Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Minnesota

Michigan Wolverines basketball is 6-7 and looking to get back to .500 Thursday night, with Big Ten play resuming. The foe at Crisler Center is Minnesota (10-3, 1-1 Big Ten), which has won five games in a row with the last four against teams ranking worse than 200th nationally on Kenpom.

Head coach Juwan Howard was uncharacteristically candid in his pregame press conference Wednesday, acknowledging the different issues that have plagued his team in its dismal start to the campaign. It’s the new year, the Big Ten play is back, and he’s energized knowing that the Wolverines need to make a run over the next two months.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Minnesota

Date	Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	9:02 p.m.
TV / Stream	Peacock
On The Call	Jac Collinsworth (play-by-play) and Stephen Bardo (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -6.5, over/under 151.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 79, Minnesota 74

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn was in concussion protocol and missed the McNeese State game. He has practiced since. Junior guard Jace Howard has missed the entire season to this point with a right knee and tibia injury. He hasn’t dressed for a game yet.

Minnesota projected starters

• #0 – Junior guard Elijah Hawkins (5-11, 165) — The Howard transfer has started 68 career college games, including 13 this season. He’s averaging 8.3 points, 7.8 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game, shooting just 39 percent on twos and 32.5 percent on 40 three-point attempts. His 40.9 assist rate ranks fifth in the country, and most of his creation comes on ball screens, on which he’s producing 0.88 points per play including passes.

• #2 – Junior guard Mike Mitchell Jr. (6-2, 185) — The Pepperdine transfer entered the starting lineup the last three games and has exploded for 14, 20 and 18 points, respectively. He’s shooting 41.7 percent on 72 three-point tries and a solid 55.6 percent on two-pointers. He averages 11.3 points, 2.8 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game. He’s seen 81.2 percent of his field goal attempts be jump shots.

• #24 – Freshman guard Cam Christie (6-6, 190) — The former four-star, top-125 recruit out of Illinois is registering 11.3 points, 2.4 assists and 3.6 rebounds per clash. He’s connected on 48.9 percent of his twos and is shooting 41.7 percent on 60 three-pointers. He spots up and occasionally runs ball screens, and 84.6 percent of his shot attempts are jumpers.

• #1 – Sophomore forward Joshua Ola-Joseph (6-7, 215) — In his second year as a Minnesota starter, he’s averaging 10.6 points and 2.8 boards per clash, shooting 66.1 percent on twos and 11-of-19 from three-point range (57.9 percent). While he rarely posts up, he scores on cuts, put-backs and spot-ups. He’s shot 80 percent of his attempts at the rim, where he’s converting at a stellar 71.7-percent clip.

• #3 – Junior forward Dawson Garcia (6-11, 230) — The North Carolina transfer is in his second season with the Golden Gophers, after earning All-Big Ten honorable mention recognition last season. He was out for three games with an ankle injury but returned and played 29 minutes the last time out against Maine. He leads the squad with 17.6 points per game, adding 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He’s shooting 54.7 percent on twos and 7-of-27 on threes (25.9 percent). Garcia draws 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes and makes 83.6 percent of his free throws. The Savage, Minn., native can do it all, thriving in post-ups (0.98 points per play including passes), spot-ups (1.34), isolations (0.7) and cuts (1.1). He’s shooting 66 percent at the rim.

Key bench contributors
#21 – Sophomore forward Pharrel Payne (6-9, 255) — He’s putting up 9.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per outing, while shooting 64.1 percent from the field (all twos). He’s generating 0.81 points per post-up (including passes) and excels on cuts (1.29) and ball-screen rolls (1.6).

• #5 – Redshirt junior forward Isaiah Ihnen (6-9, 220) — The German is averaging 6.6 points and 3.2 rebounds per contest. He’s shooting 40.5 percent on 42 three-pointers and 66.7 percent on 21 attempts from inside the arc. Playing the backup ‘4’ and ‘5,’ he sets up more on the perimeter, spots up and has seen 43 of his 63 field goal attempts be catch-and-shoot jumpers.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Minnesota

1. Stay in front of Elijah Hawkins and Co.
In other words, ‘guard someone.’ Hawkins ranks sixth in the Big Ten and 52nd nationally in ball-screen volume (12.2 possessions per game), and Michigan will have to be able to stay in front of him so it doesn’t have to over-help, because he’s a fantastic passer who will find the open man. Drop coverage may be the answer since Hawkins likes to pass first and shoots just 32 percent on dribble jumpers.

Williams, who pointed to one-on-one defense as a big reason for the McNeese State loss in his postgame media availability, will have to stay in front of Christie, a wiry and athletic freshman who shoots a lot of pull-up jumpers.

2. Sizing up Dawson Garcia and Minnesota’s size
Michigan has a choice to make on who will check Garcia. Since he has more mobility, Nkamhoua is likely to draw the initial assignment, but he, Reed and redshirt sophomore Will Tschetter will all see time on him. Defending without fouling will be key since he’s so crafty.

Minnesota plays big and wants to overwhelm Michigan with its size, like Florida attempted to. Minnesota has been efficient moving the ball (69.5 assist rate, second nationally), shooting the ball (56.8 effective field goal percentage, 16th) and crashing the offensive glass (34.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 48th). But it also turns the ball over on 18.3 percent of its possessions, something Michigan needs to capitalize on.

The competition has to be considered with this Minnesota team that is 1-3 against top-100 teams, but it did go in and shoot 60.7 percent on twos, make 8 threes and drill 18 free throws in a 76-65 win over Nebraska, which ranks 22nd nationally in two-point defense and eighth in effective field goal percentage defense. The Gophers are certainly capable.

3. Minnesota’s defense
Minnesota ranks 100th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Gophers limit three-point attempts (29.5 percent of opponents’ shots come from deep, 18th-fewest in the country), and are allowing teams to shoot just 45.2 percent from inside the arc.

Minnesota has only allowed 1 point per possession or more in four games, but three of those resulted in losses (Missouri, 1.06; San Francisco, 1.19; Ohio State, 1.22). Michigan has been prolific scoring, with a whopping six games of 1.2 points per trip or more. This and the rest of the Big Ten slate will certainly be a test of just how much of Minnesota’s solid statistics on defense have to do with the easy non-conference schedule.

Minnesota plays man-to-man 97.7 percent of the time and applies pressure on only 2.6 percent of possessions, per Synergy.

The Gophers allow 21.4 points per game on ball screens (including passes), the 49th-most in the country, and Michigan ranks 49th nationally with 23.9 ball-screen points per game on offense.

A lot of this game will come down to if Michigan can be efficient on its pick-and-rolls, stay out of foul trouble and hold up on the glass.

Prediction

Minnesota has beaten just one team ranked better than 228th on Kenpom this season. However, the Gophers’ 10 wins are already more than they notched all of last season (nine), showing that they’re much improved.

The next step for head coach Ben Johnson‘s crew is to win a Big Ten road game, something it did just once last season, at Ohio State, and has accomplished only twice in his two-and-a-half-year tenure, with the other being at U-M in December 2021.

Michigan was lifeless against McNeese State and has no depth. It feels like the train could come off the rails at any moment, if it hasn’t already. But the Wolverines are at home, they’re desperate, and Minnesota isn’t any good. U-M wins a close one.

Prediction: Michigan 78, Minnesota 72