Michigan faces tough Sweet Sixteen matchup against 2 seed Villanova

Michigan comes in with a 19-14 overall record. Before the tournament, many opposing fans were upset at the Wolverines getting in the tournament at 17-14. Michigan proved themselves after beating 6 seed Colorado State and 3 seed Tennessee in the first weekend. Despite the salted feelings of many outside the program, Michigan is headed to a fifth straight Sweet Sixteen. It’s hard to win in March. There are seniors graduating around the country who have never sniffed a NCAA tournament, let alone be successful in one. Michigan has a tough weekend to get to another Final Four, and it starts against a veteran Villanova team.

Villanova comes in 28-7 overall, placing 2nd in the Big East. As a 2 seed, Villanova earned the right to compete against much lesser competition in the first rounds. The Wildcats defeated 15 seed Delaware by 20 points, and then faced 7 seed Ohio State in the Round of 32. Villanova’s victory over the Buckeyes was well earned after absorbing late runs, and hitting big shots. Villanova has been very good in the NCAA tournament over the last several years. Recent national titles in 2016, winning at the buzzer, and in 2018 against Michigan. This Villanova team does not have multiple 1st round picks like those teams, but they are confident and play well as a cohesive unit on both ends.

Michigan vs Villanova Statistical Overview

PACE: Villanova plays at one of the slower paces in the country, averaging 65.8 possessions per game which ranks 342nd out of 358 teams.

TEAM OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY: Villanova scores 0.985 points per possession (PPP), ranking 24th in the country.

AFTER TIME OUTS: Villanova is very good executing after time outs. They score 1.005 PPP which ranks 9th nationally, and 3rd among high major programs.

SPOT UP SITUATIONS: When spotting up, Villanova scores 1.035 PPP which ranks 26th nationally.

PICK & ROLL BALLHANDLER: When Villanova attacks with the ballhandler, they score 0.928 which ranks 13th in the country.

Villanova utilizes Spot Ups and P&R ballhandling 50% of the time on offense, making them one of the more efficient offenses in the country while taking care of the basketball with a low turnover margin.

TEAM DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY: Villanova allows 0.844 PPP, ranking 68th in the country.

DEFENSE AFTER TIME OUTS: Villanova is great offensively out of time outs, and they are great defensively as well. They allow 0.717 PPP which ranks 15th in the country.

TRANSITION DEFENSE: Villanova is very good at stopping up-tempo basketball teams, and not allowing positive plays in transition due to disciplined team defense. They rank 18th nationally defending transition, allowing 0.877 PPP.

DEFENDING CUTTERS: When defending cutters, Villanova struggles, allowing 1.291 PPP which ranks 323rd nationally.

TRAPPING THE POST: When they elect to trap and double/triple team the post, teams score 1.154 PPP which ranks 327th in the country.

Villanova Main Personnel

The guard matchup is a bit worrisome. In the first two tournament games against Colorado State and Tennessee, the opposing guards were not physically imposing. Michigan’s guards took advantage of the mismatch against smaller defenders, overwhelming them with their athleticism. Villanova has really big guards, so if there is a mismatch defensively, the Michigan offense needs to exploit the bigger and slower guards on the other end. Villanova’s guards do a good job putting opposing defenders in compromising defensive situations. Michigan has to be disciplined and sound or they will risk getting exploited.

#2 Collin Gillespie: Gillespie is a 6’3″ 195 pound guard out of Pennsylvania. He comes in averaging 16.3 points 3.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 44.7% shooting from the field, and 43.1% shooting from the 3pt line. Gillespie has shown to be one of the better overall guards in the country. He is efficient, takes care of the basketball, and the team follows his lead. Even though he is just a guard, he is one of the best players in the country when posting up. Villanova scores 1.243 PPP when Gillespie is posting up, which ranks 62nd nationally. Michigan guards must do a good job at communicating and not getting buried under the basket against him. Must play him physical, and use quickness when defending the dribble without fouling.

#5 Justin Moore: Moore is a 6’4″ 210 pound guard out of Maryland. He comes in averaging 15.3 points and 5.2 rebounds on 40.7% shooting from the floor and 36.1% from the 3pt line. Moore has a 50/50 ratio between 3pt shot and 2pt shot attempts. Almost 63% of his usage comes from spot ups and attacking off the pick & roll, ranking in the low 70s for percentile in each category. Moore does not utilize it very much but he is ranked #2 in the country in off ball screening, averaging 2.067 PPP. He is one of Villanova’s better defenders, a junkyard dog who does the little things and whatever it takes to win.

Secondary Personnel

#23 Jermaine Samuels: Samuels is a 6’7″ 230 pound forward out of Massachusetts. He comes in averaging 10.3 points and 5.9 rebounds on 46% shooting from the floor and 25.3% shooting from the 3pt line. The redshirt senior has had a good couple of tournament games, averaging 16 points and 8.5 rebounds on 66% shooting and 60% shooting from 3pt range. Samuels has a balanced game, and he will attack and get his shot up in multiple ways. This will be another tough matchup for Moussa Diabate, as he always gets matched up against the top opposing forward. The season has prepared him well for this moment after guarding some of the top power forwards in the country.

#14 Caleb Daniels: Daniels is a 6’4″ 210 pound guard out of New Orleans. He comes in averaging 10.1 points and 3.3 rebounds on 46.2% shooting from the floor and 39.4% from 3pt range. Daniels has shown up for Villanova when they needed him most. Against St Johns and Providence, he hit big shots, scoring 19 and 20 points. Almost 40% of his offense comes from spot up shooting, so he is usually playing off of Gillespie and Moore. Daniels ranks 268th nationally in spot up shooting, scoring 1.177 PPP.

#43 Eric Dixon: Dixon is a 6’8″ 250 pound forward out of Pennsylvania. He comes in averaging 9.6 points and 6.5 rebounds on 49.8% shooting from the field and 48% from the 3pt line. In the last two games he has averaged 12.5 points and seven rebounds on highly efficient shooting. In the previous ten games, Dixon has shot no more than two 3pt shot attempts in a single game. Hunter Dickinson is likely to be matched up with Dixon, and I would not be surprised if Villanova tries to pull Hunter away from the basket in the pick and roll game. Dixon can shoot well at 48%, and will not be surprised if he shoots more 3pt shots against Michigan.