Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Ohio State

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-21 overall, 3-15 Big Ten) and Ohio State (17-12, 7-11) will meet for a rivalry clash Sunday afternoon in Columbus. Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off.

Game information: Michigan vs. Ohio State

Date	Sunday, March 3, 2023
Venue	Value City Arena
Time	4 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	CBS
On The Call	Spero Dedes (play-by-play) and Jim Spanarkel (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Ohio State -11, over/under 143 points
Kenpom Prediction	Ohio State 78, Michigan 69 (22-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua is out for the season after undergoing wrist surgery.

Ohio State projected starters

• #2 – Sophomore guard Bruce Thornton (6-2, 215) — Was listed as questionable, before not playing or being seen on the bench during Thursday night’s win over Nebraska. He’s averaging 16.2 points, 4.2 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 50.5 percent on twos and 31.1 percent on 148 three-point attempts. He generates 0.939 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 66th percentile in the country.

• #1- Sophomore guard Roddy Gayle Jr. (6-4, 210) — Putting up 13.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists per tilt. He’s shooting 51.1 percent on twos and 27.1 percent on 85 threes. He’s registering 0.941 points per possession on ball screens (including passes) and can slash to the rim, where he makes 62.1 percent of his attempts.

• #12 – Sophomore forward Evan Mahaffey (6-6, 200) — Posting 4.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game, while connecting on 51.8 percent of his shots from inside the arc and 2 of his 16 three-point tries. He mostly scores off of residual action, while serving as a strong rebounder and defender on the wing.

• #10 – Fifth-year senior forward Jamison Battle (6-7, 220) — Averaging 14.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.1 assists per clash. He’s shooting 50.8 percent on twos, 43.3 percent on 178 threes and 94.9 percent on free throws. His 66.5 true shooting percentage during league play ranks third in the Big Ten. Battle mostly spots up, sometimes using off-ball screens, and has a 65.2 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jump shots.

• #34 – Sophomore center Felix Okpara (6-11, 235) — Scores 6 points and adds 6.3 rebounds per night. He makes 59.8 percent of his twos and is 0-for-2 fro deep. He blocks 10.2 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor and is elite on the boards on both ends of the floor. The athletic big scores on cuts (1.234 points per play), put-backs (1.091) and ball-screen rolls (1.103) — not necessarily on traditional post-ups (0.706).

Key bench contributors
• #23 – Senior center Zed Key (6-8, 230) — Puts up 6.9 points and 4.1 rebounds in 15.8 minutes per game. He’s shooting 53.7 percent from inside the arc, 3-of-9 from long range and 71.4 percent from the charity stripe.

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Dale Bonner (6-2, 175) — Started in Thornton’s place last game against Nebraska. He averages 4.3 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game, shooting 27.8 percent on 72 three-pointers.

• #0 – Freshman guard Scotty Middleton (6-7, 190) — The former four-star, top-60 recruit records 4 points and 1.4 rebounds in 15.3 minutes per game. He shoots 32 percent from inside the arc but can hit shots from deep, at a 38.9-percent clip on 54 attempts.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Ohio State

1. Interim bump
Since Ohio State fired Chris Holtmann and promoted Jake Diebler to interim head coach, the Buckeyes are 3-1 with stunning wins over Purdue at home and at Michigan State (their first Big Ten road win in over a calendar year). They also lost at Minnesota during that stretch, showing that the road woes have continued. But this one’s at home, and Ohio State — which does have some talent despite the results under Holtmann — is playing better basketball. It bounced back with a nine-point victory over Nebraska Thursday evening in Columbus.

Since Feb. 18, Diebler’s first game in charge, Ohio State ranks 39th in the country in adjusted efficiency, per T-Rank. The Buckeyes are doing everything just a bit better — playing more efficiently on offense (51st nationally) and defense (66th). It’s also a small sample size, and it’s still unlikely that they dig themselves out of the big hole they found themselves in with an under-.500 conference record.

2. Ohio State looking for revenge
Michigan got the better of Ohio State during a MLK Day matinee at Crisler Center Jan. 15, one of two wins for the Wolverines this calendar year. Michigan has trended downward since then, though, and now is without Nkamhoua for the rest of the season. Ohio State, meanwhile, has some late life for a second straight season, and Diebler is stressing the importance of the team’s final home game in which they’ll honor seniors.

“We know how important this game is,” Diebler said. “Certainly to celebrate our seniors, certainly because we’re nearing the end of our regular season. But make no mistake, this game is important because it’s ‘The Team Up North.’ And so we own that, we are leaning into that.”

Battle, the Buckeyes’ most talented player who just put up 32 points against Nebraska, gave the perspective of the locker room on how it’s viewing this tilt.

“They got us on Martin Luther King Day,” Battle said. “And we remember that. It left a bad taste in our mouth. Obviously, facing ‘The Team Up North,’ it’s big. It’s personal, and I think we’re gonna take that to heart.”

Michigan is going to have to match that and then some to notch its first road victory since Dec. 10 at Iowa.

3. Michigan offense has to click
Every now and then, good teams play a bad game and lose. Occasionally, bad teams play a solid game (and win or lose). Michigan played well enough to beat Wisconsin last month, and competed hard enough to stay within striking distance but never get over the hump in a loss to Purdue last Sunday. Those were the outliers. Then there are the extremes on the other end, like Michigan’s worst performance of the season, an 82-52 loss at Rutgers Thursday.

Michigan’s offense scored a season-worst 0.787 points per possession and was out of sorts, turning the ball over on 21.2 percent of its possessions and posting a brutal 36.8 effective field goal percentage. Everything went wrong.

But just like Michigan didn’t carry over its performance from the Purdue game to the next time it played, this one can be completely different than what transpired in Piscataway. It starts with running competent offense, the one thing the Wolverines have been able to do from time to time, given that the defense ranks 14th in the Big Ten and 187th in the country. Ohio State is 2-10 when opponents score 1.1 points per possession or higher.

Michigan also has to limit second-chance opportunities against a Buckeye squad that rebounds 29 percent of its own misses.

Prediction

Ohio State is a bad team that’s playing better recently. Michigan is even worse and trending in the wrong direction, highlighted by a key season-ending injury to Nkamhoua. The Buckeyes will continue their momentum with a senior-day win.

Prediction: Ohio State 77, Michigan 69