
Michigan (17-12, 11-7 Big Ten) has played itself back into the NCAA Tournament conversation with a 3-game win streak and a 6-2 mark in the month of February. This is a group that is playing its best basketball at the right time. The updated bubble projections and conversations are starting to include head coach Juwan Howard‘s Wolverines.
The biggest name in the bracketology game, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, has Michigan as part of his “First Four Out” as of Feb. 28. Other teams in that category include North Carolina, Clemson and Oklahoma State.”
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John Gasaway, Lunardi’s ESPN counterpart, has Michigan in the “Work To Do” category in the Big Ten, along with Wisconsin and Penn State. The Badgers are just ahead of the Wolverines in Lunardi’s First Four Out despite an overtime loss in Ann Arbor on Sunday.
Gasaway explains the road ahead for the Wolverines:
“Hunter Dickinson’s thrilling buzzer-beater made a statement not only for Michigan’s tournament chances, but also for timeout reduction. With 20 seconds remaining in regulation and the Wolverines down by one at home against Wisconsin, Juwan Howard called UM’s last two timeouts. Then Kobe Bufkin (who posted a career-high 28 points) missed a driving layup, Kamari McGee sank two free throws for the Badgers and the Wolverines had to freelance without a timeout. The result was a game-tying 3 as time expired. So who needs timeouts? Michigan won by eight in overtime to hold on to its spot on a good many ‘Next Four Out’ lists.“
CBS Sports has Michigan in its First Four Out with Penn State, North Carolina and Arizona State. USA Today feels the same way, swapping out Penn State for Utah State in their projections.
Andy Bottoms of Inside The Hall has Michigan in a “First Six Out” category and explains the road ahead for the Wolverines:
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“The Wolverines stayed alive with an overtime win over Wisconsin on Sunday. Even so, Michigan is just 3-10 in Q1, but the Wolverines do have nine wins in the top two quadrants, including seven over at-large teams in this week’s field. Road wins at Rutgers and Northwestern loom large, but so does a Q4 home loss to Central Michigan. This week features a pair of massive road opportunities against Illinois and Indiana.”
Michigan appears in the field in six of the 97 projections on Bracket Matrix, so some are starting to buy in to the hype. But clearly, there is still work to do.
Our take on Michigan’s situation
Getting to 20 wins used to be the magic number, but one more victory could make it a coin flip for Michigan, while 19 might be what it takes to be on the right side of the bubble. TeamRankings.com says that if Michigan can get to 19 wins before Selection Sunday, its chances of an NCAA Tournament berth rise to 93%. T-Rank gives Michigan a 34.6% chance of making the tournament as of Feb. 27. Obviously, there is work to still be done.
Beating both Illinois and Indiana to end the regular season would go down as Quad 1 wins and likely punch Michigan’s ticket to the NCAAs. Splitting means at least one win will be needed in Chicago. Dropping both games will likely put them in an 8/9 matchup that requires a win and then beating the likely No. 1 seed in Purdue.
Thursday night’s game at Illinois tips off at 7 p.m. ET. Sunday’s regular season finale in Bloomington is a 4:30 p.m. tip. The Big Ten Tournament begins on Wednesday, March 8 from United Center in Chicago.
