Where Michigan stands in Saturday morning bracket projections
Michigan basketball (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten) hasn’t played a game in nearly 48 hours, after being eliminated by Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament second round Thursday, but the Wolverines (and the fan base) are on the edge of their seats, hoping to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
After Thursday’s shocking loss to the Hoosiers, experts were still ‘reasonably confident’ that Michigan would make the NCAA Tournament field, still residing on the ‘last four byes’ line, meaning it would avoid the First Four in Dayton. Now that the bubble has gotten more complicated and teams like Indiana, SMU, Texas A&M and Virginia Tech notching victories Friday, there are some mixed reviews on where Michigan stands.
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ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi, who’s ranked 55th among bracketologists in terms of accuracy according to BracketMatrix.com’s rankings, had Michigan in the ‘last four byes’ category late Friday afternoon. Despite no teams moving into the field, by 9:30 p.m., Lundardi had moved the Wolverines into the ‘last four in,’ with Notre Dame (didn’t play), Wyoming (lost to Boise State) and Indiana (didn’t play another game after beating Illinois in the early afternoon) jumping them. There was no explanation given for the movement.
That’s where the Maize and Blue stand in his Saturday morning update, too, with a pair of spots (SMU, which is still alive in the AAC Tournament and Xavier, which was eliminated Wednesday) below them.
Meanwhile, The Athletic‘s Brian Bennett has Michigan still in the ‘last four byes’ as an 11 seed facing sixth-seeded USC. Bennett is the 26th-most accurate bracketologist over the last five years. He knows the committee isn’t scared of putting high-loss teams in the field ahead of squads with better-looking records. The Wolverines have five Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 victories rank 34th in the NET … and still are likely going to make the Big Dance.
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“There have been loads of examples of teams with 14 losses earning at-large bids; the 2011 field alone had five of ‘em,” Bennett wrote. “We’ve even seen a pair of 15-loss teams get in: 2018 Alabama (19-15, a 9 seed) and 2019 Florida (also 19-15, a 10 seed). Two teams have made the tournament despite going just 16-14: 1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia. So there’s nothing that would prevent the selection committee from choosing the barely-over .500 contenders this season.
“Not all won-loss records are built the same, of course. As committee chairman Tom Burnett said on Wednesday, echoing just about every chairman before him, the three most important things for the selection process are: who’d you beat, who’d you play, and where did you play them. We talk so much about teams’ performance in the quads and metrics that sometimes we lose sight of the ‘who’d you play’ part.”
Sporting News’ Bill Bender has Michigan projected the same as Bennett — an 11 seed with a bye. Bally Sports has the Wolverines as an 11 seed in the First Four, showing that Lunardi isn’t the only one thinking similarly.
The lone bracketologist we’ve seen with Michigan out of the field of 68 is CBSSports.com’s Jerry Palm, who ranks 100th in terms of accuracy over the last five years. He has the Wolverines as the second team out.
