Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. No. 14 Illinois

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-16, 3-10 Big Ten) will be without sophomore starting point guard Dug McDaniel (suspension) Tuesday evening at No. 14 Illinois (17-6, 8-4 Big Ten).

The Fighting Illini are right in the thick of the Big Ten championship hunt, standing second in the league behind Purdue, which is atop the league at 11-2. They’re coming off an 88-80 setback at Michigan State, which snapped a three-game winning streak.

Michigan trailed by 28 points in the first half of a 79-59 blowout loss at Nebraska Saturday and sits in last place in the conference standings.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Illinois

Date	Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024
Venue	State Farm Center
Time	7 p.m. ET (6 p.m. local time)
TV / Stream	Peacock (stream only)
On The Call	Noah Eagle (play-by-play) and Stephen Bardo (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Illinois -15.5, over/under 153.5
Kenpom Prediction	Illinois 85, Michigan 71 (10-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel will miss the game as part of his road game suspension.

Illinois projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard/forward Marcus Domask (6-6) — Registering 15.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, while connecting on 54.6 percent of his twos, 26.1 percent of his 92 threes and 87.4 percent of his free throws. He ranks in the 90th percentile nationally in isolation rate, and produces 1.042 points per possession in those situations. Teams, including Michigan the last time the two teams played, often double team him when he begins to post up alone on one side of the floor. He generates 1.096 points per post-up (including passes).

• #20 – Sophomore guard/forward Ty Rodgers (6-6) — Posting 7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists per clash. He’s connecting on 52.3 percent of his twos and hasn’t attempted a three. He grabs 11.4 percent of his own team’s missed shots while he’s on the floor, which ranks fourth in the country.

• #0 – Fifth-year senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (6-6) — Returned to the lineup Jan. 21 after his reinstatement from suspension. In his second year with the Illini after transferring in from Texas Tech, he’s averaging 20.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game as a do-it-all ball-handler. He’s shooting 57.7 percent on twos and 34.2 percent on threes. Those numbers are 52.2 and 27.7 during Big Ten play, however. His 7 transition points per game lead the nation, according to Synergy.

• #13 – Graduate guard/forward Quincy Guerrier (6-8) — Averaging 10.7 points and 7.4 rebounds per outing, while connecting on 55 percent of his twos and 33.8 percent of his 74 three-point tries. He draws 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes. He spots up and likes to drive left to the rim, where he shoots 58.9 percent.

• #33 – Senior forward Coleman Hawkins (6-10) — Putting up 12.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He’s shooting 48.9 percent from inside the arc and 37.9 percent on 95 attempts from beyond it. He makes 80.8 percent of his free throws and blocks 3.2 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor. He spots up and is used as a pick-and-pop big man.

Key bench contributors
• #10 – Junior guard/forward Luke Goode (6-7) — Averaging 7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, he’s shooting 45.5 percent on just 22 twos and 38.4 percent on 112 threes. He started while Shannon was out of the lineup but has been coming off the bench lately.

• #42 – Redshirt junior forward/center Dain Dainja (6-9) — Registering 5.6 points and 3.2 rebounds in 9.4 minutes per game. He’s made 65.2 percent of his field goal attempts, all two-pointers.

• #4 – Graduate guard Justin Harmon (6-4) — Putting up 6.8 points, 3.1 boards and 1.2 assists in 20.2 minutes per tilt, while connecting on 43.6 percent of his twos and 36.8 percent of his 57 threes.

What to watch for: Michigan basketball vs. Illinois

1. Michigan has to be more physical
Michigan allowed 42 points in the paint and 22 at the free throw line in an 88-73 loss to Illinois at Crisler Center Jan. 18. Afterward, head coach Juwan Howard lamented his team’s lack of physicality.

Illinois scored 13 points from isolations and another 6 on post-ups. Michigan helped a good deal, including bringing double teams, and Illinois did a great job swinging the ball and exposing the Wolverines’ late rotations. Illinois got to the rim at will, finishing with 20 layups/dunks.

The Illini are going to do the same thing in this meeting, knowing that Michigan’s one-on-one defense has been below average. The Fighting Illini average 7.9 points per game off isolations (10th-most nationally). They also love to run, registering 16.2 transition points per game (66th), and they’re especially lethal there with Shannon back in the lineup.

2. Terrence Shannon Jr. is back
Shannon runs and guns, and is athletic enough to play at a ridiculous speed and still make plays. He draws 6.6 fouls per 40 minutes and is a high-level free throw shooter at 79.1 percent. He made 13 of his 16 foul shots when Illinois beat Michigan in double overtime last March in Champaign, so U-M has seen his style of play work firsthand.

Illinois is 4-2 in the six games since Shannon returned to the floor from his suspension. It’s clear that he’s still working back into form and his teammates are adjusting to playing with him again. The offense has continued to be very efficient, with the Illini scoring over 1.2 points per possession over the six-game stretch. Their two losses during that span came when Northwestern shot 11-of-18 from long range in Evanston (96-91 loss) and when the game got away from them late in an 88-80 loss at Michigan State this past Saturday.

Michigan, meanwhile, will be without McDaniel again due to his road game suspension, and the Wolverines are 0-4 without him.

Michigan hasn’t just been bad with no McDaniel, it’s been horrendous. The Wolverines rank 176th in the country in T-Rank’s efficiency ratings during that span. The Wolverines are shooting just 38 percent on twos (worst in the country) and are allowing opponents to make 45.3 percent of their threes (354th).

It’s hard to imagine much of a path to victory here for the Wolverines — there’s a reason why Kenpom has Illinois as a 14-point favorite. They did lead MSU at halftime without McDaniel and hang in for a while at Illinois in January 2022 without All-American center Hunter Dickinson (illness), before falling by 15 points, so there’s a chance it’s competitive for a while.

3. More Illinois numbers to know
Illinois has the sixth-most efficient offense in the country, per Kenpom, and ranks 41st on defense.

The Illini push the pace, slotting 71st in pace but only turn the ball over on 15.6 percent of their possessions (80th). They grab the rebound on a whopping 36.3 percent of their own missed shots (17th) and make 53.8 percent of their two-point looks (59th).

The Illini have seen 39.5 percent of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, with four shooters on the floor most of the time. They’re making 34 percent of those triple tries.

Head coach Brad Underwood‘s crew is famous for making opponents win one-on-one matchups and make tough twos. The Illini allow teams to notch assists on just 40.9 percent of buckets (11th nationally) and shoot only 27.9 percent of their attempts from three-point range (seventh). The Illini are last in the country in turnovers forced (12.9 percent of possessions) but allow teams to shoot just 44.8 percent from inside the arc and 32.9 percent from behind it.

Prediction

Illinois fans hate Michigan, for various reasons they’ve conjured up, and will show out Tuesday night at State Farm Center. They’ll be frothing at the mouth, ready to watch their team against a bad and short-handed Michigan squad that their team already ran off the Wolverines’ home floor last month.

Since Illinois became competitive again in 2019-20, Michigan-Illinois on a Tuesday night has typically been an exciting matchup. But the Wolverines, coming off Saturday’s embarrassment at Nebraska, have little chance to pull off the big upset.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Michigan 61