Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State

Michigan Wolverines basketball (7-13, 2-7 Big Ten) will clash with Michigan State (12-8, 4-5 Big Ten) Tuesday night in East Lansing. Michigan leads the all-time series, 104-88, though it’s all tied up at 4-4 since head coach Juwan Howard took over the Wolverines’ program in 2019-20.

The stakes aren’t as high as they have been in this series in past years, but Howard and his group are excited for the challenge.

“It’s great to have a rivalry game in-state,” Howard said. “This is always fun times for the entire state to really tune in and see two teams that do a really good job of competing for the bragging rights,” the Michigan coach said. “We are looking forward to the competition, which we always do. We expect it’s going to be a very warm, welcoming environment for us when we arrive tomorrow.”

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Date	Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024
Venue	Jack Breslin Student Events Center
Time	9 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Peacock (stream only)
On The Call	Noah Eagle (play-by-play) and Robbie Hummel (analyst)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan State -12, over/under 145.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan State 78, Michigan 67 (17-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: The Wolverines will be without sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, who continues to miss road games due to academic issues, but are healthy heading into Tuesday night’s clash.

Michigan State projected starters

• #11 – Senior guard A.J. Hoggard (6-4, 210) — Averaging 11.6 points, 5 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game, while connecting on 45.5 percent of his twos, 33.3 percent of his 48 threes and 83.1 percent of his free throws. Hoggard produces 0.857 points per possession on ball screens (including passes). His best offense comes on in-between shots, on which he shoots 51.5 percent, and at the rim (51.3). Hoggard has always been a great passer, and his 33-percent assist rate ranks 37th in the country.

• #2 – Graduate guard Tyson Walker (6-1, 185) — Fourth in the Big Ten with 19.3 points per game, Walker is a pure scorer, while he adds 3.1 assists and 2.6 rebounds per clash. He shoots 40.2 percent from long range (97 attempts) and 50.3 percent from inside the arc. He generates 0.988 points per ball-screen possession (including passes) and is fantastic coming around off-ball screens (1.060 points per play). Despite being primarily a jump shooter, Walker can get to the rim, where he shoots a whopping 66 percent.

• #3 – Junior guard Jaden Akins (6-4, 190) — Registering 10.4 points, 4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game, while shooting 51.1 percent on twos and 35.8 percent on 95 three-point tries. Playing mostly off the ball, Akins complements Hoggard and Walker as a spot-up shooter (0.913 points per possession).

• #25 – Graduate forward Malik Hall (6-8, 220) — The fifth-year player is averaging in double figures scoring for the first time in his career (11.2 points per game), adding 5 rebounds and 2.2 dimes per night. He’s connecting on 55.4 percent of his field goal attempts from inside the arc and 31.6 percent of them from beyond it. Hall spots up (0.868 points per play) and posts up (1.188).

• #22 – Senior center Mady Sissoko (6-9, 250) — Posting 4.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, shooting 56.1 percent from the field (all twos). Sissoko’s most common method of scoring comes on cuts. He’s a good offensive rebounder, grabbing 12.3 percent of his team’s missed shots when he’s on the floor, but isn’t very involved in the offense.

Key bench contributors
• #5 – Sophomore guard Tre Holloman (6-2, 180) — Averaging 6 points, 3 assists and 1.4 rebounds in 20.2 minutes per game, Holloman provides a lot of energy and pushes the pace off the bench. However, he doesn’t do a whole lot in the Spartans’ half-court offense, other than hit the occasional three-pointer (23-of-53, 43.4 percent, on the season).

• #15 – Sophomore center Carson Cooper (6-11, 240) — Putting up 3.6 points and 4.8 rebounds per outing, while connecting on 53.5 percent of his two-point attempts (0-of-1 from three). Cooper has been inefficient on his post touches (0.429 points per play).

• #55 – Freshman forward Coen Carr (6-5, 220) — The No. 32 overall recruit in the 2023 class per the On3 Industry Ranking plays 15.8 minutes per game. He averages 4.2 points and 2.5 rebounds per night, shooting 68.1 percent from the field (all twos). He can get out in transition and has success as a cutter.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Michigan State

1. Michigan could have some success inside
Michigan State just hasn’t been its vintage self in recent years, due in part to its lack of production on the interior. The Spartans shoot just 31.4 percent of their shots from beyond the arc but aren’t efficient on the inside, shooting 52 percent on twos (117th in the country). They average 28.6 points per game at the rim, sixth in the Big Ten, but don’t have a real post threat.

Michigan, meanwhile, may be able to do some damage on the inside. Reed has been hit or miss this season but is more skilled than the Spartans’ bigs, and Nkamhoua should have the advantage — especially in terms of physicality — against Hall. The Spartans have struggled on the boards, and Michigan ranks 94th in the country in offensive rebounding rate (31.8 percent).

There’s an opportunity to get some buckets in close, via offensive rebounds or otherwise. The Spartans are 1-5 when allowing opponents to shoot 54 percent or better from inside the arc.

Nkamhoua is going to be one of the keys on offense. He’ll likely have to hit a couple open threes and make some of his patented tough, turnaround jumpers for Michigan to have a chance to hang without McDaniel on the floor.

2. Stopping the ball
Transition defense is always at the top of the scouting report against Michigan State. The Spartans average 16.8 transition points per game, ranking third in the Big Ten. Michigan has had quite a few miscommunications and lacksadasical play this season, allowing for easy buckets on the break, but can’t have it Tuesday night. A prerequisite to beating the Spartans is to stop the ball.

Perhaps a bigger issue in this matchup, considering that Michigan is shorthanded without McDaniel, is stopping the Spartan guards on the dribble overall, whether in transition or in the half court offense. Many of Michigan’s issues this season have started with allowing dribble penetration, forcing help and rotations that are too late.

The Spartans get over 30 points and 8 assists per game combined between Hoggard and Walker. Llewellyn just isn’t moving well enough to keep up consistently, and the Wolverines don’t have many (any?) other backcourt options for road games. Michigan allows 31.1 points at the rim per contest, and it’s already challenging to keep Hoggard and Walker from getting there.

3. The rest of Michigan State’s profile
Michigan State runs in transition when it can but ultimately plays low-possession games. The Spartans rank 34th nationally in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st on defense.

Offensively, MSU limits turnovers and shares the ball with assists on 62.4 percent of made buckets (10th in the nation). The Spartans take just 31.4 percent of their shots from three-point range, where they do shoot a nice clip (36.5 percent), and convert on only 52 percent of their two-point tries.

Defensively, MSU exclusively plays man-to-man and rarely presses. The Spartans do allow a lot of three-point attempts (42.3 percent of field goal attempts), which opens the door for opponents to catch fire from deep (though road teams are shooting just 26 percent from deep in East Lansing this season). The Spartans allow opposing offenses to shoot 31.1 percent on threes and 46.4 percent on twos — both numbers checking in top 50 nationally.

Michigan State just isn’t prolific enough offensively to keep up when its defense doesn’t show up. The Spartans are 0-7 when allowing 1 or more points per possession against high-major opponents.

Prediction

Whether it’s been issues rebounding, defensive lapses or the failure to knock down jump shots, Michigan State has been very inconsistent this season. However, the Spartans are in a much, much better spot than the Maize and Blue, who are in a free fall having lost eight of their last nine games and won just a single contest this month.

Prediction: Michigan State 80, Michigan 62