Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Memphis

Michigan Wolverines basketball is looking to bounce back from a 94-86 loss to Long Beach State — which fell to Illinois State, 61-52, Monday — as it begins the Battle 4 Atlantis with a matchup against Memphis.

Head coach Juwan Howard made the trip to the Bahamas, but it’s unclear if he’ll be on the bench at any point this week as he nears a return. Acting head man Phil Martelli has continued to lead the charge during games.

Meanwhile, Memphis will see head coach Penny Hardaway return to the bench Wednesday, after serving a three-game suspension for recruiting violations.

The Tigers are 3-0 with wins over Jackson State (94-77), Missouri (70-55 on the road) and Alabama State (92-75).

On Thursday, Michigan will take on either Arkansas or Stanford, depending on the result of this game and the one those two teams will play. If the Wolverines win, they’ll play at 5 p.m. ET. If they lose, their second contest will take place at 7:30.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Memphis

Date	Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023
Venue	Atlantis Resort’s Imperial Ballroom Arena (3,500)
Time	5 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPN2
On The Call	Kevin Fitzgerald (play-by-play) and Andraya Carter (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Memphis -1, over/under 158.5 points
Kenpom Prediction	Memphis 79, Michigan 78 (47-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn has transitioned into “light contact drills” during practice but hasn’t been fully cleared yet, per assistant Saddi Washington Nov. 16. Martelli said that he won’t return during this tournament. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: Michigan turned the ball over 16 times in its 94-86 loss to Long Beach State Friday night, the most it’s had in a game since an 85-78 win over Northwestern Jan. 15, 2023 (18).

Trend to watch: Michigan is allowing 0.9 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 19th percentile nationally. The Wolverines are in the 72nd percentile in the country in defensive ball-screen volume, meaning opponents are running a lot of them and finding success.

Projected Memphis starters

• #11 – Fifth-year senior guard Jahvon Quinerly (6-1, 175) — The Alabama transfer and former teammate of Burnett’s was the SEC Co-Sixth Man of the Year last season, averaging 8.7 points, a team-high 3.6 assists and 1.9 rebounds per game while shooting 44.4 percent on twos and 35.7 percent on 129 threes. This season, he’s putting up 14 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per tilt. He’s connected on 69.2 percent of his twos and is 6-for-13 from distance. He’s been one of the very best in the country at running ball screens, ranking in the 92nd percentile with 1.2 points per possession (including passes).

• #9 – Sixth-year senior guard Caleb Mills (6-5, 185) — The Florida State transfer started his career at Houston in 2018-19 and has played in 96 games in over five seasons. He came off the bench the first two games but entered the starting lineup in a win over Jackson State. He’s averaging 9.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per outing, while shooting 54.5 percent from inside the arc and 2-of-8 from beyond it. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter but can put the ball on the deck, with 5 of his 8 made field goals coming at the rim.

• #10 – Senior guard Jaykwon Walton (6-7, 206) — The Wichita State transfer has averaged 14.7 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. He led the Shockers with 13.9 points per outing a season ago. A tremendous shooter, Walton connected on 40 percent of his threes and 63.1 percent of his twos last season. He’s at 53.8 percent from deep and 60 percent from inside the arc this year. Walton has a 105 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers, the fourth-best mark in the country per Synergy, and also shoots 64.3 percent at the rim.

• #8 – Senior forward David Jones (6-6, 210) — The St. John’s transfer ranked second on the Red Storm with 13.2 points and 6.8 rebounds last season. The stretch four is fresh off a 22-point, 10-rebound and 3-steal performance in a win over Alabama State, and is averaging 15.7 points and 7.3 boards per contest. He’s shooting just 31.6 percent on twos but 10-of-18 on threes. Really just a threat on the perimeter, Jones has made only 5 of his 15 shots at the rim this season.

• #3 – Redshirt senior center Jordan Brown (6-11, 225) — The Louisiana transfer was named first-team All-Sun Belt last season, when he registered 19.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He’s had a smooth transition to Memphis so far, with 10.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per tilt, while shooting 56 percent from the field (all twos). Ten of his 31 points have come on post-ups and nine from put-backs. He has a 16.3 offensive rebounding rate, which checks in 47th in the country.

Key bench contributors
• #25 – Graduate guard Jayden Hardaway (6-5, 205) — The head coach’s son has contributed 4.3 points per contest this season, averaging 15.3 minutes. He’s been a role player his entire career, mostly as a spot-up shooter. He’s 0-for-5 from three this season, though.

• #2 – Junior forward Nicholas Jourdain (6-9, 220) — The Temple transfer averaged 6.3 points and 4.5 rebounds in 23.1 minutes for the Owls last year. He’s posting 4.3 points and 5 boards per clash with a 62.5 field goal percentage this year.

• #23 – Graduate forward Malcolm Dandridge (6-9, 260) — The former Michigan transfer portal target decided to return to Memphis and has a role similar to the one he played last season, except he started the first two games. He’s averaging 7 points and 3.7 rebounds per outing, shooting 9-for-10 from the field, but as a low-usage, low-minute guy.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Memphis

1. ‘Irked’ Michigan team

Martelli said that Michigan is “not over” its loss to Long Beach State, and that the team is “irked” heading into this week’s three games. We’ll see what exactly that looks like on the floor. It might mean a strong response by this veteran team, and good squads are typically proficient coming off losses. We’re just not sure exactly that the Wolverines are that just yet.

When asked what the emphasis has been after Michigan was torched to the tune of 1.2 points per possession and 92 overall points, he said, “guard someone,” before going into a bit more detail. But those two words pretty much summed it up after the effort on Friday night.

2. Memphis will test Michigan’s areas of focus
Michigan has been bad on the defensive glass and struggled defensively, including in transition. Well, the Tigers push the pace, ranking 20th nationally in tempo with a 15.8-second average possession length and grab 33.6 percent of their own missed shots. Michigan has to prove that being “irked” can lead to playing with more passion and focus against a team that’s physical.

Memphis plays a free-flowing brand of offense, ranking 92nd nationally in isolation volume, but they haven’t been very efficient with those possessions. The Tigers have been shooting an incredible clip from three-point range, 40.3 percent, with 11 threes in two different games in 7 in the other.

Memphis mixes in pressure defense on 17 percent of possessions and has been good on that end of the floor overall. They’ve sped up opponents, who are averaging only 15.3 seconds per trip down the floor. The two-point defense has been stellar, holding teams to 39.7 percent from inside the arc. They also force turnovers and block a lot of shots.

Michigan will have to pick its spots in transition but also not get too out of control.

3. Pressure is on Michigan heading into this event
After the loss to Long Beach State, Michigan’s margin for error is much more slim the rest of the non-conference season. And the Wolverines are in a situation that feels all too familiar. The stretch coming up is extremely tough, too, with games at Oregon, vs. Indiana and at Iowa looming. They can’t fall behind the eight-ball in early-season play like they have each of the last two seasons. Winning a couple games this week is crucial, and to make sure those are good resume-building victories, beating Memphis and playing in the winner’s bracket is key.

Prediction

Hardaway is back, and his team is undefeated, but it hasn’t been tested. Missouri isn’t the same team it was a season ago, and Jackson State and Alabama State are awful. The Tigers have lived off of great shooting, but that could wear off.

This will be a battle of two veteran teams with starting lineups comprised mostly of transfers. Both groups have a lot to prove. Kenpom and Vegas both have this one as essentially a toss-up with Memphis having the slight edge.

It feels like to us, though, Michigan will respond from Friday’s loss and put together a solid performance.

Prediction: Michigan 78, Memphis 73