Michigan basketball: Pre-Illinois NCAA Tournament berth scenarios

Michigan basketball takes on Illinois on Thursday night in a massive game for its NCAA Tournament hopes and Big Ten Tournament seeding implications. The Wolverines come into Thursday’s game with a 17-12 record and 11-7 mark in conference play, which has them alone in second place behind Purdue heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Despite this, Michigan finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. There are no great wins in the non-conference to speak of sans a blowout against Pittsburgh early in the slate. A deflating loss to Central Michigan to close out the non-con slate is also weighing them down like a rock. The only way out of the hole the Wolverines have created is to keep winning.

RELATED: Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Illinois

Michigan enters Thursday’s game against Illinois riding a three-game winning streak. Each of the three wins (MSU, at Rutgers, Wisconsin) featured a team that has had issues closing out games all season forging out how to clamp down in winning time. The next test to pass is doing it twice on the road at Illinois and Indiana to close out the year.

Magic numbers

Most years the magic number for an NCAA Tournament berth is around 20 wins, but Michigan’s is 19 wins this season if projections are to be believed. Hitting that march by Selection Sunday gives Michigan a 93% chance of making the tournament, according to TeamRankings.com. The Wolverines are sitting at 28.6% chance to make March Madness, per T-Rank. So there remains plenty of work.

As of now, the lowest Michigan can be in the Big Ten Tournament is the No. 8 seed if it goes 0-2 down the strech. This would put them in line to play No. 1 Purdue in the quarterfinals. If Rutgers beats Northwestern this weekend, Michigan can climb to No. 7 without winning a game the rest of the way.

If Michigan splits its final two games, the lowest it can sit is No. 6 in the conference standings, which would open them up to playing the No. 11 vs. No. 14 winner in the Big Ten Tourney. The highest they can go with a split is the No. 5 seed if they lose to Illinois but beat Indiana.

There are a number of scenarios still in play, but the brass tax of it is that Michigan needs a pair of victories. If it gets them against Illinois and Indiana, two Quad 1 wins go on the resume and the debate might be over. Even one more might be enough. Despite the hole Michigan created for itself, it can still climb out of it.

Potential win-and-in scenarios

Here is where things likely stand as of Thursday:

• Beat Illinois AND Indiana: IN

• Beat Illinois OR Indiana AND win a Big Ten Tournament game: IN

• Beat Illinois OR Indiana AND lose first Big Ten Tournament game: Potential coin flip

• Lose to both Illinois and Indiana: Need two Big Ten Tournament wins

What they’re saying about Michigan’s NCAA Tournament status

In his most recent update, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Michigan in his “First Four Out” category with Clemson, North Carolina and Oklahoma State. John Gasaway, Lunardi’s ESPN counterpart, has Michigan in the “Work To Do” category in the Big Ten, along with Wisconsin and Penn State. The Badgers are just ahead of the Wolverines in Lunardi’s First Four Out despite an overtime loss in Ann Arbor on Sunday.

Gasaway explains the road ahead for the Wolverines:

“Hunter Dickinson’s thrilling buzzer-beater made a statement not only for Michigan’s tournament chances, but also for timeout reduction. With 20 seconds remaining in regulation and the Wolverines down by one at home against Wisconsin, Juwan Howard called UM’s last two timeouts. Then Kobe Bufkin (who posted a career-high 28 points) missed a driving layup, Kamari McGee sank two free throws for the Badgers and the Wolverines had to freelance without a timeout. The result was a game-tying 3 as time expired. So who needs timeouts? Michigan won by eight in overtime to hold on to its spot on a good many ‘Next Four Out’ lists.“

Andy Bottoms of Inside The Hall has Michigan in a “First Six Out” category and explains the road ahead for the Wolverines:

“The Wolverines stayed alive with an overtime win over Wisconsin on Sunday. Even so, Michigan is just 3-10 in Q1, but the Wolverines do have nine wins in the top two quadrants, including seven over at-large teams in this week’s field. Road wins at Rutgers and Northwestern loom large, but so does a Q4 home loss to Central Michigan. This week features a pair of massive road opportunities against Illinois and Indiana.”