Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-17, 3-11 Big Ten) is looking to get back on track Saturday against Michigan State (16-9, 8-6) after losing two-straight games over the last week.

The Maize and Blue have been blown off the floor in two-straight road games Nebraska (79-59) and Illinois (97-68) but return home, where they’re 5-7 on the season. Michigan State is 2-5 on the road.

The Spartans trailed by two points at halftime but won going away, 81-62, in the first meeting between the in-state opponents in East Lansing Jan. 30. Michigan will have sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel, who’s currently suspended for road games due to academics, this time around. Under head coach Juwan Howard, the Wolverines are 4-5 against MSU, with all four victories coming at home.

It’s Alumni Day at Crisler Center, with Michigan set to host over 60 former basketball players. Members of the 1964 team that won the Big Ten championship and made the Final Four, the 1974 squad that was crowned conference champions and the 1989 group that won the national championship will be honored.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State

Date	Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	8:07 p.m. ET (possible five-minute slide)
TV / Stream	FOX
On The Call	Gus Johnson (play-by-play) and Jim Jackson (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan State -6, over/under 144 points
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan State 75, Michigan 69 (28-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Junior guard Jace Howard and sophomore guard Youssef Khayat both missed the last game due to illness.

Michigan State projected starters

• #11 – Senior guard A.J. Hoggard (6-4, 210) — Averaging 11.4 points, 5.2 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game, while connecting on 44 percent of his twos and 31.5 percent of his 54 three-pointers. He creates 0.883 points per possession on ball screens (including passes) and 1.30 on isolations.

• #2 – Graduate guard Tyson Walker (6-1, 185) — The Northeastern transfer puts up 18.4 points (fifth-most in the Big Ten), 2.9 assists and 2.7 boards per outing. He shoots 50.2 percent from inside the arc and 37.9 percent on 116 tries from beyond it. He produces 1.005 points per play on pick-and-rolls (including passes) and 1.212 on spot-ups, with the latter mark ranking in the 91st percentile nationally.

• #3 – Junior guard Jaden Akins (6-4, 190) — Registering 11.4 points, 4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per tilt, while shooting 50.4 percent on twos and 39.7 percent on 131 three-point attempts. He has a 59.5 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers, which slots in the 81st percentile in the country.

• #25 – Graduate forward Malik Hall (6-8, 220) — He’s scored 22 and 29 points in each of the last two games — wins over Illinois and Penn State — respectively. He’s averaging 14.1 points per game and shooting 60.9 percent from the floor in wins and 9.7 points with a 42.3 field goal percentage in losses. Hall shoots 58.7 percent on twos and 36.4 percent on 44 threes this season. He averages 12.5 points and 5.2 boards per game. He’s the Spartans’ top post-up threat, with 1.70 points per possession in those situations (including passes).

• #22 – Senior center Mady Sissoko (6-9, 250) — Starts but plays just 18 minutes per game. He puts up 4 points and 5.9 rebounds per clash, shooting 55.4 percent from the field (all twos). He’s not really a threat posting up and shoots just 33.3 percent on hook shots.

Key bench contributors
• #5 – Sophomore guard Tre Holloman (6-2, 180) — Recording 5.4 points and 2.8 assists per game, while connecting on 51.9 percent of his twos and 41.4 percent of his 58 three-pointers. He adds a spark of energy off the bench, usually pushing the tempo with his fresh legs. He can also hit catch-and-shoot jumpers (62.1 effective field goal percentage).

• #15 – Sophomore center Carson Cooper (6-11, 240) — Averaging 3.8 points and 4.6 rebounds in 17.6 minutes per game. He shoots 55.2 percent from the field (all twos).

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Michigan State

1. Dug McDaniel back for the rematch
Michigan led by two points at halftime in East Lansing Jan. 30, shooting 9-of-14 on some tough shots inside the arc, making 5 threes and connecting on over 60 percent of their overall looks. It wasn’t sustainable, and the Spartans won by 19 on their home floor.

