Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Nebraska

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-22 overall, 3-16 Big Ten) will close out the regular season with a senior-day tilt against Nebraska (21-9, 11-8) Sunday at Crisler Center. Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off.

Game information: Michigan vs. Nebraska

Date	Sunday, March 8, 2024
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	12:01 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network
On The Call	Connor Onion (play-by-play) and Nick Bahe (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Nebraska -6, over/under 150
Kenpom Prediction	Nebraska 78, Michigan 72 (31-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua is out for the season after undergoing wrist surgery.

Nebraska projected starters

• #30 – Senior guard Keisei Tominaga (6-2, 179) — Averaging 14 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game, while shooting 56.5 percent on twos and 35.9 percent on 167 threes. He has a 52.4 effective field goal percentage when coming off dribble handoffs, ranking fourth in the Big Ten (minimum 50 possessions). His 58.5 eFG% on off-the-dribble jumpers slots in the 96th percentile in the country. The streaky shooter has made 3-plus three-pointers in 12 of 28 games.

• #4 – Junior forward Juwan Gary (6-6, 221) — Registering 12 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest. He’s shooting 59.2 percent on twos and 32.5 percent on 77 three-point tries. He’s mostly a spot-up player who’s made 49 of his 109 field goals from cuts. Seventy three of his field goals have come at the rim, where he shoots 65.2 percent.

• #3 – Junior guard Brice Williams (6-7, 213) — The team’s highest-usage player has had a solid season after transferring in from Charlotte. He’s averaging 12.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists per outing, while connecting on 47 percent of his shots from inside the arc and 38.4 percent of his 112 three-point attempts. He has a 58 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jump shots.

• #53 – Senior forward Josiah Allick (6-8, 231) — The New Mexico transfer is averaging 6.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. His game starts with all-out hustle, and he shines on the offensive glass, where he grabs 9.2 percent of his team’s missed shots. He shoots 56.2 percent from inside the arc and is 8-of-22 from beyond it. He cuts and posts up in the half court offense.

• #51 – Junior forward Rienk Mast (6-10, 248) — Nebraska may not have a true point guard, but Mast helps serve in that role from the high post. He operates up top, averaging 3 assists to go along with his 12.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He shoots 59.8 percent at the rim and 39.5 percent on hook shots.

Key bench contributors
• #10 – Sophomore guard Jamarques Lawrence (6-3, 183) — Averaging 6.8 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per tilt, while shooting 46.4 percent on twos and 35.2 percent on 91 threes. He generates 0.896 points per ball-screen possession (including passes).

• #1 – Sophomore guard Sam Hoiberg (6-0, 183) — Puts up 3.6 points, 3 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 19.8 minutes per game. He shoots 44.2 percent on twos and 32.6 percent on 46 threes.

•  #0 – Junior guard C.J. Wilcher (6-5, 214) — Averaging 8.1 points and 1.6 rebounds in 18.3 minutes per contest. He makes 54.8 percent of his twos and 40.7 percent of his 118 threes — a true gunner off the bench. He’s lethal when coming off dribble hand-offs, with a 56.8 effective field goal percentage in those situations.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Nebraska

1. Can Michigan defend at all?
Nebraska ranks 44th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but plays a unique brand of basketball, which flows through Mast in the high post. The Cornhuskers are tough to defend, evidenced by U-M allowing 1.22 points per possession in a 20-point loss in Lincoln that was even more lopsided than the 79-59 final score indicates.

Nebraska had its way with Michigan, and it started with energy and shots falling early in the game. The Cornhuskers notched 16 offensive rebounds, corralling 43.2 percent of their own missed shots, had 18 assists on 30 made field goals and had a blast while Michigan put on an embarrassing display.

Given Michigan’s offensive limitations, the Wolverines won’t be able to win when allowing 1.2 points per possession. Contesting jumpers from Tominaga and Nebraska’s other shooters — five of whom shoot 35 percent or better from long range — will be key. Not allowing easy cuts to the bucket like the last meeting will also be crucial.

2. Michigan’s offense without Olivier Nkamhoua
Michigan struggled through six road games without McDaniel, and now it hasn’t had Nkamhoua, the team’s second-leading scorer, since the Feb. 17 loss to Michigan State. The offense was already bad, but now it’s extremely limited without someone who can create shots.

Since Nkamhoua was ruled out for the season, Michigan has turned the ball over on 19.9 percent of its possessions. McDaniel is the only Wolverine who can create offense for himself and others, and that’s led to major issues.

Michigan has fallen in love with force-feeding the ball to inefficient players in the post (Reed produces just 0.802 points per post-up, including passes), and the offense has bottomed out. Michigan has scored 0.787 and 0.835 points per possession in its last two games, respectively — its lowest two marks of the season.

The Maize and Blue haven’t won a game without scoring over 1 point per play, and have come out on top in only two when they’re under 1.2 points per possession. Whether it’s getting hot from three or something else, Michigan has to find a way to put points up against a Nebraska team that checks in 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

3. More Nebraska numbers to know
• Nebraska lives by the three and dies by the three, shooting 43.9 percent of its field goal attempts from beyond the arc and making 37.9 percent of them. The Cornhuskers are 4-5 when shooting worse than 32 percent from deep.

• Nebraska also allows a lot of three-point attempts (42.2 percent of field goals, worst in the Big Ten during league play), so there’s opportunity for Michigan to get hot.

• The Cornhuskers allow opponents to shoot just 46.7 percent on two-pointers.

• Nebraska has struggled rebounding all season. During Big Ten play, it’s dead last in offensive rebounding rate (24.2) and 11th on the defensive glass (31.4 percent).

Prediction

ESPN.com has Nebraska as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cornhuskers have struggled away from Pinnacle Bank Arena, going 2-8 in true road games with wins over Kansas State (70th on Kenpom) and Indiana (91st). Michigan hasn’t had much of a home-court advantage this season, though, and the Cornhuskers are looking to end the regular season with a bang.

Prediction: Nebraska 77, Michigan 69