Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Rutgers
Two struggling teams will take the floor Saturday afternoon at Crisler Center, with Michigan Wolverines basketball (7-14, 2-8 Big Ten) hosting Rutgers (10-10, 2-7 Big Ten).
The Maize and Blue have lost nine of their last 10 games, while Rutgers has dropped three straight and six of eight. The Scarlet Knights possess a great defensive outfit but have issues on the offensive end, while Michigan has been poor on offense but decent offensively.
Fans are encouraged to wear pink as Michigan shows support for breast cancer awareness. Pink poms will be handed out (while supplies last).
Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.
Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Rutgers
| Date | Saturday, Feb. 3, 2024 |
| Venue | Crisler Center |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV / Stream | Big Ten Network |
| On The Call | Connor Onion (play-by-play) and Jess Settles (analyst) |
| Radio | Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com |
| On The Call | Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color) |
| Betting Line | Michigan -4.5, over/under 140 |
| Kenpom Prediction | Michigan 71, Rutgers 66 |
Michigan projected starters
Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.
Michigan injuries: None
Rutgers projected starters
• #0 – Sophomore guard Derek Simpson (6-3, 165) — Averages 9.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, while shooting 33.1 percent on twos and 28.3 percent on threes. He’s solid in ball-screen situations, producing 0.912 points per possession (including passes). He just hasn’t been efficient at creating his own offense despite being an athletic ball-handler, shooting 31.9 percent on jump shots, 29.4 percent on runners and 30.4 percent at the rim.
• #24 – Graduate guard Austin Williams (6-4, 205) — The Marist (2017-19), Hartford (2019-22) and Florida International (2022-23) transfer is at his fourth stop, sitting out last season at FIU due to a knee injury. He’s posting 5.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per contest, and shooting 54.7 percent from inside the arc and 5-of-14 from beyond it. He’s not much of a threat with his jump shot, but he uses high pick-and-rolls to drive and get to the rim, where he’s making 52 percent of his looks.
• #3 – Senior forward Mawot Mag (6-7, 216) — The Australian is known as a high-level defender. He’s averaging 8.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per clash, shooting 39.4 percent on twos and 27 percent (10-of-37) from three. He’s a low-usage and inefficient player on offense.
• #5 – Senior forward Aundre Hyatt (6-6, 235) — Putting up 12 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He’s shooting 37.1 percent on twos and 33 percent on 115 three-point attempts, with eight games of 3-plus made triples. He mostly spots up but does a bit of everything offensively.
• #11 – Senior center Clifford Omoruyi (6-11, 240) — Registering 10.8 points and 9 rebounds per tilt, while connecting on 51.6 percent of his two-point shots. He’s made 1 of his 5 looks from deep. He’s an elite rebounder and rim protector (his 12.9-percent block rate ranks fourth in the country). He scores 2.1 points per game off of put-backs and 4.4 from post-ups. His hook shot yields limited results (31.4 percent), but he’s 65.3 percent at the rim.
Key bench contributors
• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Noah Fernandes (5-11, 180) — The UMass transfer averages 7.1 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 23.8 minutes per game, recently being taken out of the starting lineup. He shoots 36.2 percent on twos and 29.1 percent on 55 three-point shots.
• #1 – Freshman guard Jamichael Davis (6-2, 175) — Registers 5.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 21.7 minutes per contest. He shoots 40.4 percent from inside the arc and 22.7 percent from behind it. His 21.8-percent assist rate is the second-highest on the team behind Simpson.
• #10 – Freshman guard Gavin Griffiths (6-8, 193) — The former top-50 Michigan target averages 6.3 points and 2 rebounds in 17.2 minutes per game, shooting 41.7 percent on twos and 27.7 percent on 65 three-point tries.
• #13 – Sophomore forward Antwone Woolfolk (6-9, 225) — Posting 3.6 points and 3.4 rebounds in 14.6 minutes per game as Rutgers’ backup center. He shoots 52.1 percent on twos and is 1-of-5 from long range.
What to watch for: Michigan vs. Rutgers
1. Weakness on weakness
Something will have to give when Rutgers has the ball. The Scarlet Knights rank 296th nationally in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency — one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. They have a 43.4 effective field goal percentage (357th in the country), 28.4 three-point percentage (345th), 43.8 two-point percentage (350th) and 64.7 free throw percentage (342nd).
The only positives for head coach Steve Pikiell‘s team is that it’s adequate at limiting turnovers, giving the ball away on 17.1 percent of possessions (160th) and good on the offensive glass, grabbing 31.6 percent of its misses (99th).
Rutgers doesn’t have a shooter that makes greater than 33 percent of his threes (even low-volume players), with Hyatt leading the way at 33 percent on 115 tries. Nobody with more than 5 attempts makes two-pointers at a clip better than 55 percent.
The Scarlet Knights often dump the ball into Omoruyi in the post, let him go to work, try to corral an offensive rebound and live with the results.
Rutgers scores just 0.9 points per possession in Big Ten games, the worst mark in the league. Michigan is giving up 1.16 against conference opponents (13th), frequently allowing shooters to get hot, so this might be a breath of fresh air on that side of the floor.
The Wolverines have given up 0.9 points per possession or less just once this season, in a 92-62 win over Youngstown State, while Rutgers has hit 1.16 points per play on offense just once, in an 85-63 win over Howard.
2. Rutgers’ elite defense
Rutgers finished sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season and ranks seventh this year, despite having a horrible offensive squad.
The Scarlet Knights force long possessions, notch steals on 13.1 percent of them (eighth nationally), and limit opponents to a 46.6 effective field goal percentage (22nd). Opponents shoot just 30.8 percent on threes (26th) and 46.9 percent on twos (46th), while getting 12.4 percent of their shots blocked (34th).
3. Where can Michigan have success?
Rutgers uses a lot of help on defense, which should free up shooters. The Scarlet Knights see opponents shoot 42.9 percent of their field goal attempts from long range, ranking 355th in the country. Michigan takes 39.1 percent of its shots from beyond the arc, converting at a 37.3-percent clip (33rd-best mark in America), and could take advantage.
It’s hard to imagine Michigan having a lot of success getting to the rim, where Rutgers grades out in the 85th percentile in the country on defense. The Scarlet Knights will look to help and force turnovers, and Michigan has had issues both hanging onto the ball on the interior and making smart passes.
Ball security and making jump shots are the two biggest keys when Michigan has the basketball.
Prediction
The loser of this game will come out of the weekend in last place in the Big Ten. The winner will sit at 13th in the league and have some decent vibes for at least a day or two. Michigan is so out of contention that a win won’t do much more than that, while Rutgers has a slim chance of making something of this season (but is running out of time).
Michigan should hit enough shots at home, and the Wolverines match up as well as they could on defense (considering how bad Rutgers has been on the offensive end).
Prediction: Michigan 70, Rutgers 60