Michigan allowed 1 transition point in the first half and 17 in the second half. When playing Michigan State, the scouting report always — always — begins with stopping them from running. The Wolverines have had a tough time doing that on the road under Howard but have done much better at home, winning all four outings at Crisler Center during his tenure.

The issues with transition defense actually stemmed from Michigan missing tough shots and turning the ball over. It starts on offense.

The Maize and Blue also decided not to guard Akins, who nailed 7 threes on 10 tries, and were disjointed in a lackadaisical zone defense. A lot went wrong.

The Wolverines will have McDaniel this time around, which should help create some better shots on offense. It’s not that he’s an All-American or first-team All-Big Ten type player — he’s not — but he’s one of the few players on the team that can create leverage and opportunities for himself and others with anything but a post-up.

McDaniel is producing 1.008 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 82nd percentile nationally. The Wolverines score 19.3 points per game from McDaniel ball screens when he’s in the lineup, the highest mark for any player in the Big Ten. He makes a difference.

“They are a completely different team [with McDaniel],” Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo said. “When you’ve got your best player in half the games and out it’s got to be very, very difficult. It’s something most of us have never gone through.”

Michigan still hasn’t been great, or even close, with McDaniel in the lineup, but it’s been much better than the version of the Wolverines we see on the road. Most of their last two losses — at Nebraska and Illinois — were garbage time, truly remarkable.

2. Who will win on the interior?
Michigan had a real opportunity to win on the inside against the Spartans the first time around. The Spartans don’t have a big man who poses any sort of threat, outside of Hall, who’s been on a tear lately.

Nkamhoua-Hall will be the matchup to watch, just as we wrote before the last meeting. Reed also has an opportunity to do some damage, but it’s hard to know what Tarris is going to show up from one night to the next. The Wolverines posted up the Spartans over and over, especially in the second half, and just didn’t have much success outside of some tough turnarounds from Nkamhoua.

Michigan State allows opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 29 percent of opportunities, ranking 171st in the country. The Wolverines are strong on the offensive glass at 31.7 percent. They’ll have to win on the boards to come out on top.

The Spartans rank 35th in the country in two-point field goal percentage defense (46.1), but their losses indicate that there are opportunities to be had from inside the arc. They’re 1-7 when opponents shoot 54-plus percent on two-pointers. That’s the mark Michigan has to hit.

It’ll also have to knock down some outside shots, and there will be chances. The Spartans let teams shoot 43.5 percent of their field goals from beyond the arc (341st in the country). Make 8 threes or more and this gets interesting.

3. More Michigan State numbers to know
The Spartans rank 25th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 22nd on defense.

They shoot 37.2 percent on threes but don’t take many (30.7 percent of attempts) and share the ball well with assists on 61.5 percent of made buckets. Their 49.7 two-point field goal percentage in league play ranks ninth in the Big Ten, and they draw the least amount of fouls in the conference. Again, Michigan should be able to hold up inside.

The Spartans play slow, ranking last in the Big Ten in tempo during the conference season, despite liking to get out and run when it’s there. They force turnovers on 18 percent of possessions, which helps the transition game.

The Spartans are hot shooting the ball lately, beginning with the win over Michigan Jan. 30, shooting 40.8 percent from long range over the last five games.

MSU is 2-5 in road Big Ten games this season. It’s shooting just 46.4 percent on twos in those contests.

Prediction

Theoretically, this should be a relatively close game all the way through, and Michigan has a chance to pick up its third victory of the calendar year. Even so, the Wolverines are known for their second-half collapses, and it’s not hard to envision one happening Saturday night. Even if it goes down to the wire, the Wolverines haven’t been good in close games, with a 2-6 record in contests decided by two possessions or fewer. There are just so many more scenarios that could play out that result in a Spartan victory than the alternative.

Prediction: Michigan State 74, Michigan 69